East MB Bucket (8)

The cheapest SFR in all of Manhattan Beach is in East MB:

1407 12th (3br/1ba, 1300 sq. ft.), offered at just $600k, is a well-worn 1950s-era cottage with bonus shed space in the back yard.

Lot is a decent size at 5,250 sq. ft., but most neighbors are condo/apt. buildings. Proximity to school & parks is pretty nice if you don't mind the neighborhood.

The listing for 12th began as a FSBO on owners.com (click for listing) at $1m, but time has trimmed that asking price.

It's now posted as a "probate short sale, subject to court confirmation." That's a double, maybe triple-whammy of hassles for deal-seekers. But look at that price!

A short hop across MBB, but a world away, is 1501 9th, a very big (6br/10ba, 8550 sq. ft.) new home on a rare double corner lot. It starts at $6.5m, which might be a reach, or may make this one of the better luxury buys in the LA area. Depends on your perspective.

This is the sort of property you expect in the Hill Section or some of the LA area's ritzier neighborhoods, with a courtyard design, a covered outdoor living room and kitchen plus all the big stuff inside – tiered home theater, huge catering kitchen, all kinds of extra entertaining spaces and a luxe home office for the Master of the Universe who'd prefer to skip the commute.

The owner, a prominent local RE agent, built the home custom for himself, but will let it go for the right price. Sure, people kid about the guy, but in this market he did just sell the first new home to appear on The Strand in some time to an all-cash buyer, just as an example, so he's doing something right.

Here's a thought – Get your price: win. Don't sell, stay at 1501 9th: win.

Wow. Guy's got it wired either way.

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Please use this "East MB Bucket" thread to post information about all listings and goings-on east of Sepulveda, data, critiques, news, etc.

Deals or No Deals?

Today we'll take a different approach to a pricing poll on several listings in the Tree Section.

Which, if any, of the current crop near $1.5m is a "deal?"

This is entirely subjective, of course. We'd define a "deal" roughly as a good price in today's market for what you get, not looking too far ahead as to whether that price will stand up next year or the year after.

Almost all of these properties have tradeoffs to consider, mainly suboptimal locations. But there are pluses, too, and they will gradually overtake the downsides as the prices get close to right.

Please research the properties listed here and vote in the poll. Support your position in the comments section here. We'll close the poll Thurs. night at 8pm.

Here are 6 properties currently listed within $50k of $1.5m. Are any of them "deals," or very close to being deals? You can vote for more than one.

• 1816 Oak (4br/4ba, 3300 sq. ft.) has been a quiet presence in the local market for almost 90 days. It's part of a crop of similar homes put down in the late 80s/early 90s. We don't know how well updated. Location is on the "wrong" side of Oak, backing up to the hotel. Currently at $1.449m, just $439/PSF.

• 1813 Pacific (4br/3ba, 2125 sq. ft.) is on its second round this year, having tried at $1.599m last year. It's a recently remodeled home with a very open first floor, attractive and sunny back yard and a bonus room out back as well. Now at $1.469m, and $689/PSF.

• 1800 Poinsettia (3br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft.) was purchased in June 2004 for $1.320m. It's delightful, but the layout is imperfect and just 3br doesn't work for everyone. Just 2 doors down, much bigger 1728 Poinsettia (4br/3ba, almost 3500 sq. ft., nicely updated) sold in late February for $1.6m, just $459/PSF. The listing for 1800 Poinsettia began in early January at $1.579m, and has now trimmed to $1.499m, and $649/PSF.

• 2300 Poinsettia (4br/3ba, 2050 sq. ft.) has been mentioned a few times at MBC, most recently in "Still Slow on Poinettia," which noted the home's "crisp and thorough update" since it was last on market in 2006. Purchased in Jan. 2007 for $1.269m, now at $1.499m, a price MBC said "may be getting toward where it needs to be." Price is high by the square foot, though, at $739/PSF.

• 3210 Ardmore is a large (5br/4ba, 3500 sq. ft.), late-90s home touted as a "French Manor Estate." Large lot (6400 sq. ft.) in a triangle shape that unfortunately abuts Ardmore, but with a back yard that's nicely landscaped to create a hideaway. A comfy home that began in October at $1.949m and is down now to $1.525m, and $437/PSF.
  

