Just Hitting the Radar

Here at MBC, we do the sometimes-arduous legwork of independent market tracking because there's often some value to getting beyond the confines of the MLS database. (Though we rely on that, too.)

The tracking process leads to many of the stories here – a price cut here, or a sale there, can make for interesting material.

Other times, tracking is almost as exciting as balancing one's checkbook.

Recently we sought to clear some local RE transactions for which we had not seen sale data from the MLS, and we found a few tidbits.

Below is a selection of listings that we saw live on the MLS this year, which then went into escrow but, for whatever reason, we never saw post as closed sales – or only long after they had closed. We got the closed sale info for most of these from public records searches.


Sand Section

• We're late in saying so, but The Turkey is sold. (How appropriate for the season.)

They got $825k in July for 462 36th Place, a dreadful 3br/2ba, 1150 sq. ft. home on a lot that's almost a standard half lot (1260 sq. ft. in this case).

MBC pulled no punches in reviewing this one. (See "A Real Turkey" from November 2007.) Visiting this house was simply too traumatic. In short, everything was wrong – location, the lot split that created a home fronting an alley, a bad addition in the 80s and a cheap remodel in 2007.

Plenty of folks predicted a big loss for the flippers here, but they may have dodged a bullet.

The home was acquired for $760k in Aug. 2007, spiffed up and offered anew for $929k last year. As it fell, the home went for $65k more than its purchase price.

Take out remodeling costs, 9 months of carrying costs plus costs of sale, and most – perhaps all – of that margin is eaten up. It still looks like a failed flip, but it coulda been worse. We're frankly amazed that they made a deal.

The out-of-area agent who sold the property only recently posted the sale price from late July on the local MLS, which explains the delay in getting this info up. (Some MLS searches will show this as a November closing.)

• Shortly after 36th Pl. closed (unbeknownst to many) in July, 3204 Vista was offered up as the cheapest half-lot in the Sand for some time at $799k. (It began Aug. 15.)

Vista was in a better location, relatively – on the 32nd Place alley, amid some of the nicer streets up on the plateau. That price was an immediate draw for the 2br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft. offering, and within 3 days it was gone.

In late September, this one closed higher than the Turkey at $835k, despite the lower start.

We didn't catch that on the MLS, but were wondering what happened to the property. We did find the sale via the County Assessor's website. Meanwhile, PropertyShark.com showed a sale, but no price or public documents.

Might someone not want the price disclosed? Perhaps the new owner: "Very Generic LLC." (We kid not.)

• 1501 Crest is a 3br/3ba, 2100 sq. ft. home with ocean views that is perhaps too close to downtown – it's right across from City Hall, just one door away from a busy intersection at Highland and 15th.

That doesn't make it bad. The home has found buyers twice in 2 years at inflated prices. In July 2006, it was $1.360m. This year, Crest was offered for $1.549m in May and sold pretty quickly. The price closed at $1.470m in late July, about midway between the 2006 price and the 2008 markup.

That's still an impressive +$100k/+7%, taken quickly in a difficult market. Why not crow about it?

• We're still watching: 417 28th. This is a luxurious, newer, ocean-view home purchased by an agent in Sept. 2005 for $2.550m. He tried a near-million-dollar markup at $3.495m in April, then gradually cut it down to $2.899m. A deal was struck in mid-August, but we haven't seen a sale close – it's now more than 100 days later.

Tree Section

• A lot of people would like to know how low lot prices are going in the Tree Section. So it's good to see a closed price on 1400 Oak, which made rapid and substantial adjustments this Spring.

1400 Oak opened at $975k in mid-May, a grudging step down from the cherished $1m threshold. But this is not prime dirt. The dated, 3br/2ba, 1400 sq. ft. home is on the "wrong" side of Oak, backing up on a business and abutting two "cut-through" streets. (Oak is an alternative to Sepulveda and 14th is a bailout street for folks who don't like the light at MBB.)

Turns out, 1400 Oak made a quick 20% adjustment and went for $780k in late July.

This sale has obvious implications for 2500 Oak, a smaller home also on the "wrong" side of Oak and in a more challenging location at Marine/Sepulveda. (See our story on the home.) It's currently up at $824,900.

We're also looking at 1733 Elm, which doesn't have the same location problems, but which is clearly a teardown. (The current owners got that job partway done, hence the green construction fence.) It's a short sale at $850k.

• 1813 Pine was one of those swanky new homes (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.) that grabs top dollar and confuses the market for run-of-the-mill newbies. This one pre-sold off the MLS this Summer at a posted start price of $2.799m. Actual closed price: $2.7m in mid-August. Now, why isn't everyone getting that for new construction around town?

• We're still watching: 1410 Ardmore. This is an average, but remodeled, little cottage (3br/2ba, 1600 sq. ft.) on a busy part of Ardmore, near the intersection at 15th. It was listed for $1.5m in July, and seemed to make a deal within a week.

The story behind 1410 Ardmore is not average. MBC offered a glimpse in "A Shorty with a Story," then the lawyers warned us off further coverage of a story that's pretty hot. (Synopsis: the home sold for $1.2m in March 2006, then $2.5m a year later, and suddenly wound up short just one more year later at $1.5m.)

So, did they make a deal at $1.5m? More? Less? We're watching that and the backstory.

A Couple Sunday Opens (11/30)

Your blog author has been enjoying a few days mostly away from MBC, taking time to recharge while the RE world is especially slow. We do have a full week of material ahead.

This weekend, we see only one new listing that's open, so we'll feature that and make quick mention of 2 others.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

1728 Poinsettia is a mid-80s build that's been tastefully updated over the 20 years the owners have had it. On balance, this is pretty much the whole package that many families looking in the Tree Section are seeking.

It's plenty spacious, with 4br/3ba, 3500 sq. ft. Of course, you don't get a yard, per se, on maxed-out homes like this on 4400 sq. ft. lots. But you do get a fully decked-out brick patio with built-in barbeque and outdoor fireplace, far superior to a postage stamp's worth of grass. It's a classy touch.

