Weekend Opens (2/28-3/1)

One of the upsides to the slower RE market is the proliferation of houses to go see, if that's your sort of thing. And increasingly, there are great homes in MB being opened to John Q. Public to browse, ponder and be inspired by.

Certainly all 3 of our Hill Section listings this weekend are like that. (Note: One, 717 Poinsettia, is open Saturday only.)

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

814 10th is a new home that dominates a double corner lot with huge interior square footage – 5br/7ba and 9,000 sq. ft. of living space. Great Cape Cod styling and big-time city/mountain views. Starts at $6.995m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

A bit further east and also boasting city views is 906 9th, a new Mediterranean with 6br/6ba, 5300 sq. ft. Lots of unique touches. There have been nibbles already. Starts at $4.9m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Not new, but very classy, is 717 Poinsettia (4br/5ba, 4200 sq. ft.), making its open-house debut after about 4 months on market. This one's another double corner lot, but instead of views you get gorgeous, lush landscaping unmatched in most of MB (huge plus in our book), and a big, secluded south-facing back yard. Currently at $4.499m. NOTE: Open Sat. only, 2-4pm.


Sand Section

429 31st (4br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.) is a newer Cape Cod up on the plateau. Starts at $2.199m, almost $300k below its May 2005 purchase price. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

228 16th is west of Highland on one of the great walkstreets near downtown. What else do you need to know?

It's a remodel, smaller than the maxed-out new homes more common on the market, with part of the 4br/6ba, 2950 sq. ft. coming from the apartment/guest suite in back. Starts at $2.950m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

2407 Manhattan Ave. baffles us a bit. The listing shows just 1br in the 1940-vintage, spiffed-up, 1200 sq. ft. cottage. Is that what $1.075m buys near the beach? Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

3505 Pacific drew a mention here at MBC the other day as one of several listings to start out below their acquisition prices (Jan. 2004: $1.350m; now: $1.299m).

But that's not the only reason it is worth a serious look. More-than-adequate family living space (4br/3ba, 2850 sq. ft.) and some sweet common areas open up to the bigger-than-average yard on this double lot. Not so much curb appeal, a busy street, the refinery, sure, but you live inside, and this home is warm. Starts at $1.299m. Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.

3413 Pacific is a new home (5br/6ba, 3400 sq. ft.) just across the street form 3505 Pacific, so it's easy to drop in. We don't really recommend the home, a mishmash of styles outside that happens to be well-staged inside. Despite a recent cut to $1.849m, we think it's here to stay a while without major price changes. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

1821 Palm is an 18-year-old home with some thorough updating. It's on the big side (4br/4ba, 3525 sq. ft.) and offers a nice location. Even $2.175m, the recently adjusted price, is going to be rough given the competition these days. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Losing Our Bounce

Day after day this week, new listings have hit the market starting out below their acquisition prices.

We list them here in order of the reduction from acquisition price, lowest to highest:

• 3505 Pacific, a delightful family home (4br/3ba, 2850 sq. ft.) on a nearly double-wide lot with a big location challenge, was purchased for $1.350m in Jan. 2004, but starts now at $1.299m (-$51k).
  

• 1604 Poinsettia (5br/4ba, 3125 sq. ft., 2004 build) was last purchased in Dec. 2005 for $2.2m, and began this week at $2.099m (-$101k).

• 528 6th (2005 build) is a sharp, angular modern that made a few appearances on MBC in 2008. Last purchased 3 years ago in Feb. 2006 for $2.995m, now offered for $2.799m (-$196k).
  

• 429 31st (4br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft., 2002 build) is a Cape Cod up on the plateau that takes the biggest hit among these, right out of the blocks. Last purchased in May 2005 for $2.490m, it starts now at $2.199m (-$291k).

Also this week, 1821 Palm (4br/4ba, 3525 sq. ft., 1990 build, updated) – which we noted just last week in "Not Worth Their '05 Prices?" as one that was "slipping closer" to its April 2005 price ($2.250m) – chopped below its acquisition price to $2.175m.

Pause a moment to recall the go-go days of the early-to-mid-2000s. If you bought a home in Manhattan Beach in any year starting with a 2 and later sold it, you made money. That was true for almost everyone in MB through some point in 2007. No longer.

The turnaround here is pretty stunning, even while we take as givens the broader real estate and financial market meltdowns.

The acquisition dates for these properties range from 5 years ago (Jan. 2004) to 3 years ago (Feb. 2006). If the broader local market is to be evaluated in light of these listings, these data points add to the suggestion that we're living in 2005 right now, pricewise, with real risk to the downside.

Some good news: The stock market is now living in 1997, so we're still better off in MB.

Tax Time

The new president will help pay for the government's big new debt and some new undertakings with tax increases. According to the WSJ:

The tax increases would raise an estimated $318 billion over 10 years by reducing the value of such longstanding deductions as mortgage interest and charitable contributions for people in the highest tax brackets. Households paying income taxes at the 33% and 35% rates can currently claim deductions at those rates. Under the Obama proposal, they could deduct only 28% of the value of those payments.

The changes would be phased in gradually over the next few years. For the 2009 tax year, the 33% tax bracket starts with couples with taxable earnings of $208,850, when adjusted for personal exemptions and various deductible expenses. A taxpayer in the top bracket paying $1,000 of mortgage interest, for example, would see a tax break worth $350 reduced to $280.

There are several other proposals in here worth discussing. The WSJ already has a whole page devoted to the new budget.

Your blog author is otherwise occupied at this time, so this post launches a new Open Forum to deal strictly with the tax issue and potential impacts on real estate, particularly locally.

Challenge yourself to limit the politics and grandstanding and keep the discussion on economics and RE. Thanks.

February to Date

MBC never posted a mid-month spreadsheet for February, so this next one will cover the whole month.

But rather than wait through the weekend, let's look at some highlights to date for the month:

• 14 sales (new escrows) have posted among SFRs west of Sepulveda, a respectable pace, perhaps the best in 4-6 months – we'll evaluate that formally in a few more days;

• 6 cancellations also reduced inventory; and

• Whoops, 36 new listings have come on over the same period.

Add it all up, and our interim SFR inventory number is 138 as we write here, a few days before month's end.

As you may recall, January's month-end total of 122 was the highest MBC had reported in almost 2 years of public market tracking. Looks like we'll punch through that record this month.

