2 Homes, 1 Dog

There's a new walkstreet duplex/lot sale up at 320 17th Place.

One year ago, someone with ambitions to perhaps develop the property (a 1.5-size lot at 4050 sq. ft.) grabbed it for $2.7m. Now, you can take it for $2.579m.

That's where our analysis ends, though, for now.

We really mentioned this home so we could share the art shot here from the kitchen.

We call it "Still Life with Dog (MLS)."

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UPDATE: Turns out our friends at Curbed LA have noted a trend in pet pics on the MLS. See "Lost Pets of the MLS."

Boo!

Are you sitting at your desk Friday in costume?

What will you do on Halloween night?

With or without kids?

Those are the sorts of questions MBC is inviting readers to answer in this open thread today.

Tell us about your Halloween traditions and plans, particularly those with a local angle.

Your blog author is a bit blown away by the manner in which Halloween has grown into such a landmark holiday. Strings of Halloween lights going up October 1? That really, really doesn't seem familiar from our childhood.

But it's all good. It's an autumn festival, and that sort of thing does have deep roots, ghouls or no ghouls.

What are you up to today and tonight?

Some Sales Stack Up

You will rarely see periods as bereft of sales as the first half of October, when MBC noted just 2 SFRs west of Sepulveda heading into escrow. (See "MB Market Update for 10/15/08.") There were various reasons, many found on the front page of your dog trainer.

The second half of the month has seen several more buyers step up.

We count 10 sales (new escrows) after Oct. 15, and there are a couple more days left for more deals to post. Also, one more listing that previously canceled (341 10th) popped up in escrow, a deal we will mark in our spreadsheets as occurring in the second half of October, too, raising the sales to 11 for the second half, 13 for October so far.

As we follow these through to potential closed sales, we'll be watching to see if today's buyers are demanding substantial, additional price cuts to make deals in this unsteady environment.

Worth noting: among the lucky 11 so far in the second half, 4 have experienced failed escrows previously.

(Click on highlighted addresses – only some can be viewed at this stage – for more pics & details via Redfin.)


Busy Trees

It is remarkable to see 3 sales occur in a cluster on the busy streets of Valley and Pacific:

• 2905 Valley (pictured), a spiffy but dated 3br/2ba, 1500 sq. ft. home that tried earlier this year at $1.239m. It took 60 days off, came back at $1.099m and made a deal within 3 weeks.

• 2622 Pacific, a 3br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft. remodel last at $1.299m that's now trying to close a deal for a second time since its return to the market in mid-September (one escrow failed, new buyers this time).

• 2305 Pacific, an unusually laid out remodel with 4br/4ba and 2885 sq. ft., last at $1.449m.

• 560 35th, a Craftsman with 6br/6ba and 4100 sq. ft. that drew Mrs. MBC's attention in mid-July when it started at $2.425m (she is not objective – she likes Crafstman). When it cut recently to $2.125m, this one was the least pricey of the $2m+ listings in the Trees, positioning that seems to correlate with fairly quick sales these days.

Sandy Selections

• 220 19th (pictured) is one of those gorgeous west-of-Highland luxury walkstreet homes that have not been moving recently (see "A Flood West of Highland"). It began at $5.2m, lingered 111 days and cut to $4.850m before making a deal.

• 1807 Highland very likely has a date with a bulldozer. After 100+ days, this half-lot (1350 sq. ft.) on a busy street was at $1.099m.

• 128 6th will be scraped, too, unless some charity purchased the cute little early-1900s cottage for $3m. This one fell out of escrow recently when priced at $3.5m.

• 341 10th has been offered in some form for most of the past year. It's a stylish remodel with a main house offering around 2300 sq. ft., plus a dated rental unit in back. It began at $3.3m, cut to $2.799m over the months, canceled, and came up recently again in escrow.

Hills Alive

It's always hot or cold in the Hill Section for some reason. Weeks go by with no sales activity, and then you get a burst:

• 755 11th (pictured) is the "Georgian" that was featured just last weekend by MBC, offering 5br/5ba and 5200 sq. ft. on an ocean-view lot with a sports court. It had been on the market nearly 5 months, some say because it needs a complete interior renovation; last at $2.999m.

• 913 8th is in its second escrow now (see "Down Hill"), last at $2.249m.

• 312 S. Dianthus is also in its second escrow, last priced at $2.850m, fully $899k below its highest point (see "How Quickly Things Change" for more on its fluctuating prices over past months).

We'll follow up on these individually or, perhaps, as a group in coming weeks to see how they proceed.

Close Shaves in the Trees

Several active listings in the Tree Section show the recent deceleration of local home prices.

In some cases, same-house sales will actually show a reversal in the market – the first clear signs of the bubble deflating and pushing prices backward in time.

(As always, click on any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.)


Not Worth What They Once Were

These are quite obviously tough times to sell, but these 3 listings have recently entered the fray nonetheless, all offered below their recent acquisition prices. These are not really "close shaves," they're taking off layers of skin:

• 3109 Laurel (pictured) is a little cottage that's officially a short sale. Purchased for $1.375m in April 2006, now priced at $1.199m (-$176k/-13%).

• 570 36th was purchased for $1.306m just last year (May 2007), now priced at $1.255m(-$51k/-4%), with the added entreaty, "Bring all offers!"

• 864 14th is new on market this week – purchased for $1.417m in July 2006, now up at $1.358m (-$59k/-4%).