Really, our only gripe is the river rock accents – yesterday's stapled-on stone. (It recurs in the fireplace inside.) Sometimes you have to compromise.

The start price of $1.699m seems reasonable. For instance, with a PPSF of $488, we'd repeat our observations in a recent story on 2909 Elm, to the effect that PPSFs near $500 seem to (now) be at the lower end among comparably sized Tree Section listings and recent sales, and therefore a bit aggressive.

As to location, this is a pretty sweet block near Pacific School and the soccer fields, nice bonuses for a family. This is another factor giving it a leg up on 2909 Elm, which is also at $1.699m. 1728 Poinsettia is open Sun. 1-4pm.

The aforementioned 2909 Elm is also Open Sun., 1-4pm.

757 30th (5br/4ba, 3350 sq. ft.) hit the market exactly one year ago (11/29/07), a new and different home on a different sort of lot. The 4800 sq. ft. lot is oriented wide along quiet 30th St., but shallow, rather than running deep back along a narrow lot, as is typical in the Trees.

When it began last Thanksgiving, the listing was at $2.699m. As MBC gingerly put it then, this price was "at the top of the ladder now among similarly sized new homes."

Turns out, this wasn't one of those ultra-classy $2.7m newbies you see now and then, it was an imperfect home with location issues.

Slip, slide, slip, and now it's under $2m – having recently dropped to $1.999m, or fully -$700k/-26% off that start. And that's the pre-Christmas price.

There's plenty to like, particularly if they're dealing now. (Builder paid $1.3m for the lot, so the new price probably cuts near to bone.) Open Sun. 2-4pm.

Spectacular, But Shifting Fast

We've had only good things to say about 220 35th, and the feedback has been much the same.

Here's a beaut with big ocean views on a walkstreet west of Highland. Modern and yet warm, maxed-out size-wise (4br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) but cozy. It's truly unique, as befits a custom build by a custom builder who intended to live in the home himself.

Finding the right price for this baby has not been easy, but they're trying, and they're not playing a waiting game, either.

When first the home was offered for viewing not so long ago in early October, no price was printed on the flyers. We got word that it would be $5.5m, and considered that reliable enough to print (virtually) at that time.

Turns out, the true start price was $5.0m. After two steps down, it's now at $4.395m. (That's -$605k/-12% off the true start, -$1.1m/-20% off the tentative start price.)

This is same the path followed – over a longer period of time – by a neighboring, also-fairly-spectacular newbie at 221 34th, which began at $5.4m and is now even further down than it was at our last report.

221 34th is at $3.799m today, after 220+ DOM, down $1.6m/-30% from its start.

Location is probably working against both homes to an extent, but it's hard to tell with the general slowdown. Despite ample supply, we haven't seen much movement on the beach-adjacent walkstreets. We're only sure of 3 sales this year, one still pending. (See "A Flood West of Highland." Many now-inactive listings in that story have canceled.)

Much closer to downtown, 19th St. has seen 2 of those sales this year.

Back in March, 200 19th (pictured) made a splash, quickly grabbing $5.6m for a new home (5br/4ba, 4200).

That classy home seems to have set the high-water mark for the year among the fabled west-of-Highland walkstreets.

Within the last couple of weeks, 220 19th (newer, 5br/4ba, 4325 sq. ft.) went into escrow, last priced at $4.850m.

The only other sale we're sure about in this coveted area of the Sand was at 121 25th (4br/4ba, 3000 sq. ft.), a $3.0m resale that happened quickly – before the listing hit the MLS. (That one, not incidentally, went below its April 2007 acquisition price of $3.25m.)

So it's surprisingly tough by the beach. Not everyone is content to wait for the weather to warm up again.

Open Forum (11/25-12/1)

And now we tiptoe back into a world of limited-to-no comment moderation – your blog host's preference, as well as most everyone else's, it appears.

Tying back to the auction story, be prepared to be astonished.

2509 Palm, which drew no bids at $1.499m on Sunday, has returned to market at $1.899m.

Discuss.

Also, a topic struck us last week as worthy of a few comments, if not a whole story:

The annual downtown Holiday Open House seems to be a bit more perilous than it needs to be. Sidewalks are crowded, but all the streets are open.

Wouldn't the event be improved with Manhattan Ave. closed for a couple of blocks around MBB, and MBB closed from the pier up to Valley, with Highland open? Seems like a no-brainer, but they haven't done it yet.

It says here they'll be running the same sort of Holiday Open thing in El Norte (El Porto/North MB) next Weds., Dec. 3. Odds that they'll close Highland and Rosecrans: awfully long.

As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. Keep it clean.

Auctions a Qualified Failure

After several weeks of hype and garish "auction" signs all over town, Sunday, it was time for 5 new homes to go to auction. (See "Name Your Price?" for our first story on this last month.)

The first 2 up for consideration in the morning were in Hermosa, 540 and 544 21st, in the pleasant Hermosa Valley area.

The auctioneer began the bidding on 540 21st, and got an immediate bid at the auction minimum price ($1.649m), down from its $2.995m start in early 2007.

That was the last public bid.

All day.

No one bid against the first person for 540 21st. That start price was surely below an unknown "reserve price" in the mind of the builder/seller. They'll have to work it out.

Then 544 21st drew no bids at $1.669m (it also began at $2.995m, according to the flyers).

In front of 100 people (plus kids & dogs) and a few paddles held by registered bidders, the auctioneer tried to entice a bid by lowering the price to $1.5m. No takers. One bidder signaled that he might bid at $1.4m, but the price never moved that low. Then it was over.

And so it went the rest of the day.

The next auction, at 2509 Palm – a new home reportedly crawling with realtors, neighbors and assorted snoopers – was postponed at auction time. Though the house was full of people, no paddles were present. Three hours later, the rescheduled auction was never opened to public bidding.

We won't know for a while how far this one might fall from its literal twin at 2509 Walnut, which sold at $2.025m in late July. The auction start price on Palm was to be $1.499m, definitely on track to be a new low for new construction.

Public auctions never got under way, either, at 1211 11th ($1.450m) or 1405 Faymont ($1.399m).