At the end of February one year ago, inventory stood at 84. (See "MB Market Update for 2/29/08.") So it's different now.

2 Years and $1.3m Later...

Looks like time for an update to our Nov. 2008 story, "Renting Could Cost You $300k."

There we discussed the case of 2909 Elm, a 5br/4ba, 3450 sq. ft. home, built in 1991, that was first marketed in Dec. 2006 and always seemed to be listed well above its market value.

The property rented out rather than selling in Summer 2007, last listed for a bit over $2m. It came back on the market almost 18 months later – and $300k lighter. Here's the full price progression, as provided in the previous installment:

• Dec. 2006: $2.8m

• Spring 2007: $2.495m

• June 2007: $2.395m

• July 2007: $2.025m

• late July 2007: rented

• Nov. 2008: $1.699m

Now, 2909 Elm is finally in escrow, and we're hearing the deal is closer to $1.5m.

Technically, that's about $1.3m (-46%) off the start price. But let's not call that a market indicator. The size of that chop only really tells you how sorely unrealistic the start price really was.

We concur with a commenter's guess that this home could have sold in the rush of Spring 2007 for something like $1.8m. But it was priced then about $600k-$700k too high at the time, and the sellers were holding out.

Often when a property rents out instead of selling, it's a reflection of the seller's bet that dropping out for a while and coming back to sell later will mean re-entering a more stable, normal market where you can get your price.

That's not what happened between Summer 2007 and now. But they did find a buyer, and not everyone can say that these days.

------------------------------

UPDATE: As of Monday, March 2, the escrow on 2909 Elm appeared to have failed, and the property was re-posted as active.

New Lows Achieved in Trees

In early November, we greeted a new listing at 2500 Oak (3br/2ba, 1350 sq. ft.) with the suggestion that its successful sale might mark "A New Low" for values west of Sepulveda.

That story has now panned out pretty much as expected. The sale has closed at $738k, off a bit from the start at $824,900 (-$87k/-10%).

That makes 2500 Oak the lowest-priced full-lot (4840 sq. ft.) Tree Section sale in the last 6 months, and for a long time before that, too.

A smaller house (2br/1ba, 875 sq. ft.) on a bigger lot (5350 sq. ft.) at 772 Rosecrans sold for a trifle more, $744k, in late January.

Meanwhile, a 2br/1ba, 850 sq. ft. home on a half-lot at 3119 Valley fetched $720k last August, the low-water mark for the area, it appears. (MBC initially reported a price of $760k, which we believe came from the MLS, while tax records show the sale at $720k.)

2500 Oak, you will recall, has a screaming liability of a corner location at Marine/Sepulveda. The other 2 sales mentioned here are on busy streets as well, which will tend to mean they'll come in lower to account for location.

Despite the price, we're not expecting to see Oak razed. Increasingly, we're seeing buyers taking less-desirable but lower-priced homes and tidying them up for someone to live in – maybe themselves. As the cost of entry drops, more people who want in will take what they can get, even if that means pouncing on smaller homes with big challenges.

-------------------------------

UPDATE: Shortly after this story was published, 2111 Valley hit the market – listed as a full lot (4400 sq. ft.) with a "major fixer" 3br/1ba, 1000 sq. ft. home on the land. Price: $638,000.

MBB THs Dropping

We'll say it again, the very idea behind building three pricey new condos right on busy MBB was "surprising," to say the least. (See "A Surprising Development on MBB.")

Those start prices – now eroding.

• The big one of the group (3br/3ba, 2500 sq. ft.), legally known as 1110 John, is down 15% from start in less than a month since the listing began. That's a drop from $1.793m to $1.525m early this week.

• The middle-sized TH (2br/2ba, 1800 sq. ft.), 1108 John, started at $1.450m and has taken a big cut of $251k (-17%) to $1.199m.

• The smallest (2br/2ba, 1550 sq. ft.), 1106 John, is now at $1.149m, down $150k/-11% from start.

Also a note from our first story – we pointed out that HOA dues, according to the listings, ranged from $497-$640. We were hoping someone would clarify whether these figures were very small annual dues or unfathomable monthlies. For now, the HOA figures have simply been dropped from the listings.

MBC mentioned the MBB trio in this weekend's "Sunday Opens" feature. One commenter called the finishes "quite simple" and wondered aloud whether the "European concept" behind the homes – a phrase attributed to the realtor on site – would fly in MB.

It might fly, somewhere in MB. Right there? Well, surprise us.

------------------------------------------------

UPDATE: After this story was posted, 1108 John took a price cut that made it the biggest cut of the 3 mentioned here. Details in the story are updated.

Open Forum (2/24-3/2)

Some day not so far up and around the corner, it will be MBC's 2-year anniversary.

As that approaches, maybe you share our sense that the blog design is huffing and puffing, a wheel or two may be coming loose, and maybe it's time to take the old Honda into the shop. We're feeling that way, anyway. Here's why:

• In recent days, the surf report widget reported a water temp of 128 degrees. Maybe some day, but not now.

• The weather forecast has gone buggy right at a time when the weather is actually a bit interesting. Sure, much of the year we could plug in a picture of "69 degrees" and let that be that. But now's an awkward time for that info box to quit.

• And of course, the comments system. Egad, the comments system. We got "Intense Debate" because Blogger's "recent comments" feed broke. Once Blogger got fixed, we were kind of attached to the new system – did you notice how no one begins comments with "Hey, anon 2:18" anymore? Alas, the new system has now broken in the same way... the "recent comments" feed is stuck.

Rest assured, we're working on the look and function of MBC with that 2-year anniversary in mind. Some wonderful people in central and southern Asia have offered to help. (We've given up on the local teens.)

We're looking at some other changes, too. As regular readers know, MBC is always a work in progress, responding to your feedback as surely as we do to developments in the market.

So we hope you'll bear with us through this ongoing evolution.

----------------------------------------------------

As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. And keep it clean.

Sunday Opens (2/22)

If you're back early from Ski Week, there's a lot to catch up on at MBC. Plenty of new and newsworthy opens to drop in on as well.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

620 9th drew MBC's notice the other day for its aggressive pricing (see "Low on the Hill"). Wow, $2.199m for a large (4br/4ba, 4500 sq. ft.) Hill Section property with ocean views and a yard? A location that actually invites you to walk everywhere?