Cutting It Close

These 3 offerings have been around somewhat longer than the 3 above, but aren't priced much above the levels at which they were acquired between 2004-2007.

• 2700 Pacific (pictured) was purchased well before the local bubble was finished inflating, at $1.695m in May 2004. The sellers tried for $2.099m when they started in May, but the listing is down now to $1.799m, where it has been stuck since July. That's just +$104k/+6% if they get it.

• 3212 Blanche went for $1.8m in February 2005, but supply of new and newer homes sure looks different today. It's now offered for $1.849m (+$49k/+3%).

• 2900 Maple was purchased for $2.555m in Feb. 2007 by a builder who intended to raze the decent house, split the double-lot and develop it. That's not happening. Now offered at $2.595m (+$40k/+1.5%)

Not Too Far Up from '05

Finally, we have 3 more current offerings, all purchased in 2005, each of which is up for about $200k more than the sellers paid. All are worth watching because any or all of them might slip down to 2005 prices to get a deal done.

• 1208 Oak is a nice home with a big location issue – "wrong" side of Oak and no residential neighbors (see "This Home Is an Island"). Sellers paid $1.449m in March 2005, and now request $1.650m (+$201k/+14%).

• 1400 Elm is a late-90s home with 5br/4ba and 3100 sq. ft. It was purchased for $1.7m in May 2005. Sellers tried last year as high as $2.35m. It's now lingering at $1.949m (+$249k/+15%).

• 751 26th is a newer home for which the current owners paid $2.1m in April 2005, a sizable bump over its price when brand-new in 2001: $1.475m (+$625k/+42%). It is now nearing 100 DOM at $2.3m (+$200k/+9%), where it may be a bit lost in the crowd.

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Update on Some Short-Term Holds

In MBC's early days, we used to run a feature about sellers with the "Two Year Itch." (See our most recent two-year-itch update, from February.)

We defined these two-year itchers as folks who were looking to get out of a home they had remodeled for a profit, or who just wanted to cash out on the appreciation they had seen by simply living in their homes for a spell at a fortuitous time.

We told some tales in 2007, in particular, of people walking with some nice checks. (Scan down a bit in the left-hand column and click the "Label" for "two-year itch" for more.)

There haven't been many of those stories recently.

Short-term holds aren't too profitable right now, in most cases. Consider our most recent story of this type, "Short-Term Holds (Sand)" from June.

Then, we looked at 14 Sand Section resales on the market that had been held 3 years or less and/or had been substantially remodeled recently before hitting the market.

We figured that a sample size like that would net us some useful data on the Sand Section's general rate of appreciation over a few years.

We were mostly wrong to think we'd get good data. The market hasn't cooperated.

Of those 14 listings, 6 now are still active, 5 have canceled, and just 3 have sold. (Actually one, 417 28th, appears to be stuck in a long-running escrow.)

There's virtually no useful market data coming out of that bunch, because only one closed sale (1501 Crest, $1.470m) offered a direct comparison to a prior purchase price (July 2006-July 2008: +7%). Sure, +7% over 2 years is nice, but it's just one data point.

The other closed sale was a recent big-time remodel – 448 27th, which closed 17% down from its start price, selling for $1.725m. That's good money, but it was the lowest PPSF (at $651/PSF) for a Sand Section listing for months – owing to the home's quirk: 2 bedrooms amid 2650 sq. ft. of living space.

MBC will keep watching the Sand, where inventory is growing appreciably, and we'll report back if we can get more data for any reasonable analysis.

Meantime, we're watching the Tree Section, where several current listings are now near, or under, their recent acquisition prices. Stay tuned...

Open Forum, Politics Edition (10/27-11/4)

You may have noticed recently that politics have begun to bleed into the discussions here at MBC.

Normally we steer clear of that stuff, as it is generally far afield from real estate.

With about a week to go before Election Day, it seems like time to open up the gates. Let's talk politics, as macro or micro as anyone pleases.

To tee things up a bit, we'll raise 3 issues:

PRESIDENT – Someone has to take over for a president who saw the housing/credit bubble inflate and pop under his watch. The free-marketeers he brought to Washington, D.C., have now joined the ranks of the world's leading socialists, having taken over Fannie and Freddie (many trillions at stake), having begun to bail out banks and having socialized losses on a historic scale already. And they're just getting started. Give 'em a few more weeks.

The senator from Illinois takes a populist line on the mortgage/housing crisis, but seems a few steps slower than the current administration in his proposals to deal with it. He's being expressly labeled a "socialist" by his opponent.

The senator from Arizona keeps trying to push ahead, recently offering one of the worst ideas we've heard for dealing with the crisis, which would simultaneously reward bad lenders and bad borrowers while pummeling house prices and taxpayers. (See "Buy Up the Bad.") Of course, given the all-consuming nature of the financial crisis, the McCain plan could well be the Next Big Thing out of D.C., regardless of who wins.

Bonus points to the Arizona senator for providing an object lesson on bubbles to America... Gov. Palin's popularity, in this case – from superstar to albatross in a matter of weeks.

STATE MEASURE: We're straining here to find a state ballot measure that matters to housing. What we find is Proposition 12, which provides housing assistance to war veterans. (That phrase has new meaning these days, doesn't it?)

You're asked to OK bonds totaling $900 million to help 3,600 vets, according to the nonpartisan state Legislative Analyst. This could ultimately cost $1.8 billion. However, historically, this same veterans home-loan program has always been paid for entirely by participating veterans, with no cost to taxpayers. Maybe that will remain so in the future.