Now, if 4 out of 5 homes up for auction did not draw a bid, and the only bid publicly made was below the reserve price, the operation sure looks like a complete failure. But it depends on what you're looking for in these results.

From the auction company's perspective, this looks like pretty bad news. The auctioneers were to draw a 7.5% "buyer's premium" on top of the selling price for each home. The combined premiums on the minimum prices on the 4 homes that did not draw public bids would have been more than $450k. (The individual homes are represented by other agents, so a deal outside the auction context could spark a tiff.)

But the bigger question is: Did the auction process, with all the attendant marketing and hype, draw new buyer interest in homes that had gone moribund on the market months and months ago?

On that score, we're told the answer is yes.

Indeed, the answer to a question posed recently by Blake Roberts: "Real Estate Auctions in Manhattan Beach – Deal or Marketing Angle?" would appear to be: "marketing angle."

Despite the lack of public bids, there's talk that "most" of the 4 no-bid properties now have serious interest, and deals could be made within days. That would validate the auction strategy, despite the depressing silence at the public events Sunday.

We'll see what happens. You can bet that some privately arranged deals will fall below the auction start prices, and some will probably become short sales.

A little-noted casualty could be the builder/seller's taxes. His timing – auction Nov. 23, mandatory close within 30 days – suggested an effort to take any losses in 2008 to balance against any profits for the year. Non-auction deals may close in 2009, providing no benefit this year.

In sum, why did the public auctions fail? Pick your issue: Location, price and timing stand out.

The MB homes were in off locations.

Prices were low compared to the high start prices, but not rock-bottom low enough to look like steals – the supposed point of an auction.

And timing looked pretty awful, too – the financial markets keep getting worse, and buyers are understandably skittish about their own money and jobs, not to mention feeling less than certain that they could close these deals, as required, within 30 days.

Blake Roberts called the auctions "a tremendous, below the belt blow to our local market," expressing a fear that auction sold prices would be artificially below market, due to the 7.5% "buyer's premium." Successful auctions could serve as comps driving prices down faster.

Turns out that's not the problem.

But this builder's rapid unloading of properties could well refute his own claim, made in those "crystal ball" ads he placed in January, that prices "will not and cannot come down another 10% this year." On this inventory, they could, and did – and it still wasn't enough.

Weekend Opens (11/22-11/23)

We always appreciate a week with new options, and here we go.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

606 Ardmore is a one-of-a-kind modern on the periphery of the Hill Section.

If you've ever passed it, you know it. It's bold, angular, made of concrete, glass and steel. Seems to be holding up well style-wise – a 1993 build that remains fresh and forward-looking.

Despite the ambition and style of this home, it seems a fairly small project out of the complete works of the architect. (Click to go off-site for the firm's web page.)

The home offers 3br/4ba and 3300 sq. ft., and starts at $3.3m. The home may not be for everyone, but it's a nice stop to plan on for a day of touring. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

856 11th is on the smaller side at 4br/3ba, 2225 sq. ft., and it hasn't got the big Hill Section views, but compare it to a Tree Section home – the 6,000-sq.-ft. lot affords a real back yard.

The home is nicely updated, though we have some issues with the floorplan. Starts at $1.479m Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.



Sand Section

It turns out that 465 30th is back. This large (5br/5ba, 3350 sq. ft.) home near the end of a quiet plateau street made a deal back in July. But that was a short sale that didn't work out, and now it's back – still short.

There's much to recommend the home – MBC once called it "voluptuous." There's more than enough indoor space plus a large, bonus deck/outdoor living room (3rd floor above the 2nd floor space in the pic here).

The sellers began much too high in March at $2.799m, changed agents and by Summer, the home was down to $2.399m.

Now it's at $2.2m, but you may have to be patient trying to close this deal – the endless, and failed, escrow, this last time ran almost 4 months. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

3604 Palm almost could not be closer to Rosecrans and the refinery, but it's a somewhat inspired Craftsmanesque newbie.

The home offers 5br/4ba, 3260 sq. ft. on a 4640 sq. ft. lot. We give it bonus points for some bold colors in the bedrooms – daring for a speckie. Overall, the home seems warm and a bit different.

This one starts at $2.189m, which raises a couple of additional points.

The lot was purchased for $1.1m in Aug. 2006. We'd bet the projected sale price was nearer to $2.4m. As it edges down (inevitably), there's some question of whether it will be profitable.

Of course, several better-located newbies are already below this one's start price. Most notably, way below are 2504 Poinsettia and 2829 Valley, both at $1.899m, and both open Sun. 2-4pm.

3604 Palm is Open Sat. 1-4pm, Sun. 12-3pm.

2909 Elm (5br/4ba, 3450 sq. ft.) was just featured on MBC the other day (see "Renting Could Cost You $300k"). It has come a long way since beginning at $2.8m in Dec. 2006, a joke price if there ever was one.

The new price, $1.699m, we called "not bad" the other day. Consider the space you get – the PPSF is at the lower end, and the lot is unusually large for the area (5600 sq. ft.). Open Sun. 2-4pm.

660 33rd is truly not our kind of newbie, but it is vast (5br/5ba, 4475 sq. ft.) and it has its style points. What we find garish about the stonework, others will find opulent. Starts at $2.949m. Open Sat. & Sun., 1-4pm.

A Twin Makes a Deal

More than 8 months ago, MBC took note of two brand-new homes, built by the same developer on a split lot, with the same layout but different design features.

We dubbed the pair, 3307 and 3309 Poinsettia, the "Twins in the Trees." (Click for details on 3309 via Redfin.)

It also seemed obvious that The Twins were starting much too high. Both homes are 5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft. – pretty much the max on 4640 sq. ft. lots – and both started at $2.795m. Newbies aren't generally going for those kinds of prices these days. So we put the subject up for discussion in a poll.

MBC's pricing polls often – but not always – appear to generate quite bearish results. This time, the vast majority of voters erred high. Though most were skeptical of that start price, fully 70% thought the Twins would go for more than $2.2m. (See "Poll Results: Twins in the Trees.")