What, was the listing in pesos? No. The home needs some updating, and, more importantly, the sellers don't need to be convinced this market is tough. Expect a busy open. Note the late time: 3-5pm.

How do you feel about life on MBB? Turns out 2 of the 3 new THs at MBB/John St. are open this weekend to offer you the chance to imagine it firsthand.

Yes, they're THs, which MBC doesn't normally cover, but we've already written up this new complex, which includes a commercial element right on MBB, too. (See "A Surprising Development on MBB.")

1106 John (2br/2ba, 1600 sq. ft.) is priced at $1.299m.

1108 John (2br/2ba, 1800 sq. ft.) began at $1.450m, and is now at $1.379m.

Both are Open Sun. 2-4pm.


Sand Section

2616 Highland is open earliest (Sun. 12-2:30) so we'll mention it first. This is a 3br/4ba, 2400 sq. ft. home with big, big views over Bruce's Beach (pictured) out to the Pacific.

The home's updated, and, while it's not huge for $2.199m, just try to find a beach-close view home that compares. Worth noting, also: the May 2005 acquisition price was a trickle over $2m. Open early Sun. 12-2:30.

229 24th is a brand-new home by a luxury builder whose stuff we often like. (Including the couldn't sell, had-to-rent newbie at 332 20th.) This one is west of Highland, though just one door west, and is maxed out sizewise (5br/4ba, 4230 sq. ft.). There are no pics at this writing so we're waiting to be surprised. Starts at $5.495m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

UPDATE: A reference to the lot purchase price for 229 24th has been deleted.

Tree Section

591 26th is a newer (2001) build that seems to have held up well, with sharp details and plenty of space (5br/5ba, 3650 sq. ft.). Location on 26th is nice but it is quite close to Bell and the school. This one adds something nice to the increasingly intriguing resale market, starting at $1.949m. Acquired new in 2001 for $1.390m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

2509 Palm is open again. We now hear that a buyer grabbed this failed auction house for $1.550m recently after the bank took it back for $1.5m (against $1.8m owed) in January. Last week, apparently no one dropped in and asked why they think they can get $1.799m, after the market rejected the property at $1.499m/$1.640m when it was up for auction. Your chance: Sun. 1-4pm.

Another Newbie Way Down

Not much happens on a Saturday, but a loud ping just hit us.

The warm, large (4br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.) new modern at 560 36th chopped $400k more today, and is now at $1.799m (-$1.2m/-40% from start).

MBC last mentioned this house 10 days ago in a writeup on new construction in distress, on account of a notice of default filed against the property. (See "First Hill Newbie to Go Short.") The amount outstanding exceeds that new market price, according to what we can see on PropertyShark.com.

36th is now 1 of 5 new homes in the Trees priced below $2m – that never used to happen. At $473/PSF, it's also about $100/PSF lower than the rest.

More Hill Dirt Options

If you absolutely must start from scratch to build yourself a Hill Section estate, your options for dirt are now up to 4 on the public market.

Here they are in price order:

• 1022 1st (click for pics & details via Redfin) is high up on the hill – almost too high, near Sepulveda – with bona fide ocean views but a smallish lot, just 4800 sq. ft. It's up now at $1.497m. Try to ignore the bogus re-lists – this one has been on offer since June 3, 2008, when it started at $1.9m.

Of course, one problem for this listing is that buying the lot and building it out won't give you anything as great, for the money, as neighboring 1042 1st, a 5br/5ba, 4800 sq. ft. home on a slightly larger 5800 sq. ft. lot, now at $2.995m.

• 113 S. Dianthus is at a similar point up on the hill, a 6250 sq. ft. lot now listed at $2.999m. It's on the west side of Dianthus, still well positioned to capture big views. (It's the source of our main pic up above.)

• 919 1st is the newest entry, a much bigger lot (8600 sq. ft.) – again at roughly the same point on the hill as the others, this one starting out at $4.5m. The views here from the north side of 1st across the decline southward are extremely compelling. The existing home (3br/2ba, 1950 sq. ft. with pool), which they insist on picturing in detail, is not quite so compelling.

• 222 N. Poinsettia is a double-wide lot (13,800 sq. ft.) not quite as high up as the others mentioned here, currently at $5.995m. This one has gotten plenty of attention at MBC previously.

So the dirt options, all with views, all near each other, are at about $1.5m, $3m, $4.5m and $6m, those prices aligning fairly well with the lot sizes and locations. Or so it would seem. With no spec builders and fewer dream-home dreamers these days, the dirt market appears confused for now as options grow.

Low on the Hill

One way the game could change a bit here in 2009 would be if more listings started out aggressively priced.

"Aggressive," in this case, meaning priced fairly low for what they offer, and not the somewhat rarer form you'll hear about, which equates roughly to "overpriced and insistent that buyers recognize what a great opportunity they're getting."

Just last week MBC pointed to one example of an aggressively priced listing that went quickly, 405 21st, which started out with a nice location advantage and was priced near the low end of Sand Section listings at $1.149m.

Now the Hill Section has a new entry that looks like a lot for the money, a very big (4br/4ba, 4500 sq. ft.) ocean-view home quite near downtown that starts at $2.199m. It's 620 9th. (Click for more pics & details via Redfin.)

We haven't seen the home yet, though we note that it's open Sunday 3-5pm.

The pics suggest that you've got an 80s/90s remodel to contend with, or update, but some nice Spanish flourishes here and there.

The more we see, the more we think: Hey, $2m or so for a big ocean-view home in the Hills? Kinda sweet.

Views. Short walk to downtown and the beach. Livable as-is, but customizable. OK, then.

That price works out to $488/PSF to start, and that's officially the lowest in the whole of the Hill Section. A sale at comparably sized 953 9th (5br/4ba, 4100 sq. ft.) in August 2008 came in at $561/PSF.

There are just two roughly comparable listings right now (click addresses for more pics & details via Redfin):

• 1042 2nd, much newer (2003 build) and about the same size (5br/4ba, 4425 sq. ft.), now at $2.195m (began at $2.395m in July 2008); and

• 755 11th, "The Georgian," offering a bunch of land, including sports court, and 5br/5ba, 5200 sq. ft., newly reduced this week to $2.799m ($537/PSF).