LOCAL MEASURE: Your property taxes are at issue with Measure BB.

Now, don't worry, taxes aren't going up if BB passes. They just aren't going down.

BB extends a previously approved local property tax boost for 12 years. A new $67.5 million school bond would be issued.

Of that, $12.7m would retire a prior bond debt, $37.8m would go to construction efforts, renovating Mira Costa High School, and about $17m would be reserved for design and support of construction, with a cushion for contingencies and price inflation.

BB needs a 55% vote to pass. There is little organized opposition, though local gadfly/school board member/recall subject Bill Eisen did offer this to MBC regarding BB:

The district does not dispute that construction of all of the Measure BB projects will cost more than the amount of the bonds that are issued but is saying that it will limit the construction to the amount of the bonds. Unfortunately, the district has not provided a detailed cost estimate of each individual project, including square footage, which makes it difficult for us to show what can and cannot be built with the bond money. I am concerned that once the reconfiguration of Mira Costa is begun and the single story classrooms are torn down Mira Costa will be left with only a half-built high school requiring another bond measure to complete the work.

For responses to Frequently Asked Questions about Measure BB, see the supporters' website here.

Sunday Opens (10/26)

In between heats of the pumpkin races on Sunday, you should have time to drop in on an open house or two.

(Pumpkin races? Click here for the official site and here for last year's MBC story on the races' inaugural run downtown.)

Just as we had a few listings last weekend that were quite near each other, allowing for efficient shopping, this Sunday we point to a few listings within steps of each other in the Hills and Sand. The first option in the Trees is quite close to downtown.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like, what you don't like, what you'd change if you owned a particular home, and so on. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

There's nothing new and open in the Hills now, but two neighbors are worth a drop-by.

755 11th offers 5br/5ba and 5200 sq. ft. on an ocean-view lot with a sports court. The "Georgian" style on the exterior gets points for uniqueness. The 80s interior – wait, is that blue shag? – requires a deduction. Now at $2.999m, down $400k (-12%) from a $3.399m start in early June (5 months now). Open Sun. 1-4pm.

724 11th is a fairly large (4br/5ba, 3300 sq. ft.) home with ocean views, but a bit of an East Manhattan look at the curb. (Thinking much further east, the listing says the home design has a "French influence.") Now at $3.199m, down $300k (-9%) from $3.499m in late February (8 months now). Open Sun. 2-4pm.


Sand Section

Two comparably sized, neighboring cottages in the South End walkstreets are open Sunday. Some differences (and similarities) were discussed just the other day in "Awkwaaard!" It'll be easy to drop by both yourself to compare and contrast – please share your comments here.

429 7th is a 4br/3ba, 2125 sq. ft. remodel with a floor plan that, according to the listing:

... is great for family living with 4 bedrooms on the second level including a very spacious master suite with extensive woodwork.

That's language we took to be a dig, intended or not, at 424 5th (see below), whose layout is unconventional. 7th starts at $2.399m, where 5th started about 6 weeks ago. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

424 5th is just a tad smaller than 7th at 4br/3ba, 1925 sq. ft. Bedrooms are downstairs while living spaces are up. Very cute, but you need to be OK with this setup. Now at $2.099m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

232 5th Pl is not a new listing, but it's fairly near the two referenced above. It's a pleasant, newer, shingled beach home on a corner with Highland. Offers 3br/3ba and almost 2050 sq. ft. on a half lot (1350 sq. ft.). It's on the market this year – 90 DOM at this point – only about a year after it was last purchased (March 2007). The owner paid $1.750m and now insists on $1.825m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

612 13th is a large (5br/5ba, 4400 sq. ft.) corner-lot ocean-view home near downtown that gets Mrs. MBC's nod this week. She thinks the home is delightful, open and bright, but it's really the location on this one that's drawing her in.

Until 612 13th became the third home on this short block of Fisher Ave. to hit the market, she was thinking you needed $5m to $6m to get onto this street. (The other 2 are newly completed mega-moderns that we dubbed The Fisher King & Queen in a story in early September.)

612 13th comes in well below those two, at $2.999m. That's also under $700/PSF, not at all typical of the Sand Section and Hill Section homes that you might compare this one to, but definitely in the PPSF ballpark for Tree Section homes selling above the $2m mark recently.

Market movement note: This home was built in 2001 and sold for $1.775m, which seemed like a lot at the time, before the bubble inflated. The markup now: 69% over the 2001 price. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

3109 Oak is a completely different kind of new home in the Trees. A clean, modern feel with a Hawaiian vacation sort of vibe. Starts at $2.329m. Open Sun. 12-4pm.

2000 Prices in 2010?

It's just one man's opinion, but Leo Nordine's may be weightier than others'.

Nordine is an agent who lives in Hermosa Beach and has specialized in foreclosures since the 1990s. Actually, the LA Times labels him the "Foreclosure King" in a profile today.

The story concludes with Nordine's advice (as written by the reporter):

Don't sell unless you absolutely have to. Don't buy until 2010, when prices should be at 2000 levels. And apply every spare nickel to paying off your debt, including mortgages.

More than a year ago, MBC also linked over to some LA Times coverage of Nordine (see "Bearish Leo at LA Times Blog"). Back then he was pretty bearish, too, saying "the next two years are going to be brutal."

Maybe there's only another year left?

Awkwaaard!