• 646 Rosecrans (4br/3ba, 2550 sq. ft.) is brand new – yes, a new home at $1.525m. Surprising. It is about 700 sq. ft. smaller than typical spec newbies in town, and the lot size (3650 sq. ft.) is 20% smaller, too, than you usually see. We haven't seen it, having really no interest in Rosecrans properties, but someone will get over that hump. Started at $1.9m last Summer, now at $598/PSF, near where bigger newbies are selling.

Again, remember you can vote for more than one property that you might find to be a good deal right now, all things considered.

If absolutely none of these homes seems priced competitively, there's an option to vote "No Deals."

Sunday Opens in the Trees (3/29)

The action is in the Trees on Sunday, with more new offerings and a different mix than you'll see in other parts of town.

Among the listings MBC's highlighting, we're pointing you to two groups of 3 – a set of remodels near $1.1m-$1.2m, and three homes right next door to each other on little-known Fisher Ave. near downtown.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes – or any open houses – to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Tree Section

We'll start with what appears to be another open house at a lot sale: 2300 Laurel.

You don't need to see the house, but it is nice to truck down to the location and get a sense of it. It's a quiet pocket of the Tree Section. (Click pic to enlarge satellite view, or see the Redfin listing.)

This standard size lot (4800 sq. ft.) is offered for $1.399m. Worth noting: A 25% larger lot at a comparable location, 1900 Laurel, closed in January for $1.250m.

On a different part of the spectrum is 647 15th, a 3-year old Craftsman directly across from American Martyrs Church.

Big but not huge (4br/4ba, 3670 sq. ft.) on an average-size lot (5000 sq. ft., not the 6250 that you see nearby).

This one was purchased for $2.8m in May 2006 and begins now at $2.999m. Open Sun. 2-5pm.

And now 3 smallish remodels that were all mentioned the other day in "Flipping for Rosecrans?"

3619 Poinsettia (pictured) (3br/3ba, 1350 sq. ft.), the main home featured in that piece, is at $1.149m, after a purchase – pre-remodel – in May 2007 at $925k. Open Sun. 2-5pm.

2404 Elm (3br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft.) with some bonus square footage, priced at $1.199m. Open Sun. 3-5pm.

2613 Oak (4br/2ba, 1775 sq. ft.), purchased in late March 2007 for $1.385m, now priced below that at $1.269m. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Finally, all 3 neighboring listings on Fisher are open at once: 1204, 1208 and 1212 Fisher are open Sun. 1-4pm. In order, these are the red-brick teardown, the Fisher Queen, and the Fisher King, the royalty being huge new moderns (see "The Fisher King (& Queen)").

Hill Bits

There is not a lot going on the Hill Section, but a few tidbits hit our radar...

First, 406 Anderson is a new home (5br/4ba, 4500 sq. ft.) that has taken a steep and quick dive from its early-January start at $3.699m to $2.999m.

There can't be too much profit left in this project. The lot was acquired for $2.050m in May 2007.

Next, in recent days we saw 3 listings quit in the Hills, at least a couple needing further research/explanation:

• 1042 1st (5br/5ba, 4800 sq. ft.), a resale, expired after 6 months, trimming from $3.495m to $2.795m;

• 617 6th (5br/6ba, 5725 sq. ft.), a new home, dropped out after a year in which $1m came off the asking price, but there's no market now even at $4.995m; and

• 700 8th (5br/5ba, 4925 sq. ft.), a resale on a big ocean-view lot that was actually purchased late last year (Sept. 2008) for $6.9m, is gone for now after 4 months at $6.75m. [UPDATE: 700 8th later returned, posted in escrow, at $5.799m.]
  

Third, 620 9th (4br/4ba, 3675 sq. ft.) is back.

This big, if rehab-worthy, ocean-view home near downtown made a deal in late February, fairly quickly (8 DOM), after pricing at just $2.199m. (See "Low on the Hill" for more on the home and its aggressive pricing.)

Interesting change: In our first story, MBC referenced 620 9th's "big" 4500 sq. ft. of living space. Now the listing says 3681, to be exact.