The nearly identically priced home up on 2nd directly abuts a commercial building on Sepulveda, a significant liability. And there are no views. But it's nice once you're settled inside.

The Georgian keeps drawing interest, but just can't seem to get a deal done. It's got a dated/opportunity-to-update issue, like the 9th St. house, but it will find the right balance soon.

In any market conditions, homes will sell. The ones that discard all pretense and put themselves out as relative bargains are going to have the best chance, you'd imagine. Is 620 9th aggressive enough?

What the City Expects

In comments at MBC, some readers have pointed to the City of Manhattan Beach's budget impacts and projections related to housing sales and construction activity.

We fetched a Jan. 27 staff report by the city Director of Finance (click here to download the PDF) and culled out some figures related to local RE. Keep in mind, budget years start July 1; the figures below are dated by the second half of each budget year – i.e., 2008 = FY 2007-08.


Property Tax Revenue

2008: $18.6m
2009: $19.7m (mid-year projection, +$400k/+2% over budget)
2010: $20.3m (projected)

Overall that's good news for the city, for the time being. But the report does note that next year's expected growth rate in property tax revenues of 2.5-3% is well off the 7.7% from the current year. And of course, those revenues have rocketed forward at even higher annual rates throughout the first part of the decade.

Down the road, who knows. The county assessor is automatically re-assessing lots of recent purchases, and plenty of MB homeowners are taking it upon themselves to seek revaluations of their homes. Could property tax revenues drop year-over-year soon?


Real Estate Transfer Tax

2008: $450k
2009: $550k (budget)
2009: $244k (midyr. proj.)
2010: $230k (prelim. estimate)

Here is where the slowdown in home sales and prices is most evident. A 55% shortfall against the budget is a shocker, but the actual financial impact on the city is comparatively minor. From the report:

[S]ingle family residential sales volume has dropped dramatically, and with that, prices. In 2007, sales volume for residential properties was 391 units, with a median price of $1,628,500. Our most recent report indicated expected sales volume for 2008 of 300 units (a decrease of 23%), with a median price of $1,540,000 (a 5.4% decrease).

It looks like when the city budget was developed, someone thought we'd never see a slower sales pace than 2007. After all, it was the worst on record for 20+ years. (See MBC's stories, "Slower, Slower, Slower" and "Maybe It Can't Get Worse," both covering sales in 2007.)

But sales actually dove further, making 2008 a new low. (See MBC's story on the first 8 months of 2008, "Turns Out '08 Got Worse," and Kaye Thomas' post with sales from 2006-08, showing SFR sales dropping from 334 in 2007 to 243 in 2008 (-27%), based on MLS data.)

They're trying not to make that mistake again. The new 2010 projection assumes flat sales in 2009 (300 units, by the city's measure) and a drop in the median price to $1.4m.

That's the city projecting a 9% drop in the median price this year. (Get a rope!)


Building Permits & Plan Check Fees

The slowdown in new construction and remodels hits the city two ways, in reduced income from permits and plan check fees.

Building Permits

2008: $817k
2009: $785k (budgeted)
2009: $700k (midyr. proj.)
2010: $650k (prelim. est.)

Plan Check Fees

2008: $763k
2009: $735k (budgeted)
2009: $583k (midyr. proj.)
2010: $500k (prelim. est.)

Both areas were hit harder than expected. From the report:

While we conservatively budgeted this year's revenues given last year's declines, we expect them to still fall short of budget by a combined $237,200, or 15%...

[R]esidential demolition permits, which a few years ago averaged 15 per month, has dropped to just one in December 2008. This statistic serves as a leading indicator of future residential construction and permits/planning fees.

We will note here that the city can cut costs for plan checks, and has done so, to reflect the reduced activity.


The Big Picture

The city is still working on budgeting issues; this is a mid-fiscal-year report we're working from. But two big-picture figures stand out:

Overall budget shortfall (FY 2008-09): $1.68m (-3.2% of total budget, $51.3m)

Projected budget shortfall (FY 2009-10): $3.6m (-6.7% of total budget, $53.5m)

When these projections were prepared, it's doubtful the fiscal planners foresaw the rush of quick going-out-of-business sales all over downtown. They guessed sales tax revenues would be down next year by 5%. They also note that 50% of MB's sales tax revenue ($7.4m projected next year) comes from 15 businesses and therefore "remains sensitive."

Among the city's many needs, the school district would sure like to see the city helping out, as it did with a one-time cash injection recently. But the city needs help, first – chops and revenue enhancements, dipping into reserves. And then, presumably, we can talk about the kids.

Errol's Is Back

Last Spring a property once owned by Errol Flynn hit the market at $6.5m.

3421 Manhattan Ave. is back now, about $1m lighter at $5.650m.

The home is an inspired, high-end Art Deco rebuild – there's nary a stick left on the property that Errol would have touched, best we can tell. Still, the home has had arguably the best run of free press of any local listing.

Last Summer, it was a "Home of the Week" feature in the LA Times' now-departed Real Estate section.

Before that, it was featured in the debut issue of the local glossy Luxury Life & Style magazine. (Click here to download the story in PDF form.)

And along the way, the property has found its way onto a local real estate blog a few times.

We just looked back at one of those briefs from MBC and saw that a commenter ran a little math and estimated the value last June at between $4.5m-$5.3m. It's hard to say with these custom properties, of course, but that wasn't so far below this week's new launch price.

Another one to watch...

Not Worth Their '05 Prices?

It's hard to pinpoint where the local RE market is these days, with so few sales to really give good trend indicators.

The tea leaves we must read, more and more, are list prices, ask/close spreads and a few same-house sales.

Look around town, and you may be surprised to see several listings near or below their 2005 acquisition prices...


No Markup Now

• 444 33rd Place (2br/1ba, 900 sq. ft.) appears to have been bought and sold twice in 2005, so pick your price as a starting point: $1.160m in May or $1.260m in October 2005. (A nice, easy hundie for the quick-flipper there.) There's been no enthusiasm for the property, with its wide, but shallow lot on an alley, in 2008-09. After 10 solid months on the market, it's now the cheapest offering in the Sand at $959k, $200k-$300k below the '05 prices.