We return to the flat South End walkstreets for a tale of two cottages.

New on the market is 429 7th, a 4br/3ba, 2125 sq. ft. remodel. (Pictured; as always, click highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.)

It can't help but be compared to 424 5th – 4br/3ba, 1925 sq. ft., also active at this time.

Both are cute little places in one of the quieter parts of town with those family-friendly walkstreets.

Both are around the same vintage – updated, of course.

Both have some great, beachy décor.

Both hit the market at the same start price: $2.399m.

And both have the same agent.

After that, the stories begin to diverge.

424 5th (pictured) has been around since Labor Day, about 6 weeks. In that time, it has already taken a big cut: -$300k/-13%, down to $2.099m.

One reason is probably the layout. After Mrs. MBC picked the home as a weekend must-see, several comments flowed back, including:

• It has a flip-flop layout with the bedrooms all on the entry level and the common rooms up on top. The master bedroom is the room that juts out onto the front (walk-street facing) patio.

• It's a cute house but it's LESS than 2000 sq. ft with NO VIEW and in the middle of the block... I think it'll linger for awhile till the price comes down substantially to today's price.

• They will never get that price [$2.399m].

• 5th is priced like it deserves several premiums on top of each other. [by your blog author]

We have to agree – if you're on a walkstreet, you probably want a home with living spaces that open onto the walkstreet, to take full advantage of the lifestyle. If your kitchen is upstairs and your master is on the first floor by the walkstreet, you're not living the ideal.

So 424 5th is beginning to adjust to deal with its overly ambitious start price and its liabilities, to say nothing of current market conditions.

Now, say you've got the new listing at 429 7th. Dare you compare it to 5th?

Yes, you do.

Even if you're also repping 5th?

Yes, you do.

The second line of the listing language for 7th sings:

The floor plan is great for family living with 4 bedrooms on the second level including a very spacious master suite with extensive woodwork.

In other words, this is no 424 5th. Awkward!

And there was the matter of pricing. Where to begin? Hey, we just started another remodeled cottage two blocks away at $2.399m. Why not do the same here?

As long as both homes are on the market, they will dance with one another. It's inevitable.

If 7th proves to be overpriced at $2.4m, its downward adjustments could trickle down to 5th, which will likely always be the less desirable of the 2.

How much these 2 listings may interact – putting aside the same-agent factor – depends on how they really stack up head-to-head.

Fortunately, both are open this Sunday. We'll highlight both of them again in MBC's "Weekend Opens" feature this weekend and encourage your feedback.

Name Your Price?

We must be entering another new phase in the local real estate market.

Next month, 5 new homes by the same builder will be sold at auction on the same day.

These are not foreclosure auctions or bank-owned properties, mind you. These are active listings (or recently active) that simply haven't been moving in the traditional way – listing on the MLS, re-listing, dropping prices, rejecting lowballs then begging for "all reasonable offers."

So now it's time to let buyers name their prices.

Of these 5 homes, 3 are in MB (only 1 west of Sepulveda) and 2 are in Hermosa. All of them were originally priced above $2 million, but all will start well below that on the day of the auction, Sunday, Nov. 23:

• 2509 Palm, MB, is well-known to MBC readers, if only because it has been listed for 550+ days, starting April 19, 2007. (It was also featured in "Palm Blues" in July when the construction loans went into default.)

This is a standard Tree Section newbie with 5br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft. located on a short, private cul-de-sac street sandwiched between Marine and Ardmore.

During the Spring Rally of 2007, when this one first hit the market, it began at $2.449m. Its twin, one block over at 2509 Walnut, hit the market at the same price in July 2007. Both adjusted down, but Walnut made a deal and closed July 25 for $2.025m.

Similar Tree Section newbies by the same builder recently have sold for somewhat less (2309 Pacific: $1.890m, 2611 Palm: $1.850m).

The lot at 2509 Palm was purchased for $1.12m in Dec. 2005. The home was last priced at $1.949m, but its auction start price is $1.499m.

Yes, that's almost $500k off the current price, and quite nearly $1m off the start last Spring.

• 1211 11th (5br/5ba, 3325 sq. ft.) hit the market in Aug. 2007 for $2.149m.
  

The price has stayed relatively high despite the lack of action over 400+ DOM. It was last at $1.995m.

Lot was purchased for $925k in June 2006. The auction start price for the completed home is $1.450m.

• 1405 Faymont (5br/5ba, 3550 sq. ft.) lists a construction date of 2007, but we don't have the listing's true start date. (Click here for more pics than are offered in the newly posted listing.)
  

We do see it was once priced at $2.095m, but was most recently at $1.699m.

Lot was purchased for $930k in March 2006. The auction start price is $1.399m.

• Two next-door newbies in Hermosa join this auction parade, 540 21st (pictured) and 544 21st. (Click addresses for details via Redfin, or here for more pics of 540 and here for more on 544.)
  

Both hit the market in Summer 2007 at $2.499m, and drifted down to $2.289m.

540 begins with an auction start price of $1.649m (-$850k/-34% off start), and 544 has an auction start price of $1.669m.

The discounts here are a minimum of $700k off the start prices, and run as high as $950k off.

Those new numbers are enticing, though, as with any auction, you can't be sure where the true "reserve price" is on any given home. The agent coordinating these auctions insists that the reserve prices on these are "very realistic."

And don't forget that you, as a buyer, pay the costs of this auction process.