Fourth, of course, is the fact that there's a deal on one of the brand-new MBB townhomes across from Pacific Elementary.

Imagine our surprise. Yes, yes, yes, we are surprised.

It's 1110 John, the biggest of the 3 condos at 3br/3ba, 2500 sq. ft. The home opens out onto the "live green roof deck," which is to say: a 2nd-floor concrete patio with grass.

MBC was officially skeptical of this development in "A Surprising Development on MBB," wondering who might find these townhomes preferable to the other options at the same price points.

1110 John came down a quick 15% from its (strangely precise) $1.793m start price, and was at $1.525m when a deal was made. There's more to learn here, too, as we see what the final price works out to (assuming it closes), and whether the other 2 units also sell or rent out (signs in the windows appear to offer them for lease or sale).

For now, hey, we're completely impressed that they found someone willing to sign papers. Brav-o.

Flipping for Rosecrans?

It wasn't long ago that you could buy a run-down place, redo the kitchen and baths, maybe floors and greenery, and turn a nice profit.

All those old-fashioned calculations about how you could supposedly recover just 70% of the cost of a kitchen remodel, or 50% of a bathroom remodel – there are lots of formulas out there – became irrelevant for a while. Home values were rocketing upward, and a freshly remodeled flip would get preferential treatment in the market.

Can you say multiple offers? Above asking?

There's a new listing at 3619 Poinsettia (click address for more pics & details via Redfin), at the corner with Rosecrans, that, by profile, looks a bit like one of those old-time flips.

The 1950s cottage (3br/3ba, 1350 sq. ft.) was purchased during the Spring Rally of 2007 for the surprisingly low price of $925k.

The Trees below $1m? In 2007? Well, the home was dated and had that Rosecrans liability.

It actually spent 300+ days on market before the sale in May 2007. The listing had launched in June 2006 at $1.145m.

Start price this week: $1.149m.

There's been a big remodel since 2007. From the listing:

This home is practically brand new and beautiful! All the details of this home are quality.

The 2 related questions are what the market value of a spiffy little cottage on Rosecrans is today, and whether the sellers can recover their investment – or profit – if they get out. (That start price is +$224k/+24% over acquisition.)

Buyers looking in the same general vicinity have these options (click any address for more pics & details via Redfin):

• 3600 Elm (3br/2ba, 1350 sq. ft.) at $1.095m;

• 2404 Elm (3br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft.) with some bonus square footage, priced at $1.199m;

• 1829 Poinsettia (3br/2ba, 1500 sq. ft.), at $1.199m; and

• 2613 Oak (4br/2ba, 1775 sq. ft.), now at $1.269m.

Every one of these, including 3619 Poinsettia, could go for about 10% more than $1m. Or, perhaps, none.

Of the listings referenced here, 3 of the 5 will be open this weekend, so we'll make a point of steering readers toward them for some comparisons.

We know that there are plenty of families who would like to grab hold of a respectable house in the 90266 (WOS) for a good price, but the action, even at this lower price point, has been limited recently. And that is the challenge for homes, no matter how sharp, with location issues. How well will 3619 Poinsettia and some of these other, longer-term listings weather the storm?

MB Market Update for 3/15/09, Trees

Wrapping up now with a third installment of our update for the first half of March, we'll cover the Tree Section.

To bring things up to the moment, we'll drop in some more current news as well.

Inventory for the first half of March stood at 54 SFRs in the Trees, 36 of them below $2m and 18 listings priced higher.

Here the totals are a bit higher than at the same point in 2008, and the mix has shifted more notably toward the lower end. In our March 15, 2008 update, inventory was 47, with 26 below $2m and 21 above.

New listings totaled 5 in the first part of the month:

• 2404 Elm (3br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft.) is a remodeled cottage with a finished basement, offering another 600 sq. ft. of usable space. Starts at $1.199m.

• 2404 Palm (4br/3ba, 3100 sq. ft.) is a quirky home that first hit the market in Oct. 2007, vastly overpriced at $1.895m. (See MBC's story, "Unique Ain't Always Great.") More than a year later, the start price is now $1.599m.