That doesn't seem likely. 3307 Poinsettia (pictured) has now made a deal, but the last list price was $2.195m. If this one goes through, we won't have a closed price until, perhaps, year-end or early 2009.

Kudos appear to be in order to the 27% of voters who said the price would fall below $2.2m. (That was in March – do you even recall how you voted?)

And congrats are in order, as well, to the builders, who are among the very few sellers to make a deal this November.

Renting Could Cost You $300k

There remain lots of listings simultaneously for sale and for rent. (See our mid-September update, "Why Sell When You Can Rent?" Many are still available.)

The problem for a seller is: What happens if you succeed in finding a renter, not a buyer, and then need to bring the property back to market later?

2909 Elm offers a cautionary example. (Click for more pics & details via Redfin.)

This 5br/4ba, 3450 sq. ft. home (built 1991) was first offered 2 years ago – Dec. 2006 – at a price that was much too ambitious. (More on that in a moment.)

Over time the price came down, but never quite to market. The home rented out, instead, in July 2007.

Now it's back, much lighter than its last list price.

The price progression:

• Dec. 2006: $2.8m

• Spring 2007: $2.495m

• June 2007: $2.395m

• July 2007: $2.025m

• late July 2007: rented

• Today's price: $1.699m

Yes, that's a $1.1m fall from the absurd start price in late 2006.

Most significantly, this is a drop of $325k (-16%) from the sorta-close-to-market-price of Summer 2007 to the new reality of late 2008. In other words, by renting in 2007, the sellers were forced to come back to market more than $300k lower than before.

Need we also point out that this is a dreadful time of year to begin a listing? Renters can force awful timing on you when they leave on their own schedule.

The new price, by the way, isn't bad.

At a bit less than $500/PSF, 2909 Elm is at the lower end among recent sales in the Trees. For instance, comparably sized 3104 Palm (4br/3ba, 3425 sq. ft.) sold in July for $1.710m, and $499/PSF.

Out of 6 listings in the same general price range ($1.749m-$1.825m), 3 that stand out (2600 Poinsettia, 3011 Valley and 3314 Laurel) all have a PPSF just a tick or two above $500.

So, this time around, the sellers appear to mean business, but they do have a high hill to climb with the market as it stands. Had they been offered a low-ball last year and taken it, no doubt they'd be better off today.

Auctions Approach

This Sunday is the auction date for 5 new homes in MB and HB.

Auctions will occur at each individual property at the times listed below.

To bid, you must be registered by Friday using forms available at the website of the auction company.

Non-registered members of the public are welcome to attend any auction. MBC encourages even non-bidding readers to drop in on at least one.

Please see the MBC story "Name Your Price?" from one month ago for more detail on each home, including pics, links and original list prices.

Times on Sunday are as follows, earliest to latest, with auction start prices in parens:

540 21st, HB ($1.649m) – 10:00am

544 21st, HB ($1.699m) – 10:15am

2509 Palm, MB ($1.499m) – 11:30am

1405 Faymont, MB ($1.399m) – 12:30pm

1211 11th, MB ($1.450m) – 1:30pm

On the website of the auction company, be aware that these 5 properties are listed in a scrolling window titled "Upcoming Auctions." The top 3, and last 2, of the properties in that list are the 5 that go up Sunday. Use the red "Auction Information" button to download bidding registration documents.

We can't attend them all, so we ask readers who do attend to report back here on what you see, what people are saying, and how the final bids work out.

A Little Help: Professions

A recent suggestion for a reader poll rang a bell, and we'd like to post it.

The idea was to survey the MBC readership and identify the fields in which people work.

We'll do that, but there is a tension here in creating the list for the poll between being 0ver-inclusive and under-inclusive. We don't want a list that's like some gubmint form with 75 categories. But we don't want 35% of people to vote "other" if the list is too short.

Here are some ideas for the survey list:

• Health Care
• Finance
• Law
• Marketing/Sales
• Entertainment
• Communications
• Sports
• Engineering
• Manufacturing
• Education
• Government
• Nonprofit

Does that list include you, or not? Please use the comments here to suggest what's missing, or other ways to group or categorize professions/fields for the survey.

You will note that real estate is not (yet) a specific category. We know that many MBC readers are real estate professionals. In general, we're thinking we should ask everyone to squeeze into a broad category (RE would go into Marketing/Sales).

But perhaps RE calls for its own box, given MBC's content. What do you think?

After a bit of input, the poll will go up with a quick introductory story. Thanks in advance.

It Pays to Be Flexible

If you're going to sell in this market, you'll have to be flexible.

If what you are selling is a large ocean-view home in the Hill Section, feel free to begin by dreaming big.

And if things don't work out, get real.

There's always a tension between those goals – getting top dollar versus getting a deal done.

Over at 312 S. Dianthus, which recently sold, there were another couple of wrinkles to this oft-told story.

Not only did the sellers begin by dreaming big, they raised the price midstream (in 2008!) to reflect even bigger dreams.

And got a deal after the price boost! (See "How Quickly Things Change.")

But all that madness came to nothing. The deal collapsed, the home returned to market at the original price, and, over time, adjusted and adjusted.

The good news: It worked. They found another buyer.

The closed price last week: $2.6m.

That was -$890k/-26% from the start price of $3.490m. A pretty big adjustment. Good that they were flexible, no?

It was an even steeper drop from the oops-we-underpriced-our-home boosted price of $3.749m. From those stratospheric heights, the drop was $1.149m/-31%.

There seem to be plenty of cases of sellers whose homes are overpriced by double-digits, but discovering the problem and fixing it often takes much longer than it did at 312 S. Dianthus.

In the Hills, 2 other listings have sold in the past 6 months for 22% less than their start prices. Meanwhile, 5 active listings have taken cuts of $1 million or more. They're trying to be flexible.

How're Median Prices Doing?

At MBC we present a lot of data in a lot of different ways in an effort to gauge the local RE market's direction.

Our most popular undertaking came earlier this year, as we presented historical median price data going back to 1988. We got a few different stories and graphs and charts out of that deal:

The 90s: What a Drag (1989-2000)

Charting MB's Bubble (2000-2008)

The Whole Enchilada (1989-2008)

(Hat tip: The data was provided to MBC by a reader who purchased it from DataQuick Information Services. Thanks again!)