You're used to paying 5-6% on a standard transaction, but that normally comes out of the sale price. It's almost invisible.

In an auction, you pay a premium on top of the agreed-upon sale price. On 540 21st, for instance, the "buyer's premium" is listed as 7.5%. If you grabbed that one for the auction start price of $1.649m, the "buyer's premium" would be a not-insubstantial $124k.

Finally, if you win the bidding, you darn well better close. You could lose up to 10% of the agreed-upon price as a penalty for not closing.

As you get down into the details, these auctions are not simple transactions. They're potential bargains for highly qualified buyers.

After all, the seller is not having an easy time here, with limited profits or actual losses on these speckies gone bad, so the buyers aren't going to be given a free ride, either.

If you can put it all together, though, maybe you can name your price.

MB Market Update for 10/15/08

The new MB Market Update spreadsheets for 10/15/08 are available for download by clicking here, or at any time by using the link in the upper-right corner of the MBC front page. Information in this update closed Oct. 15.

Inventory of SFRs west of Sepulveda has now hit a new high, at least for the 18-months-plus that MBC has provided public market tracking. The new record total: 124, up 8 from the end of September.

During this period we counted 15 new listings and 2 comebackers (failed escrows) adding to inventory, while 2 sales (new escrows) and 6 cancellations reduced inventory. (One more came off our spreadsheets that did not belong on the last report.)

Inventory broke down as follows:

• Hill Section: 27, far above the 10 active SFRs at this time last year;

• Sand Section: 47, compared with 20 at this time last year, a rather noteworthy jump. Of those, 27 of the active listings are priced above $2m, many west-of-Highland walkstreet homes contributing to a new kind of glut in MB (see "A Flood West of Highland"); and

• Tree Section: 50, just 1 higher than last year – hey, Tree Section, at least something is stable around here!

Were times tough in early October? Yes, as those 2 sales and 2 failed escrows attest. But we also saw some evidence from price chops (as always, click any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin):

• A new home at 645 12th (pictured) whacked $500k/-11% off its start price within 2 weeks to $3.999m;

• A newer listing at 2600 Poinsettia made a quick $100k adjustment to $1.799m, also within 2 weeks of its start;

• A fairly quick adjustment came to the cute walkstreet cottage at 424 5th, down $300k/-13% to $2.099m, just $49k more than the recent fire-sale price at 408 6th;

• A recent comebacker, the longtime listing at 1829 Poinsettia, chopped $70k to $1.319m, now $466k off its stratospheric start price in May 2007;

• 221 34th, a stunning new modern near the water with huge views, cut $699k at once and is now down $1.1m (-20%) from start, currently $4.3m.

The 3 sales we saw close during this period saw cuts of 10% to 26% from start prices:

• 400 3rd, a delightful South End shingled Cape Cod, went for $2.979m, off $520k (-15%) from its start with the first agent back in March;

• 900 Pacific, which actually closed in mid-August but just hit the radar, closed for about $1m less than its record-setting $10.9m asking price, at $9.85m. A mil is a lot, but it was just a 10% discount in this case. We doubt that either party to the transaction found this upsetting (see "A New Hill Record"); and

• Much-discussed 2611 Palm (pictured), one of the last of the true cookie-cutter newbies in the Trees, sold for $1.850m, fully $645k (-26%) below its Jan. 2007 start price.
  

Here's a kick – that closed price was $40k less than the home's literal twin, 2309 Pacific, which featured a less desirable location, but which sold first, back in April.

(See "Newbies Slipping in the Trees," our story from way back then.)

Let's round this story out with some good news. First, our sales (new escrows), both of which we wrote up the other day in "A Little Action" –

532 6th St., a newer modern home with 4br/4ba and 2700 sq. ft. purchased in March 2005 for $1.818m. It was down to $1.949m when a deal was made. For those of you scoring at home, the last list was +$131k/+7% over the Spring 2005 price, surprisingly flat, but not negative.

2112 Ardmore, a small (3br/1ba, 1125 sq. ft.), slightly frumpy cottage that began in mid-July at $1.099m and was at $1.059m when a deal was made. The sale looks to be a net loss – it was purchased for $1.1m in June 2007.

Among new listings:

2 new shorties: 201 43rd is a newer modern (3br/4ba, 1800 sq. ft.) priced at $1.425m, +$235k over the Oct. 2003 acquisition price, but it's a short sale.

There's also 3109 Laurel (pictured), a little cottage picked up for $1.375m in April 2006, but now up at $1.199m, short.

A year and out: 570 36th is priced below its May 2007 acquisition price – then: $1.306m, now: $1.255m, plus "Bring all offers!" in the listing.

Gems: This being MB, there are always some truly great new properties.

Start with 220 35th, a unique modern that was a bit of a sensation this period, priced at $5m. Or consider 801 Highview, a big, tucked-away Hillie with huge, unobstructable ocean views starting at $7.495m. Finally, 202 Ocean is a year-old home near the Strand that starts at $7.5m.

Open Forum (10/20-10/26)

Most MBC readers are taking the long view as they watch the value of their non-RE investments drop amid the financial markets' turmoil.

That's according to our poll last week, which deigned to attach numbers to a phenomenon most people are discussing at some level. Every water cooler chat or dinner party has someone who claims they got out of the markets in plenty of time, and others who say, simply, what will be will be.

By the "long view," in this case, we note that 48% of poll respondents said they are just "riding it out." They're disappointed, perhaps, but not in any rush to use the money they have invested in college funds, retirement or other sorts of investments. There's time for the market to come back before they need the money.