• 636 29th offers 4br/4ba and 3250 sq. ft. for under $2m, which, MBC noted the other day, is going to draw serious interest from people looking now.
  

Location is on one of the better streets in the northwestern part of the Trees. But this one began recently $100k below the Sept. 2005 acquisition price – $1.890m then, $1.789m now.

• 3313 Pine (5br/4ba, 3300 sq. ft.) was a sharp new home by a noted builder back in June 2003, when it sold for $1.64m. As a measure of the nitro-fueled trajectory of the local market shortly thereafter, an investor took it for much more, $2.265m, in December 2005, after a bidding war, we're told. That was a markup of +$625k/+38% over 2 and a half years.

But 3313 Pine began early in 2009 a step down from those heights at $2.175m, and there's this problem – brand-new construction is going for less these days. Heck, two doors up the street is newbie 3404 Pine, same size, now at $1.975m with offers of builder financing to boot.

• 407 Larsson is a large (6br/6ba, 5000 sq. ft.), custom Hill Section home with a real yard. Very nice, but suffering from a location that, while it's on the "right" side of Larsson (not backing onto Sepulveda), just isn't a dreamy, Hill Section kind of spot.

Sellers paid $2.980m in Nov. 2005 and hoped for a little bump to $3.150m when the listing began in Sept. 2008. But it's flat now at $2.999m, and we'll bet against this one holding steady if there's going to be a sale.

Slipping Closer to 2005 Prices

• 325 1st is a South End (Sand Section) remodel – well, major overhaul, very sharp – that was purchased for $1.617m in Dec. 2005, and three years later is lingering at $1.699m.

The home, offering 3br/4ba and 2100 sq. ft. on a half-lot, does have a moderate location issue – one of the busier streets down south, but that's a relative statement.

It's a bit hard to believe that a clunky remodel down the block at 437 1st (4br/3ba, 2600 sq. ft.) went for $1.610m last June.

• 1821 Palm (4br/4ba, 3525 sq. ft.) is more than 18 years old, so you may wonder why it's at $2.395m, when the newbies are all fighting for the low ground, from $1.9m-$2.1m.
  

Part of the answer is the 2005 remodel, part of it is location. Oh, and part of it is the fact that the owners paid $2.250m in 2005.

• 209 16th is a duplex that's updated in parts and in others, well, not. (Don't miss the turquoise toilet.) As locations go, it's hard to beat west of Highland on 16th. In March 2005, the purchase price of $2.575m must have looked big, but also with a big upside. The current markup to $2.699m is not so wild-eyed, and don't forget, the market said "no" to that price last year when the sellers tried, before going off market for the holidays.

A Few That Broke the Ice

We looked back at recent sales, and quickly saw 3 trailblazers that showed that some 2005/06 prices had not held up within the last 6 months:

• 794 27th, the Asian-inspired modern at 27th/Pacific, sold for much too much at $2.5m in May 2006, and unloaded for $1.950 in August 2008. (See "Close the Books on 794 27th.")

• 532 6th is a South End walkstreet modern (at Valley) that was acquired for $1.818m in March 2005, and sold essentially flat for $1.845m in October 2008. (See "Best Deals of 2008 – Sand Section.")

• 1725 Pine, an attractive French-country-inspired remodel (4br/3ba, 1725 sq. ft.) never hit the MLS, but it sold in December for $1.512m, mostly off the radar, for about $50k less than the Sept. 2005 acquisition price.
  

Open Forum (2/16-2/22)

This week should bring us the new president's answer to the housing crisis.

He's planning a press conference Wednesday in Phoenix, of all places. (Hence our pic.)

It's one of the ground zeroes of the housing bubble, and a city whose name will, at the very least, tempt a speechwriter to prophesy the end of the housing bust.

More on all of that as the details flow in, but it sounds like the core goal hasn't changed much:

Then-Sen. Obama, in an Oct. 2008 presidential debate: "we've got to stabilize housing prices" and "help ordinary families be able to stay in their homes, make sure that they can pay their bills."

Senior presidential adviser David Axelrod, on "Fox News Sunday" (via this WSJ article): the plan will help in "raising home values that have been plummeting" and, according to the WSJ, would "reduce Americans' payments on troubled mortgages" – possibly limiting housing payments in reworked mortgages to 31% of pretax income.

Helpful hint: If you are not yet in default on your mortgage, get in default ASAP so you can qualify for some help.

MBC expects to be every bit as skeptical of this plan as we were of the other guy's plan last Fall. (See "Buy Up the Bad," which assessed a proposal to have the government buy mortgages en masse and shed any inconvenient principal amounts above a home's current value.) As we said then:

Intervening to prevent market forces from having their way with home prices has a great appeal, at least in the final 4 weeks before an election. But does anyone pushing these ideas really think the declines can be halted?

We're thinking the answer to that hypothetical question is a qualified "yes." They do.

–––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––––

As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. (You don't have to have an opinion on blogs.) And keep it clean.

Sunday Opens (2/15)

Flowers, dinner, music – now it's time to find your Valentine a big, beautiful house. Your options keep growing.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

And, by all means, if you do visit one of our recommended opens, tell the agent MBC sent you.


Hill Section

1019 Duncan joins a growing glut of new construction in the Hill Section, one of 7 newbies on offer and one of 17 homes priced at $3m or above. Great news for buyer selection, less so for the supply side.

The home offers 4br/5ba and 4800 sq. ft., fit onto a smallish 5000 sq. ft. lot. Custom design, ocean views, the increasingly common tiered screening room – it hits all the basic notes nicely. After a start at $3.899m in late January, the price quickly adjusted to the current $3.699m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

And while it's not open this weekend, and probably never will be open to John Q. Public, we're just taking this first chance to point out that 218 Anderson appears to be all that a $10m home ought to be. Wow.


Sand Section

473 29th is a newer (2003) home that maxes out square footage (5br/5ba, 4150 sq. ft.) and sports a quiet end-of-block location up on the plateau.

Readers know that we dread the stapled-on stone that graces the exterior, but the interior spaces are sunny and just a bit different. Give it a look.

We note that the sellers start with a $1m+ markup over the Aug. 2003 acquisition price of $1.570m – the listing begins at $2.699m, and $648/PSF.