History is great, and the DQ data were useful, but we keep getting the question: What about now? How is MB doing as we speak?

That DQ data ended in March 2008, much too long ago to draw current inferences. So we've gone back to the well and packaged MLS data from 2000-2008 in these new charts. One looks at the whole period, and one hones in on the late bubble years, 2004-2008. (Click either chart to enlarge.)

Please note the caveats and thanks toward the end of this story under "Nerdy Notes."

In short, though, be aware that we are focusing here on a 6-month moving average of monthly median prices for SFRs only. Our source is MLS data. This is an imperfect way to present the medians, but medians are imperfect, too. We still can glean quite a bit.

What do we see here? There is the familiar rocket-fueled upward trajectory in prices in the 2000s, plus a double-peak spanning 2006-07:

• The SFR median hits $1m in about October 2002, and moves steadily upward from there.

• Median prices then rise 50% ($500k) over the next 29 months (Oct. 2002-March 2005).

• A first peak is hit in July 2006, another 23% higher (almost $350k) that the March 2005 figure, just 16 months later. [See second chart covering 2004-08.]

• A substantial decline in local median prices for SFRs begins in Summer 2006. Over 7 months, the median drops 14% by Feb. 2007.

• The downward trend reverses for 9 months, and a new peak is reached in Nov. 2007, at $1.932m.

• A new down trend takes hold in 2008, but it's not steep.
  

• The end-of-September, 6-month median of $1.707m is equivalent to the $1.705m figure last seen in December 2005, almost 3 years ago.

Looking at the totality of 2000-2008, the total rise in the 6-month moving-average median illustrated here is from $798k in June 2000 (our first data point), to the peak at $1.932m in Nov. 2007. That's is a jump of $1.132m in the median price in less than 8 years, or a 142% increase.

Interestingly, the boost in medians in the last part of 2007, after the first big wave of financial shocks in Summer 2007, coincided with a sharp decline in sales volume. As an example, the peak month, November, had very few closed sales (13, far less than the lowest November total of the decade, 24), and a very high single-month median ($2.450m).

Also, MBC has previously reported that the 4th quarter of 2007 was slower, relative to the first 3 quarters of that year, than all of the 4th quarters going back 20 years (see "4th Quarter Often Quietest").

That increasing median during 2007, along with a median that is still holding up well today, despite pressures at all levels, presents a question: How has the sales mix changed, if at all? Are more higher-end homes selling now, relative to other times, as many suspect?

There's no satisfactory way to answer that question, however, even if you've got all the data in front of you. (We don't.) Medians provide perhaps the best indication of what's happening in the market. But they miss a lot of color.

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Nerdy notes:

First, a caveat. Do not compare these charts to the DQ data from those earlier stories. DataQuick compiled sales data on all residential property transactions in MB, regardless of whether they ever hit the MLS. It's more inclusive, of course. Also, the DQ data included condos and townhomes, not normally part of MBC's coverage.

This selection of MLS data excludes condos and THs, and obviously misses off-market transactions. Because this median price data only covers SFRs, the numbers are a bit higher. (In other words, including condos and THs mostly drags down median prices.)

Second, another couple of hat tips. First, to Kaye Thomas, who posts these numbers on her blog on a regular basis for anyone to review and use. And when MBC discovered some discrepancies, she re-ran her numbers and fixed 2007-2008 data discrepancies. Thanks, Kaye!

Also, we got substantial help compiling this info from a reader who responded quite quickly to a request for help. Once we ran into those data discrepancies, we had to slow down again, but we'll be back soon with the fruits of some more of that reader's work, compiling median PPSF data.

Alert readers may note that we previously provided inflation-adjusted figures for the 2000-2008 period alongside the nominal-price figures. This time, we present only nominal price data, i.e., prices in the years in which the sales occurred.

Open Forum (11/17-11/23)

Normally we uncork a bottle of Open Forum for Monday, but it seems the newest "Weekend Opens" feature just started to take on that role. Comments and flames ran hot and heavy, and far afield from the selected homes.

There must be something in the air.

One of the gems that came out of the storm of comments was a link to a new story by writer Michael Lewis (author of Liar's Poker and Moneyball) for Portfolio.com, titled simply, "The End" (click story title to read).

The rather long, personality-driven piece offers some great insider perspective from folks who were horrified about how this house of cards got built – but found ways to profit as it started to flame out. Worth a read.

Also, early this week MBC will post some new median price data for MB SFRs through the end of the 3rd Qtr. 2008.

As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. And keep it clean.

Weekend Opens (11/15-11/16)

The biggest news these days is the price chops.

If you mean to sell in 2008, you had better start making it look like that's your goal.

A few listings stand out this week, so we're focusing on one "Featured Chop" in each of our 3 submarkets. And don't forget the auctions, coming up next week.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

Featured Chop: 808 Highview (5br/5ba, 4575 sq. ft.) is a terrific, ocean-view home that's been around since June, when it began at $5.250m. They made a deal in late August when the home was priced at $4.850m – the same price at which it returned in late September.

Two chops later, it's now at $3.999m (-$1.25m/-24%).

Get this: 808 Highview is just 1 of 5 Hillies that are now down $1m or more from start – 1 of 3 that are down by at least $1.25m.

Open Sun. 2-4pm.

511 N. Dianthus hasn't cut recently, but it's quite nearly the least pricey Hill Section listing, and it is down $160k overall to $1.269m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Sand Section

Featured Chop: The quick flip at 704 Highland (pictured) has cut $100k to $1.449m.

That's not big news, perhaps, but the 3br/3ba, 1550 sq. ft. home has also posted for rent ($4,500/mo.) AND the slug in the Beach Reporter beseeches buyers to "bring all offers." From all of that activity, we take it that they are trying to get something done.

The flip was purchased for $1.199m in May and hit the market just after Labor Day. Open Saturday only, 2-4pm.

If it's Sunday, that must mean 317 5th is open, as it has been almost every weekend since April. That's good exposure for the agents holding the place open, but it's not selling the house.