Another 6% are taking the long view, but not really by choice. They're "feeling stuck," maybe wishing they had cashed out of investments when the downturn started to get scary in August and September. Maybe they need some of that money in the shorter term, but can't move it now, not without taking heavy losses.

So how many market sages, market timers, cautious investors, cold realists and/or lucky people read MBC? By this poll, it's almost a third – 31% say they "saw it coming," meaning they mostly converted investments to cash or other less volatile instruments well before the recent downturn began. Buy low, sell high – where have we heard that?

Another 15% might count themselves nearly as lucky if this downturn persists. They said they "got out early," after the writing was on the wall but before the biggest drops. Sometimes you book your losses and live to fight another day.

We honestly don't know how these stats compare with other regions or social stata, but we're thinking that the proportion of folks who claim foreknowledge of the calamity that's now hitting it pretty high. Testament, perhaps, to MB's white-collar workforce having so many ties to finance, law and such.

If you see any comparable surveys of other populations, please share here on the "Open Forum" thread.

As always, please use the "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. (If you feel you must, this forum can include politics, but if you can hold back a week, that'll be next week's Open Forum kickoff.) Keep it clean.

See the Sand This Weekend (10/18-10/19)

If you follow MBC's "Weekend Opens" feature closely, you know that we had some rough patches this Summer, when the Sand Section just wasn't producing much new material.

It seemed incongruous. Summer = Beach, right? It seemed people were busy living in their houses, not offering them up.

This weekend, there are lots and lots of open houses all over MB, but it seems that all the new offerings are in the Sand Section. So we're changing the feature this weekend and focusing only on the area that's got new stuff to see. It's 100% Sand Section this week – enjoy.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like, what you don't like, what you'd change if you owned a particular home, and so on. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

As always, click any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.


Sand Section

133 17th (4br/4ba, 2925 sq. ft.) is a charmer on a walkstreet west of Highland and near downtown – all nice.

The home has a bit more of a traditional feel, Cape Cod style, with a kitchen that's worth the price of admission.

Featured the other day in "A Flood West of Highland." Starts at $3.650m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

304 16th Pl. is a new modern with ocean views. It's just east of Highland. Offers 3br/3ba, 2100 sq. ft. on a 1500 sq. ft. lot.

The listing boasts that the newbie "defines innovation and sustainable living with its open, modern living environment and green finishes." Starts at $2.099m. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

539 23rd is a bit of a wildcard, but Mrs. MBC is finding it intriguing. She hasn't seen it yet but likes the location plenty. This is a very quiet, almost untraveled pocket of the Sand Section's gaslamp district, and you almost have to love the hideaway streets like this. Street-to-alley lots mean no garage-faced homes.

(Side note: These charming natural-gas street lights run all day, every day. The city's recent study concluded it would be too expensive to replace them with solar or electric lighting. So the charm remains, for now. Please don't tell Al Gore.)

What you get here is a 4br/2ba, 1900 sq. ft. home on a not-so-big 3600 sq. ft. lot. You can readily see the profile: 1950s cottage with addition. The listing offers no more pics, adding to the mystery till the first open. Starts at $1.475m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

While you're at 539 23rd, you may well see signs for neighboring 510 23rd (pictured). This is a new Spanish near Grandview school, offering 4br/4ba and 3200 sq. ft., including a 2-room basement. Started just before Labor Day at $2.399m, where it remains today. Open Sat. 2-4pm., Sun. 1-4pm.

Comebacker of the week: 3404 Alma has been featured by MBC before, even picked by the Mrs. some time back. After a couple months in escrow, it's back on the market, $70k lighter than the last list price. Now at $1.129m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Last week's mini-sensation, 220 35th, is open again this weekend, now at $5.0m – we reported the price as $5.5m last week before the final price had been settled on. The listing pics are top-notch architectural shots. In person or online, check it out. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

A New Hill Record

It took a while, but we've just gotten word that 900 Pacific has closed for $9.85m.

The home is huge (6br/7ba, 10,500 sq. ft. of living space) and just about a year old. It sports one of the best hilltop, ocean-view locations in the Hills.

The sale actually closed in mid-August but previous scans have shown no information on the sale.

This appears to be a new record for the Hill Section, eclipsing a sale at 863 6th (5400 sq. ft., 11,000+ sq. ft. lot), which sold off the MLS in August 2007 for $8.325m. Note that the 6th St. home is considerably smaller.

The price on 900 Pacific is impressive, but it's also $1m off the start price of $10.9m. The home sold very quickly – we recorded 9 DOM before it was posted in "backup offer" status – but the buyers still lopped a mil off. Everybody wins.

A Flood West of Highland

Sometimes it seems there ought to be 2 Sand Sections – the parts west of Highland and those that, sadly, aren't west of Highland. (We kid.)

The market isn't formally broken up that way, but that's a small matter. Everyone knows that the west-of-Highland walkstreets, in particular, are prize locations. They're hilly, with ocean views for most of the homes from Highland down to the Strand.

If you love the area, suddenly there's a lot to choose from. The walkstreet inventory west of Highland at this writing includes 15 SFRs. This is an extraordinary selection.

A year ago, there was just one single home in this category on the market – 224 31st, which recently canceled after 400+ DOM and went to "pocket listing" status.

Six months ago, in April, there were 4 – including 125 31st, which has sold, plus the above-mentioned 224 31st, and 2 more homes that are still listed today.