• 1204 Fisher is a tiny (2br/1ba, 850 sq. ft.) MB original, a 1929-vintage home built mainly of brick. It's really a lot sale by the developers who bought up 3 consecutive lots, developed 2 into the huge new moderns to the north, and realized they wouldn't be developing this one, too. Purchased for $1.7m, now offered for $1.575m.

• 700 35th (5br/4ba, 3675 sq. ft.) is a terrific, big home in the Trees with a quiet location and a big yard, which was discussed in some detail in "Back Again on 35th." Now priced below its July 2006 acquisition price ($2.482m) at $2.349m.

• 755 31st (4br/5ba, 4050 sq. ft.) is another great, warm family home, offering big entertaining spaces and big bedrooms. The listing notes another benefit of the location: the alley out back is a cul-de-sac, creating a protected play area for kids – nice bonus. Starts at $2.450m.

Since our 3/1-3/15 window closed, we've seen only 2 new listings pop up in the Trees:

• 1828 Walnut (4br/2ba, 1400 sq. ft.), on the corner with 19th, a self-described "fixer" that needs TLC and "vision." So it's something more than dirt starting at $975k.

• 1817 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3320 sq. ft.) is a newer (2005) home that's priced below acquisition – $1.925m in April 2005, now: $1.799. No question, this one has generated some enthusiasm in its first few days.

We saw just 2 sales (new escrows) in the Trees during the first half of the month:

• 3505 Pacific (4br/3ba, 2850 sq. ft.) offers a double lot on a corner, which is great, but a location that's near both the refinery and a 4-way stop – not so great. The home is wonderfully situated to push away both liabilities and is, itself, spacious, lovely and all on one level. Sold within days near that $1.299m asking price amid lots of interest; start price was below the acquisition price of $1.350m in Jan. 2004.

• 2111 Valley is a full-size lot sale (4400 sq. ft. of dirt) that listed at $638k and appears to have gone for around $725k.

Just outside the window of 3/1-3/15, we're hearing that 2909 Elm has also made a deal (again); last at $1.559m and not so far removed from MBC's huzzahs for making a deal previously (see "2 Years and $1.3m Later"). The listing is still active, so we aren't sure what to make of this info.

Just a single cancellation in the first part of the month: 636 13th, a 3br/3ba, 2175 sq. ft. home that tried for about 6 weeks, ranging down from $1.849m to $1.599m.

More recently, we've seen 4 other Tree Section listings quit, 3 of them pretty large homes:

• 608 33rd (4br/4ba, 3700 sq. ft.), which just needed to be rescued from its remodels, ran 9 months, most of that at $1.799m;

• 1816 Oak (4br/4ba, 3300 sq. ft.) tolled a quick 5 months with surprisingly little interest, last at $1.449m;

• 591 26th (5br/5ba, 3650 sq. ft.) tried only for about a month, with one slight trim to $1.879m; and

• 2300 Oak (3br/2ba, 1225 sq. ft.) is a rental offered for about 5 weeks at $1.189m, and then, no.

During the first half of the month, we saw just one closed sale: 1728 Poinsettia (4br/3ba and almost 3500 sq. ft.) at $1.6m even. For what the home offered (see MBC's writeup from Nov. 2008), this was a remark-worthy deal.

Outside the 3/1-3/15 window, there's one more sale: the dirt at 1308 Walnut, an unusually large 6720 sq. ft. lot, which has closed at $1.0m. That lot is 50% bigger than the smaller of the standard Tree Section lot sizes (4480 sq. ft.).

Craigslist Craziness

If you ever jump over to Craigslist to look for real estate for sale (MBC offers this link to MB homes on Craigslist in the sidebar), you probably know that chaos reigns there.

Often the headlines scream "too good to be true," and you know what they say about things that sound that way. Mmmm-hmmm.

Squeezed between the FSBOs and faux-FSBOs, the REOs and faux-REOs, and advertisements by real estate agents for properties they are not actually selling, there are also some postings by the actual agents selling some homes.

And then there's one current posting that is a little bit of all these things. A posting that just keeps appearing and reappearing and re-reappearing, raising more questions than it answers. The listing is for 432 24th, a 3br/3ba, 1968 sq. ft. condo in MB. (Click address for listing details from the MLS via Redfin.)