The 1990s-vintage contemporary home is still priced at $3.1m, with just a single cut of $100k over 6 months. When it began, we admit, that price seemed to MBC to be a bit aggressive. Maybe time for a real cut if something is going to happen. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

Featured Chop: 2504 Poinsettia (pictured) is a new home that promised, back in May when it began, not to be a "cookie-cutter" newbie. And that's true. It's stylish, with a sort of Mediterranean-modern feel outside and an Asian contemporary feel inside. It might be a bit too unique, though, and the boxy basement bedrooms have proved to be a turnoff.

With a new $270k cut this week, 2504 Poinsettia is down $600k/-24% from its start at $2.499m. It's now 1 of 3 new Tree Section homes priced below $2m, at $1.899m. We'll say it, that is starting to look aggressive. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

1948 Ardmore (pictured) ain't much to look at from the outside – kinda boxy, kinda 50s. But it's a decent size (3br/2ba, 2000 sq. ft.) and priced kinda nicely at $1.240m.

The great room with glass doors on both sides, opening to a yard and view deck, is a nice attribute. Location is pretty sweet, too, on the bend across from Live Oak park and fairly near downtown. Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.

2500 Oak got some exposure at MBC earlier in the week, as a home that could set a new low for full-lot Tree Section homes, on account of its very awkward location at Marine/Sepulveda. (See "A New Low.") The least we can do is drive some traffic to the open. (Oooh, unfortunate choice of cliché.) Starts at $824,900. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

659 31st (4br/3ba, 3475 sq. ft.) (pictured) was going to be our featured property for the week. But good things don't always last. This remodel on one of MBC's "Great Streets" was snapped up within a week. It's posted in "Backup Offer" status, which means you can still view pics & details now even though they've got a buyer.

This is a flip, purchased last year for $1.950m, remodeled and offered not much above that at $2.189m. It was scheduled to be open Sun. 1-4pm – if that's still on, we'll make that clear in an update to this story.


Bonus: Auction Homes

A few weeks ago we called attention to 5 homes, 3 in MB and 2 in HB, that are headed for auction next Sunday, Nov. 23. (See "Name Your Price?" for more on the auction and the homes.)

The MB homes are:

2509 Palm

1211 11th

1405 Faymont

All are open Sat. & Sun., 1-4pm.

And Then There Were 4

It has been more than a year since 1212 The Strand (pictured) sold for $10.7 million.

If we're not wrong, no MB homes on The Strand have been offered publicly for sale since then.

And now, quite suddenly, there are 4 options on The Strand, 3 of them just listed this week.

None is as big and polished as 1212 The Strand, a very sleek modern that offered 4br/5ba, 4600 sq. ft. on a 3300 sq. ft. lot.

At least 2 of these are lot sales, and a third could go either way – someone may adopt the existing structures, or not. Just one is move-in-ready for the average $7m+ buyer.

Click on any pic in this story to enlarge.

As always, click any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

204 The Strand is a teardown – a 3300-sq.-ft. lot that will set you back $8.2m just for the dirt.

A new, neighboring home at 2nd/The Strand is being built now, and two doors to the north is the famous (infamous?) triple-lot-merger mega-home, also under construction. So what's a little more construction in the area for the next 2 years or so?

You are in for $11m or so by move-in day, 2011.


2700 The Strand is a newer (2006) condo with 2br/4ba and 2800 sq. ft. of living space.

The corner-lot location fronts the Strand and runs along the grassy park now known as Bruce's Beach.
Extra bonus: The officially-not-private putting green on the west side of The Strand belongs to, er, is maintained by, this homeowner, so you get that nice perk.

Downside, permanent: You share a wall with the folks at 2702 The Strand.

Downside, temporary: Bad timing on this listing – a gigantic, invasive sewer repair project is under way on the park land and Strand area just to the south. It's disruptive and blocks the views. However, given that the subterranean sewage pumping plant here was the source of a massive sewage spill in Jan. 2006, the repair must be viewed as welcome.

2700 The Strand is listed for $6.9m, nearly $2,500/PSF. (The PPSF on 1212 The Strand was $2326.)

3216 The Strand is an older home with separate rental unit. Total square footage is listed as 6br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft. The lot is a big larger than some others at 3500 sq. ft.

Though it's touted as "charming and livable," with upgrades within the past 10 years, 3216 The Strand is listed "for lot value" at $7.3m.

Note the difference of $900k here, compared with the start price at 204 The Strand.

You're still in for $10m+ to move in.

3404 The Strand is a custom, Spanish-style, 2-building home on a 3500 sq. ft. lot.

This is probably the toughest nut of the bunch. Here's a home with individuality and character that deserves some love. Update it, and you have a true MB home, standing apart from the encroaching ultramoderns and Mediterraneans and all that.

But a listing that starts at $7.8m is not reaching a lot of fixer-upper types who want the compromises that come with someone else's 1970s-vintage custom home.

We've seen nicer homes knocked down in the name of progress, and they weren't sitting on $8-million-dollar dirt.

Fighting the Future

What to do with location-challenged new construction in the Tree Section?

Do you try for the $2m+ that newbies have gotten in recent years, or start closer to current market?

At 3413 Pacific, the start price is over $2m – $2.095m, to be exact – presumably to establish some wiggle room for a future sale below that.

In recent months we have seen a few new homes drop below $2m to make a deal, including two in better locations on Pacific:

• 3104 Pacific (5br/5ba, 3200 sq. ft.), which hung around 6 months before selling for $1.950m in Feb. 2008;
  

• 2709 Oak (5br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft.), which lasted 500+ days before grabbing $1.950m in March;

• 2309 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft.), which logged more than 300 DOM before going for $1.890m in April;

• 2611 Palm (5br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft.), which shot for the record at 600+ DOM and sold for $1.850m in mid-October.

Those were fairly recent developments, but look no further than a couple of doors down from newbie 3413 Pacific for a cautionary tale.

In March 2006, a new home at 3405 Pacific (4br/4ba, 3200 sq.ft.) went up at $2.149m. The home was nice in some respects, but flawed in others. That location became a punishment. The home's view windows to the north actually featured the refinery. (What!?!)