An interesting comparison – a smaller home around the corner, 465 30th (5br/5ba, 3400 sq. ft.) is currently up at $1.999m and has had no takers for some time at that price, which works out to $595/PSF. Curiously, that one was acquired for a similar price, $1.522m, in the same early-bubble-era year (Oct. 2003).

473 29th is open Sun. 1-4pm.

528 2nd is much further south, a bit near Valley but not suffering much for it. The 5br/4ba, 3050 sq. ft. home is about 10 years old, nicely updated in key areas. Even the little patio out back is a welcome bonus in this South End neighborhood. Starts at $2.575m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

636 29th was built in 1990 but updated, in parts, more recently. (There are still some full-on glass-block windows that can only be viewed as liabilities.)

The home offers 4br/4ba and 3250 sq. ft. for under $2m, and that location alone moves it near the top of any Tree Section shopper's list.

Pricewise, the market said that this one had appreciated nearly $800k between 2002-2005, the previous 2 sales – the last at $1.890m. The sellers now concede that some of that was a mirage. They offer it at $100k less than the Sept. 2005 acquisition price – it begins at $1.789m. Open early Sun., 1-3pm.

Two listings on 13th St., technically the Trees, in the Martyrs neighborhood near downtown, will compete for your attention: 520 13th at $1.499m and 636 13th at $1.599m. Both are open Sun. 1-4pm.


ADDRESS CORRECTIONS DEPT.

Buyers could be misdirected on Sunday by a couple of errors apparently made by the same office, so we'll try to step in to help.

First, despite what you might have seen in Saturday's LA Times "Homes" section (page JS6), there is not a listing at 444 36th St. in Hermosa Beach that's open Sunday. Savvy readers know Hermosa ends at 35th. The open house is actually in El Norte, MB, not the South End area near Robinson. If you're interested, it's open Sun. 1-4pm.

Second, that's not 2409 Palm where there's a new home open Sunday, as the Beach Reporter reads. Please don't bother the residents at 2409. It's actually 2509 Palm, the failed auction house, open Sunday 1-4pm.

Now, if your blog author goes sniffing around asking questions, they're going to put him on candid camera and write memos about it, but if MBC readers drop by, someone might want to ask what, exactly, the seller is thinking. The home is currently at $1.799m, well above its auction start price ($1.499m) and last public offer price ($1.699m). Really?

Nice Week for a Mention

Just a few days after cutting $1.3m more off its price, 3404 The Strand has a buyer. (At this writing, the Redfin link still works.)

As you'll recall from "Strand Living Gets Cheaper," the listing began at $7.8m in November 2008 and was down $2.3m overall by this week to $5.5m.

That sent the right message, and there was a knock at the door.

So that's a couple of properties that went into escrow this week shortly after prominent mention at MBC. Of course, they didn't sell strictly because they were featured here, but then, it didn't hurt, either.

Now, about 815 2nd...

That Was Quick

There are ways to sell your house quickly, even today.

First, start with a good location. (Sometimes clichés are quite true.)

Next, don't overprice.

Once and so often, someone gets it smashingly right. Take 405 21st in the Sand Section as an example. (At this writing, the Redfin link still works, but it probably won't for long.)

You can sell in a week, as 21st just did, if you have a little house for about $1m that offers ocean views and proximity to the beach, parks and downtown.

MBC featured 405 21st this past weekend in our "Sunday Opens (2/8)" and noted that the 3br/2ba, 1450 sq. ft. remodel "offers more than you might expect," given the price. (Some readers who walked through also reported back in comments on that story.) MBC also said:

There are compromises here, to be sure, including no yard on the half-lot, and we don't love everything about the remodel. But for $1.149m the whole package compares well against much of the lower-end Sand Section inventory up to $1.4m.

Memo to the rest of the Sand Section inventory below $1.4m: You've got a new comp coming. Take note.

First Hill Newbie to Go Short

It seems like a price cut of $1m or so is no longer big news, particularly in the Hill Section, where now 7 separate active listings have chopped that much.

What is new about 815 2nd is that it's new construction that is now officially a short sale – a first for new construction in the Hills in recent years.

So pay a little attention to this week's price cut ($3.875m to $3.799m), which brings it down $996k (-21%) from the start at $4.795m.

Pay more attention this: The main loan (1st TD) is $2.9m. The second loan, at about $1.2m, is what is going to go short to make a deal to come together.

In this case, the note holder on the 2nd is savvy to what's going on these days and knows it's time to take whatever they can get. They've approved cutting into bone to make a deal. The new price must be viewed as just a starting point.

Of course, the first short newbie in the Hills is a sign of the times. Some other new construction in town facing some form of distress (click any address for more pics & details via Redfin):

• 560 36th, a large (4br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.), sharply modern home, has had a default notice filed against it. This one began at $2.999m last March and had cut to $2.199m by last August, quick movement MBC noted in "Not Holding Out." One buyer moved in, but the escrow failed, and the listing is still lingering. The agent declined to discuss the NOD with MBC, but did say that the sellers will look at all "reasonable" offers.

• The failed auction home at 2509 Palm, taken by the bank at the dawn of 2009 for $1.5m (against $1.8m owed), was promptly returned to market at $1.799m. We're now getting information that a buyer did grab it from the bank in late January, evidently to flip. Sorry, but we can't explain why the current price is $300k above the auction start price and $100k more than the last list price before the bank took title.

• 617 6th (5br/5ba, 5725 sq. ft.) back in the Hills, has more than a "distressed beam ceiling" going on – a default notice was filed on $3m+ worth of loans last September. Here, the lot was acquired for $2.250m in Feb. 2006, the listing began at $5.950m last March, and it's now at $4.995m.

Back to 815 2nd for a moment. We'll dial back to our pricing poll on this property from April 2008.

MBC readers considered the price at the time, $4.495m, to be very optimistic.

As our graph shows (click to enlarge), a plurality (37%) settled on $3.75m-$4m. But that's not going to happen now, either.

The most bearish opinions last Spring belonged to the 29% who said the sale price would be below $3.75m. Quite a few said it'd be below $3.5m. (See our poll results story for more.)

Reality has been harsher over these many months than a lot of people could imagine. And here we go with 815 2nd poised to make the bears look very right on this one.

Let's wrap up here with an intriguing takeaway.

They're not building new houses anymore. Builders aren't buying lots, banks aren't playing and the new construction you see now is increasingly late-stage speckies or owner-initiated personal projects.