So, is west of Highland desirable? Yes.

Is it selling? Not really.

These are some of the priciest properties in MB. Here are the current listings, in order or price, from lowest to highest. It's a gallery of some pretty great homes. (Note: Every listing is on a full 2700 sq. ft. lot, except 1 specifically mentioned.) As always, click on any highlighted address to see more pics & details via Redfin:

• 232 20th (5br/5ba, 4550 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a newer (2001) home with updates that abuts Highland Ave. Records show a purchase for $3.1m in July 2005. This one actually started Oct. 6 below the acquisition price, at $2.998m, but jumped to $3.490m all of 3 days later. A miscommunication between seller and agent? Not likely – it's the agent's home.

• 129 8th (4br/4ba, 2950 sq. ft.) is a modern remodel (actually, the listing boats a "million dollar remodel" in 2005) that's quite sharp. It's cool enough to have drawn an immediate offer when it hit the market in September, but that didn't stick. Offered at $3.499m, almost exactly a million over its March 2004 acquisition price. (Did we mention the million-dollar remodel?)

• 128 6th (2br/1ba, 900 sq. ft.) must be called what it is – a teardown – no matter how charming the little vintage cottage (ca. 1909). People don't pay $3.5m for a 900 sq. ft. home. We love the photo of the "outhouse" bathroom. Recent nearby lot sales generally support this price.

• 133 17th (4br/4ba, 2925 sq. ft.) (pictured) is new to the market – a more traditional Cape Cod type home with a kitchen reminiscent of Diane Keaton's in "Something's Gotta Give." (A high compliment.) Starts at $3.650m.

• 228 34th (3br/4ba, 3450 sq. ft.) is a newer home pitched as a "Celebrity Beach Home!" The celeb is Kansas City Chiefs Tight End Tony Gonzalez. Features a supercool roof deck. Priced at $3.999m.

• 232 16th, aka 234 16th, is a 5br/5ba, 5000 sq. ft. remodel touted as an "MB landmark" and the developer's own home (built 1982) with custom details.
  

Offered last year, too, at $4.5m, before it rented out. Now at $4.295m.

• 221 34th (5br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a new, ultra-contemporary showpiece, stunning, cool, clean, and featuring world-class ocean, PV & pier views. It's in the midst of some price adjustments, having begun at $5.4m in mid-April, now down $1.1m to $4.3m.

• 224 32nd (4br/5ba, 4400 sq. ft.) is essentially new, a big-time remodel. You get the big views and a new home, but this is our least favorite on the whole list. Start with a cold, uninspiring design and add cheap materials in many places, and the effect is underwhelming – especially for $4.790m. The lot was purchased for almost $3.1m in March 2006, so don't expect steep discounts.

• 220 19th (5br/4ba, 4325 sq. ft.) is a very charming newer home that has adjusted a bit since starting at $5.2m in early July. Now at $4.850m (-$350k/-7% from start).

• 215 19th is a big (4br/4ba, 4250 sq. ft.) and newer home with delightful kitchen and warm family spaces. Ocean views are automatic on this block, of course. Priced at $5.0m.

• 220 35th (4br/5ba, 4200 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a unique, new modern that is simply spectacular. It drew Mrs. MBC's pick this past weekend, and lots of comments, too. Now priced a bit below initial reports at $5.0m.

• 204 19th is a walkstreet home near downtown, built in 2006 and pretty much maxed out (4br/4ba, 4260 sq. ft.). Purchased new in Aug. 2006 by Dodgers starting pitcher Derek Lowe (noted by Realestalker in this story) for $5.0m. Now offered for $5.7m.

• 2719 Manhattan Ave (4br/5ba, 3450 sq. ft.) is a newer (2002) "modern masterpiece" (listing). We agree. Now, about that $5.999m asking price...

• 3421 Manhattan Ave (4br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) is said to be Errol Flynn's former home – radically remodeled. (See "Art Deco on Manhattan Ave.") Still at $6.5m after about 200 DOM.

• 
• 202 Ocean (5br/6ba, 4150 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a 1-year-old home that just dazzles. You almost cannot get closer to the Strand. Well-designed and decorated. Unfortunately, new construction to the north and south will soon limit the ocean views. Starts at $7.499m.

Were You Ready?

Times are tough. They're saying $2 trillion in personal wealth was wiped out in recent days. (We're still wondering where it went, exactly.)

The proximate cause of this financial damage is the collapse of the credit bubble tied to the housing bubble. The bigger problem recently has been the utter loss of confidence and, eventually, regular folks getting the hell out of the market. Some of this is reversible.

Experts have been warning for years that some kind of financial Armageddon was around the corner – the check to be paid for the unsustainable Boom Times.

So, were you ready for this?

We're asking readers to vote in our new poll. It's open through Thursday night, 8pm.

We're asking if you took steps in recent days, weeks or months to protect any of your investments – or not. As a result of moves made or not made, how do you feel about your position today?

Did you see this mess coming, and move investments into cash and cash equivalents quite a while ago? Did you adjust your investment strategies substantially – if not radically – after seeing 25% YOY gains in recent years that just didn't seem sustainable? If so, maybe you feel you "saw it coming" and made your moves very early.

Did you see this mess developing in recent weeks or months, and move things around then, before madness took hold? Looking at the last few weeks, a big dump of halfway-risky assets this past Spring or Summer may have been a smart surrender, depending on when you did it. Maybe you feel you "got out early."