Over time – a year, actually – the problems settled themselves and the home sold for $1.775m in March 2007. That may be the key comp, because 3413 Pacific is also also oriented toward the refinery. And the 35th/Pacific corner location exaggerates the impact of rush-hour traffic due to the 4-way stop.

This home was offered for rent (at $9,500/mo.) when it was first completed, and we referenced it in a mid-September story about listings offered for sale and for rent at the same time. (See "Why Sell When You Can Rent?")

Now they're offering it for sale, but they're not yet really trying to sell it yet. If they meant to unload this one, it'd be on a par with the neighbor, or lower. Perhaps some day it will be.

MB Not-So-Confidential

Over time it has become our policy and practice here at MBC not to mention names.

Property owners, buyers, builders and realtors go unnamed in our main stories. The blog author is anonymous, as are the commenters. The occasional exceptions prove the rule.

However, if you want names to go with your local real estate news, it's time to check out Blockshopper.com.

We just discovered this site by accident a couple of weeks ago. It's a real estate site that publishes information about the parties to residential property transactions all over the LA area. (Interestingly, their main front page does not mention LA at all, just Chicago, St. Louis, South Florida and Las Vegas – areas they began writing about before LA.)

Blockshopper provides the information in a few different ways:

• NEWS BRIEFS – In short news stories, the site publishes information on buyers and sellers. (Click for the Blockshopper MB news page.)

The stories are typically surface-deep, giving just a little info about the parties and rudimentary details about the homes that change hands. There's often a photo of one of the buyers.

A stream of recent headlines from MB tell you who is buying these days: an "investment firm exec," a pediatric dentist, an "oncologist/urologist couple," a corporate lawyer... and so on.

Though the stories aren't indepth, and seem prone to error on some points, they're undoubtedly interesting. MBC now provides a "feed" of the most recent MB stories from Blockshopper in the right-hand column, under the feeds for 2 other local RE blogs.

• RECENT SALES & INFO – We think you'll find another part of the Blockshopper site useful and irresistible for an occasional drop-by: The MB city page.

This page provides a list of recent sales by address, most recent at the top. (It's not up-to-the-minute; in fact, it's about 30+ days behind.) Click any address, and the site offers as much transaction data on the property as possible, going back 15 years or so.

Other parts of the page publish recent sales figures (medians and sales volume since 2000) and some foreclosure information. One has the sense that these fields could be developed more fully with greater investment.

• STREET-LEVEL INFO – We've saved the guiltiest pleasure for last. On the MB city page's left-hand column, you can select "Find your Manhattan Beach..." and "Street" to see a pull-down list of the streets in town.

Selecting a street gives you a list of all the properties on that street with the names of owners next to each address. Many properties have notes regarding recent sales.

This makes it uniquely simple to scan the names of your neighbors and answer, at a glance, the question plenty of people ask: Who are they, and much did they pay for that place?

(We should note here that our favorite free tool for indepth info on individual properties is PropertyShark.com.)

Of course, all of this information that Blockshopper provides is not meant purely for voyeuristic purposes. The goal is to provide some new level of shared market intelligence that helps both buyers and sellers.

The site represents a new level of free information for web-savvy consumers. Just a couple of years ago, obtaining much of this information required a pricey subscription or a series of arduous, in-person visits to far-flung county records offices.

Blockshopper is clearly a work in progress, but we generally like what they've done. The news briefs could be improved, and maybe they will be, once the site operators start to get more feedback from MB-area readers.

Let us know in the comments here what you find, what you like and what you don't like on Blockshopper. We know they'll be listening.

Open Forum (11/11-11/17)

Time for a new open forum.

First, we note the passing into history of MBC's 2-week experiment with an open thread on politics.

Few loved it, though many used it. Before and after the election, plenty of emotion and argument poured out.

Let's raise a glass now, not to praise the politics thread, but to bury it. It's time.

Second, please note that Tuesday is a holiday for many folks in honor of Veterans Day. Our local event starts at 11am at 15th/Valley by the Veterans' Monument.

As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. And keep it clean.

A New Low

Something to think about on your commute in the next couple of days...

The value for a home in one of the most challenged locations west of Sepulveda is now up for determination.

2500 Oak (click for pics & details via Redfin) shares the triple-whammy challenges of being on Oak (on the "wrong" side, no less), bordering Marine Ave. and being potentially hazardous to a resident's health.

The location is a car-exhaust magnet during the morning rush. Cars lining up to turn at or cross Sepulveda can stack up pretty far down the hill at Marine then, and there are often several cars lined up next to this house waiting for lights at other times of day. (On a brighter note, when everyone switches to hydrogen or electric cars, one liability of the location will be lessened.)

The home itself is on the small side, with 3br/2ba and 1350 sq. ft., and it's pretty dated, showing its 1950s vintage. The listing does not feature an exterior shot, but MBC has helpfully provided one.

So what's the home worth? It starts at $824,900, which is already $15k less than any Tree Section since MBC started up in Spring 2007.

3301 Valley, a smaller home on a half-lot, got $840k in June, while another half-lot home at 3119 Valley got $760k in August.

Among full-size lots (4480-4640. sq ft.), the recent low is 3612 Poinsettia, a much smaller home than Oak with less of a location challenge, which got $849k in July.

Since this story first appeared, a few readers have noted that 3529 Walnut hit the market a couple days ago at $779k, not quite $50k less than 2500 Oak. If either one sells, they're sure to set a new low in the local RE market. And after that...


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UPDATE: One additional sale and one additional active listing were added since the first version of the story appeared. Thanks to multiple readers for the additional information.

See the Trees Sunday (11/9)

Regular readers know that MBC's weekly open-house feature can be a challenge sometimes when there is a shortage of new listings being held open.

Don't get us wrong: There is no shortage of opens this weekend. It's just that, in our rigorous perusal of the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, we see only one SFR west of Sepulveda that we have not already highlighted in at least one previous "Weekend Opens" feature. We prefer to keep things fresh.