It's the end of an era, or, more properly, a cycle.

New spec homes, while many are certainly lingering, are also becoming scarce. If you want new, your options are actually going to contract in 2009-2010. That's something to watch over the next 2-5 years in MB.

Recent Action

Almost 6 weeks into 2009, it's not exactly busy.

Inventory is growing faster than buyer interest right now. We passed 130 SFRs west of Hwy. 1 this week before a couple of cancellations.

Let's take a look at which listings have gone into escrow in 2009.


Cheapies

2500 Oak (3br/2ba, 1350 sq. ft.) offers one of the worst locations west of Sepulveda, but the last price of $789k was enough to deal with that liability.

505 Anderson in the Hills (4br/2ba, 1850 sq. ft.) needed everything – some were of the opinion it was a teardown. Very aggressively priced at $799k, it went quickly with multiple offers.

3404 Alma in the Sand (3br/2ba, 1300 sq. ft.), a nice remodel, has been around since last Summer with one deal gone bad, last at $1.069m.

612 11th in the Hills (4br/2ba, 1550 sq. ft.) is the odd "flag lot" home purchased for $1.275m in a bidding war in May 2007 (see "Maybe They Lost the War"), last priced at a loss at $1.199m.

129 1st in the South End Sand (2br/2ba, 1300 sq. ft.) offers 2 masters, nice updates, and a west-of-Manhattan-Ave. location – listed for $1.199m and went quickly.

539 23rd may not belong on this list – it's small for 4br/2ba and 1900 sq. ft. and quite dated. Lot values in the gaslight area here seems strong, but we'll have to see how close to the last price of $1.395m the sellers got.


One Short, One Flat

1608 Poinsettia (5br/4ba, 3625 sq. ft.), called "[p]robably the best deal on the market in the trees" by the agent, has found its second buyer while listed as a short sale (first buyer walked), last at $1.599m.

340 7th will get someone into a big home (4br/4ba, 3850 sq. ft.) on a flat walkstreet famous (infamous?) for the kids' toys up and down the block. (It's one of MBC's "Great Streets.") This home was purchased for $2m in June 2005 and just closed for $2.025m three and a half years later.


Choice Dirt

208 The Strand and 204 The Strand have both found a buyer. 204 was on the MLS a while (and can still be found in a search) while 208 popped up more as a formality, in escrow. Both had been listed at $6.8m.


Newbies

2829 Valley (5br/4ba, 3425 sq. ft.) made a deal in January and has already closed. This one, a pretty nice, unique home with that Valley liability, began in Aug. 2008 a nick below $2m, at $1.989m, as if to acknowledge the softening market. It sold for $1.650m (-$339k/-17%), a somewhat greater acknowledgment.

1901 Walnut (5br/6ba, 3125 sq. ft.) is probably the best home on this list, new and in a nice location, taking great advantage of a sunny corner lot. It hung around almost 5 months – nearly the minimum these days for new construction – starting at $2.449m and last at $2.289m.

We'll also note that 757 30th, long rumored to be in escrow, got posted as such and then switched back to active during this period.


So that's 12 sales (new escrows) so far this year, of which 6 we categorized as "cheap" (a relative term), 2 were short or flat, 2 were high-end Strand lot sales and 2 were new homes.

We don't expect the pace of 2 sales per week to persist. Get this rain and cold and this financial crisis behind us, and the buyers will be out again, right?

A Long, Strange Listing

Could it really be?

Yes, 3309 Pacific (click for details via Redfin) has been for sale now in parts of each of the past 5 years, 2005-2009.

It's the beacon in the fog. The Rock of Gibraltar. Old Faithful.

3309 Pacific is, quite simply, always for sale.

Wonder why?

Have you seen 3309 Pacific? We'd bet a large segment of MBC's readership has seen it, based on market exposure time alone.

If you have, you know that this home is pretty large (4br/5ba, 3500 sq. ft.) and a bit off-kilter. (The slanty photo from the listing seems apropos.)

Memories are hazy now, but here's what we recall: Some huge spaces. Dark in parts. Kitchen surprisingly small, but updated between 1984-1994, roughly. Vast split-level master. Old marble. Cool hideaway bonus room/office on top of the A-frame, maybe illegal, with treetop views. Split-level back yard overwhelmed by cinderblock. Very strange first-floor nanny/guest quarters near driveway with original bath and glass doors opening to street.

Your recollections may match, or differ. (Please share.)

Around about Summer 2005, 3309 Pacific went up for the first time. (That we noticed.) Your blog author's parchment-paper records from way back then show a start price of $1.799m. Weathering may have smeared the ink a bit, but that sure looks like a "799."

No one was having it at that price.

'05 rolled into '06. The price was down to $1.599m, and the property even posted as pending. But the escrow failed, and it seems the property rented out.

Come Fall 2007, the home was offered again at $1.590m. No takers.

The current version of the listing started up in early 2008. That's '08. And the price was $1.489m. The price glided softly to $1.399m in July '08, and $1.375m by September.

Despite that relatively recent activity, MBC was thinking of writing off this listing as deadwood. Once and so often there's a weird artifact of past MLS data entry that just hangs around. The home is not for sale, or maybe it never was, or maybe it only ever existed in our imaginations anyway. (The MLS is only as good as the data agents input.)

Lo, this week, 3309 Pacific pinged again. A little cut to $1.349m showed signs of life.

And, once again, this listing showed its uncanny, long-term knack for being priced just a step behind the market.

There may be a silver lining. This listing, which we're all guilty of treating as wallpaper for the past 4 years, does have some new language:

Highly motivated seller wants to talk to you!

Yes, we'd imagine the motivation could grow, over time, as a rolling stone gathers moss. Er, as a snowball... well, pardon our metaphors, you get the picture.

It looks like 3309 Pacific might be ready to end the trip and hand over the keys. Now, where did you park the down payment?

Strand Living Gets Cheaper

Perhaps the biggest puzzle among Strand listings is 3404 The Strand, because there's a huge two-house structure (8br/6ba, 5200 sq. ft.) there, but one that needs work to suit a multi-million-dollar buyer.

The 3500 sq. ft. lot is attractive, but, as we are asking more and more these days, the question is whether someone is supposed to be buying the dirt or the house.