Maybe you didn't believe we were going off the cliff, and held tight. Or maybe you just weren't in a mood or a position to change things at all. And now, you're thinking: If only I'd sold in September... In either case, you're feeling "stuck."

Or maybe you have no interest in the short term. Markets go up and down, you've got funds invested that neither you nor your kids will be tapping any time soon. You can see the buying opportunities now more clearly than folks who need their investment funds soon, and might even be buying now. No real concern about the current, short-term values of any investments. If so, you're "riding it out."

We're looking here for your state of mind. Sure, you may have a different sense about different investments you're holding. But given the breathtaking drops of the past weeks, and Monday's partial restoration of values, the big question is: Were you ready for this upheaval, mostly, kinda, or not at all?

Please vote in the poll and tell your stories in the comments.

A Little Action

If you assume local RE sales have ground to a halt recently, you're mostly right. Two exceptions:

532 6th St. – first featured by MBC in Nov. 2007 when it briefly hit the market at $2.7m (see "6th Street Is Turning Over"), this newer modern home with 4br/4ba and 2700 sq. ft. was purchased in March 2005 for $1.818m.

Those lofty ambitions for a 49% markup were retired soon, and after 4 months on the market this year it was down to $1.949m when a deal was made. For those of you scoring at home, the last list was +$131k/+7% over the Spring 2005 price, surprisingly flat, but not negative.

2112 Ardmore (click for details via Redfin) – a small (3br/1ba, 1125 sq. ft.), slightly frumpy cottage on an isolated stretch of Ardmore, began in mid-July at $1.099m and was at $1.059m when a deal was made. You can still see the house while it's in "Backup Offer" status as it is at this writing.

This sale looks to be a net loss. The home was purchased for $1.1m in June 2007.

In addition to the two posted new escrows above, we hear (but haven't confirmed) that a west-of-Manhattan-Ave. walkstreet home at 121 25th (mentioned in last weekend's "Weekend Opens" feature) sold in the past week before even hitting the MLS, priced at $3.250m. To judge by the switfness here, the 13 other current listings west of Highland weren't up to par.

We might expect to see more delayed and failed escrows with the credit crisis as it stands.

One came at 3404 Alma (click for details), which has hit the market again after almost 2 months in escrow limbo. This one – a Mrs. MBC pick in June – took a price chop, too, by $70k down to $1.129m, upon returning.

The bigger story in recent days is a familiar one – several more withdrawals and cancellations by sellers who don't like the look of the market these days and are content to wait for a better time to sell. Who can blame them?

Weekend Opens (10/11-10/12)

It might seem a gloomy time for real estate, but we have a couple of new opens this weekend that could help turn that frown upside-down.

We'll even spoil the surprise – if you see just one home, see 220 35th, Sunday 1-4pm. Schedule around it.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like, what you don't like, what you'd change if you owned a particular home, and so on. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

As always, click any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.


Hill Section

1011 Pacific is huge, with 6br/5ba and 6875 sq. ft. of living space on an 8000 sq. ft. lot. Ocean views out the back.

The listing has been around a month but this is the first open.

Priced at $5.995m. Open Sun. 2-4pm

1042 2nd, which we've mentioned before, is a large, newer (2003) home with views of the city, and a location next to a commercial building and Sepulveda. Offers 5br/4ba and 4400+ sq. ft, listed at $2.395m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Sand Section

Do not miss 220 35th, which debuts this weekend. It's not on the MLS yet, so you'll have to settle for live and in-person. (You can grab a flyer there or from the listing agent's website here.)

What you've got here is a unique, new modern that is simply spectacular, by early accounts. The details – 4br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft. on an uptown walkstreet west of Highland. Starts at $5.5m.

Mrs. MBC hasn't even seen it yet, but she's going on pics and buzz to make it her pick for the week. (Yes, we're aware that her picks are actually getting more expensive, even as just about everyone's net worth is dropping. Well, she likes what she likes.)

220 35th is open Sun. 1-4pm.

221 34th is a new home just the next street over, so it's an easy matter to shuffle over and check it out. Nice for comparison shopping.

Indeed, if you've previously checked out 221 34th, out the back deck off the top-floor kitchen, you've seen the nearly-completed 220 35th with a big banner advertising the builder of that home. They certainly get points for cleverness – hoisting a banner for the express purpose of reaching potential buyers of a neighboring home.

The big news this week was that 221 34th took a sudden, huge chop of $699k, now dropping a total of $1.1m over 5+ months to $4.3m. This provides a cautionary tale for 220 35th, which is starting up about where 221 34th started. Hmmmm. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Back in the realm of the somewhat more broadly affordable, 609 N. Valley is a very recent, modern remodel offering 3br/3ba, 1675 sq. ft. Starts this week at $1.449m. Open Saturday only from 1-4pm.


Tree Section

We see nothing this week in the Trees that we haven't featured before – though there are plenty of offerings. Worth your attention:

1400 Elm is a late-90s home with 5br/4ba and 3100 sq. ft. You'll find the overall design familiar, but the interior details are very well done.

This one was purchased for $1.7m in May 2005, and tried to sell last year for $2.35m. Ambitions have been reduced. It's at $1.949m currently. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

1801 John is quite large (5br/4ba, 4000 sq. ft.) and very nicely located. (John!) It's priced near the pinnacle of comparable listings in the Trees at $2.850m. Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.