So we're going with a theme here. Picking up on our most recent story on 2300 Poinsettia, we're suggesting that you go see some of the homes mentioned in that story that are open this weekend. All are in the Trees, except one on the border in the gaslight district.

This may help to better inform the votes in the current pricing poll.

As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin. We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like, what you don't like, what you'd change if you owned a particular home, and so on. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

And tell 'em MBC sent you.


2300 Poinsettia is the star of the weekend, in a sense. The recently remodeled, 4br/3ba, 2050 sq. ft. home is up at $1.749m, and early poll results are suggesting very few people agree with that start price. Open Sun. 1-4pm, according to the listing.

3314 Laurel is priced only a bit higher at $1.825m and offers much greater space and a super-crisp remodel. You have to think that price is getting flexible after 4 months and as we enter the 3 months of dead time known as the Holiday Season. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

539 23rd, as we noted the other day, needs work but offers almost the same square footage as 2300 Poinsettia in a superior location. Currently at $1.475m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

2829 Valley (5br/4ba, 3425 sq. ft.) is a new home that reflects a new reality. New homes in the Trees always used to start above $2m, but this one began a tad below ($1.989m) and is already at $1.899m. We mentioned it in reference to 2300 Poinsettia because it didn't seem so far above that much smaller remodel's start price, and it could fall further.

2829 Valley is one we're watching to possibly set a new low for new homes in the Trees. A year ago, a new home at 3113 Valley with the same lot size and interior size sold for $2.225m, or $326k more than the current list price at 2829. The lowest closed-sale price we've seen for new construction in the Trees in 2 years was $1.775m for 3405 Pacific (4br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft.).

2829 Valley is open Sun. 1-4pm.

1901 Walnut is a new home (5br/5ba, 3125 sq. ft.) that has been on the market for 10 weeks but hasn't drawn specific notice in any MBC stories. It's the only SFR in the BR's open house listings that we haven't referenced before.

We love the corner-lot location but find the home sadly predictable. (Don't take our word for it – the slug in the open-house listings says it's "captivating.")

The only tie back to 2300 Poinsettia here is that both homes are blue (a stretch, we know, but we're trying to keep a theme going).

Priced at $2.389m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

Pricing Poll: 2300 Poinsettia

Pricing a home is both art and science. It's always inexact. The market will ultimately tell you what's right.

And yet, sometimes, if a listing is terribly overpriced, it's obvious.

The sellers of 2300 Poinsettia are going to need some advice, and soon. (Click any highlighted address in this story for more pics & details via Redfin.)

They have listed this modest 4br/3ba, 2050 sq. ft. home at $1.749m, which seems wrong for all kinds of reasons.

MBC readers can try to help steer them right, so they might avoid the scenario we've seen play out time and again recently – start too high, and you could hang around for a year or more and chase the market down.

Case in point: 1829 Poinsettia, a tricked-out cottage that began more than 500 days ago in May 2007 at $1.785m, and restarted again this week (4th agent) at $1.199m (-$586k/-33% from last year's beginning price).

It doesn't have to be that way at 2300 Poinsettia. Can you help?

Please read the story below and vote in our new pricing poll. Explain your vote in the comments. The home is open this Sunday, 1-4pm, so we'll hold the vote open till 8 p.m. Tuesday night to give time for people to see it and review it.


Let's start with the last sale at 2300 Poinsettia. The home was listed for several months in 2006, beginning at $1.399m. Over time it settled down, and was acquired for $1.269m in Jan. 2007. The price per square foot: $619/PSF.

The markup today, less than 2 years later, is +$480k (+38%), and the new PPSF is $852.

The listing calls this is a remodel with great attention to detail. No question, the home needed some help – in its 2006 version, it was sweet in parts, but frumpy in others. In theory, you get a little bump for the updating, but probably not $480k.

The home itself has a couple of liabilities that no update can cure. The location is more or less at the end of intersecting, downsloping 23rd St., which someone once told us was bad feng shui.

Meanwhile, the home is built on a downslope lot, with some of the bedrooms and living spaces below grade – a bit dark for our tastes.

By way of comparison, let's first look at a few comparably sized homes in the area:

• 2907 Pacific offers 1br, 1ba and 150 sq. feet less than our subject property here, but it's sweet, nicely updated, and all on one level, which can be a real plus for some families. Pacific recently trimmed down to $1.099m ($578/PSF).

• Nearby, 2622 Pacific offers 1br less and 250 sq. ft. more in living space. Location is an issue but the home stacks up decently against 2300 Poinsettia. Listed at $1.299m ($568/PSF). (Two failed escrows on this one were both buyer-side problems, we are assured.)

• 539 23rd is on a quiet street in the gaslight section, straddling the Tree Section and Sand. It offers 4br/2ba and 1900 sq. ft. on a smaller lot (3650 sq. ft.) and is dated in parts. If you're willing to work a bit, this one has a leg up on 2300 Poinsettia, but is priced at $1.475m ($776/PSF).

So there are some decent options priced $274k-$650k lower.

Now, let's look at what else you can get for about $1.749m in the Tree Section:

• In this price ballpark, our hands-down favorite is 3314 Laurel (pictured), currently at $1.825m with 4 months of service time. This home is far larger than 2300 Poinsettia, offering 4br/3ba and 3450 sq. ft., and the recent remodel is incredibly crisp and professional. Note: The PPSF here is $529/PSF.

• Just a few blocks down the road from our subject property is 2600 Poinsettia, also considerably larger at 4br/4ba and 3200 sq. ft. Great atmosphere, landscaping and custom touches, now at $1.799m.

• If you don't mind busier streets, you can get new or newer homes at 646 Rosecrans (new) for $1.750m, 3011 Valley (newer) for $1.799m, 3212 Blanche (newer) for $1.849m or 2829 Valley (new) for $1.899m. All are larger by 500-1200 sq. ft.

Amid this selection, 2300 Poinsettia appears to be out of its league.

The home is slated to be open to the public this Sunday, 1-4pm. We'll reference it again in the "Weekend Opens" feature.

If 2300 Poinsettia sells, how much should it sell for?