As we said back in November, when this one began at $7.8m (see "And Then There Were 4"):

Here's a home with individuality and character that deserves some love. Update it, and you have a true MB home, standing apart from the encroaching ultramoderns and Mediterraneans and all that.

The slow market for higher-priced listings in town is taking its toll quickly on this northern part of the Strand.

After a new cut Monday, it's now priced at $5.5m, fully $2.3m (almost 30%) off the start price. The listing also now screams, "Priced to sell!!!" And there's this:

Take advantage of the sheer size & possibilities offered. Remodel? Rent? Family Compound? A unique configuration rarely available!... Owner may consider financing.

So it looks like 3404 is serious, if grasping a bit.

Another northern-area offering from late last year, 3216 The Strand, quit after just a month on market, dropping mildly from $7.3m to $7.0m in the interval. (We believe that was a 2700 sq. ft. lot, smaller than 3404.) If we see 3216 come back this year, we'll expect some real price impact from 3404.

As to lot sales down on the South End, things look sunnier... 208 The Strand popped up at $6.8m recently and went quickly into escrow.

Open Forum (2/9-2/15)

In the interest of making sure we've got a new Open Forum for the week, we'll keep this launch brief.

The Open Forum is for new clips, off-topic questions and conversations.

This forum exists so you don't have to use comments on an unrelated story to talk about the issues of the day.

We do ask you to keep it clean.

Also, consider shuttling over, east of Sepulveda, to the East MB Bucket (7), which was lively for a few days after it got under way.

Sunday Opens (2/8)

Sometimes our weekend open-house showcase skews a little too much toward the "wow" properties priced up in the stratosphere. What can we say – we know lots of folks who love to see those houses even if they're not in the market.

But this week we'll flip the orientation around here and start each section off with a modestly priced home or two. We're mixing up some older and some newer inventory to make it work.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

And, by all means, if you do visit one of our recommended opens, tell the agent MBC sent you.


Hill Section

516 N. Ardmore is a little cottage among giants. You get 2br/2ba and almost 1150 sq. ft. with a little yard on a smallish 4000 sq. ft. lot for $1.045m.

This one now lives in the shadow of a fairly new double-lot home to the east and a ginormous brand-new home to the south, 511 Pacific, which we raved about last week (see "Super Saturday for Opens"), and which is also open again this weekend.

Ardmore will sell this year, we think, whatever it takes. It's already down from $1.5m last July (-$455k/-30%) as the seller seeks the right balance. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

1011 Pacific is part of a growing club of $5m+ estates in the Hills that have been lingering. In this case, 5 months have passed since the large (6br/5ba, 6035 sq. ft.) home began at $5.995m, and it's now at $5.495m. If this one was publicly open previously, we missed it.

Location is a bit of a challenge, as Pacific near MBB here is a bit busy, but there are high-on-the-hill ocean views out the back. The home is plenty sumptuous, only 4+ years old.

The acquisition price, new in Aug. 2004, mid-bubble: $3.975m. Current price is 38% up from there. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

If you're at Pacific, take a quick cut west on 11th to see 755 11th, "The Georgian," that has been around since last June with occasional interest and even one escrow (which didn't pan out). The home is plenty large at 5br/5ba and 5200 sq. ft. The oversize lot features a cool, large sports court. The home needs some updates. Really. Now at $2.949m. Open 1-4pm.


Sand Section

405 21st offers more than you might expect from a little house near $1m. The bones are that of a 1960s beach box like you see all over, but the updates on this 3br/2ba, 1450 sq. ft. home give it a much more contemporary feel.

Location offers nice benefits: ocean views from the top of 21st, beach proximity (two blocks west) and Tree Section proximity to the east – most notably Live Oak park, just a skip down the hill. And you're near downtown, too.

There are compromises here, to be sure, including no yard on the half-lot, and we don't love everything about the remodel. But for $1.149m the whole package compares well against much of the lower-end Sand Section inventory up to $1.4m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

325 1st is a different kind of 60s beach box (3br/4ba, 2075 sq. ft.) that was taken down to studs in a thorough remodel about 3 years ago. (To see its unimproved twin, look just one door west.) Purchased for $1.617m in Dec. 2005, it's now at $1.749m after 3 months without action, and publicly open for the first time. Open Sun. 1-4pm

228 20th (pictured) is a 10-year-old, maxed-out (5br/5ba, 4150 sq. ft.) midtown walkstreet home with the expected big ocean views.

New homes just a stone's throw from here are fetching high-$4m to $5m or more; here the start is $3.899m. The listing began late last year, and this is the first public open. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

312 20th is just across Highland, about the same size and age as 228 20th, but now priced at $3.399m after launching last Summer. Open Sun. 2-4:30pm.


Tree Section

There was a time, say about 2 years ago, when a delightfully updated, not-so-huge home on Oak could fetch $1.385m.

Specifically, that's what 2613 Oak sold for in March 2007 – pretty serious money for 4br/2ba and almost 1800 sq. ft.

The sellers acknowledge that it's not there anymore. They're starting at $1.349m, just a little step down from the acquisition price.

Interestingly, there isn't much comparable in the Trees right now – closest examples are, or should be, at $1.5m or so. Oak inevitably serves as some kind of bellwether if it sells. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

864 18th is the second new home recently within a few blocks of each other in the Trees by a builder who is mostly known around MB for spare, pre-fab designs that often rated a "C" grade, if that.

Suddenly he's gone to another extreme, pouring on the extras, flourishes and stylings. The listing for 864 18th extols its "Tuscan, Provencal and Santa Barbara themes," along with Venetian plaster and Brazilian hardwoods.

It's busy, busy, busy and we're not sure it all fits.

There's got to be a lot of living space, but the listing doesn't provide square footage yet (just 6br/8ba), but we'd expect 5500-6250 sq. ft. before we get that detail, given the 7200 sq. ft. lot size.

Start price of $6m is really pushing things here as we find ourselves in early 2009.

The priciest Tree Section sale in 2008 was nearby, at 850 18th, a fairly new home boasting 6br/6ba, 5950 sq. ft. on an 8000 sq. ft. lot that sold for $4.4m. And that place had class, class, class. (See "High/Low Prices for 2008.")

864 18th is open Sun. 2-4pm.