The actual listing agent is posting this property constantly on Craigslist. A search using this link as of Monday night shows 3 postings of the same property on Monday, 2 on Sunday, 2 on Saturday, 3 more back on Friday... you get the picture.

A typical headline:

$1299999 Manhattan beach tri-level with 2 car garage and carport! MUST SELL

What's not typical: That $1.299m is not the only price given.

There's also:

$1199888 MUST SELL BY END OF NEXT WEEK! ONLY 1,199,888! PRINCIPALS ONLY!

Wow, a $100k discount depending on which Craiglist ad you click on!

What about the MLS price? Can you believe it's a steeper discount?

As of Monday afternoon, 432 24th is offered for $1.075m on the MLS. In fact, for a week since it returned to the MLS on March 16, after a hiatus (the listing began last year), it was at $1.099m, before that recent, little cut.

All along, as a buyer, you would have been better off not bargain-hunting on Craiglist.

According to the Redfin listing page (click here for the listing or the pic to enlarge this screen shot), those other 2 higher prices were set on Dec. 11, 2008, and Dec. 12, 2008.

So that $1.299m price was good for exactly 1 day last year, even though it was posted at that price Monday morning at 9am (click to view the Craigslist ad).

Something is askew here, though not fraudulent, exactly. When trolling for out-of-town rubes on Craigslist, one might be well advised go ahead and bump the price up and see if you get a nibble, then maybe offer a "special deal" to those who make contact.

We do wonder about another "time-sensitive" part of the come-on with the listings on this particular home.

That "must sell" language is matched in the listings by claims that the property must be sold "by the end of next week" (from a Friday posting, also click pic to enlarge) or "by Monday" (from a Monday posting) or "this week" (this other Monday posting).

Hold on! By when? Which Monday?

Is it even true that the property "must sell" so quickly?

Over at PropertyShark.com, we found some indications that a loan went bad last Summer and the property was slated for a Trustee's Sale in November. It doesn't look like the auction happened (they often get postponed), though title passed to a couple of LLCs. We're not going to untangle that net here.

You know a story is busy and bizarre when it takes us this long to mention that 432 24th is currently priced well below acquisition.

In January 2005, the condo was purchased for $1.247m. If you can get it for $1.075m now, that's a $172k discount (-14%) off the price from 4 years ago.

A mil for a big condo kinda near the beach, steps to the school... you might have something here, if you can guide us through the madness that is this property's internet footprint at this point.

MB Market Update for 3/15/09, Sand

Last week we covered market activity in the Hill Section for the first half of March. Now a brief update on activity in the Sand Section, with updates past March 15 where appropriate.

Inventory in the Sand stood at 57 at mid-month, with 26 of those SFR listings priced below $2m, and 31 priced higher.

Among these there were 5 new listings:

• 112 19th Place is a clean, if somewhat dated, cottage (3br/2ba, 1500 sq. ft.) right along Ocean that only lasted 7 days at $1.295m;

• 408 9th (pictured) (4br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft.) is a mid-block, flat walkstreet remodel that was pretty much the classic example of the breed, and it sold quickly (within 2 weeks, though after the March 15 close on our spreadsheets), priced at $2.299m;

• 316 16th (5br/6ba, 3050 sq. ft.) is a 3-unit building (posted with SFRs) that boasts a walkstreet location near downtown and an attractive price in light of the location: $1.599m;

• 125 2nd is a mid-90s build that's nicely updated, low on the walkstreet with big views, offered at $4.999m (mentioned in a story on 132 2nd last week – see "A 2nd Try on 2nd");

• 3216 The Strand is a lot sale that was around for part of 2008 at $7.3m and points south, now up at $5.9m – some of its curiosities were recently offered for public viewing (see "Sunday Opens (3/15)").

Matching the number of new offerings, there were 5 sales (new escrows) during the first half March in the Sand (balance!). We mentioned 4 of those, including not 1, but 2 Strand sales (3404 and 1712), the other day in "Quick Picks."

The only sale not mentioned was the new home at 510 23rd (pictured) (4br/4ba, 3200 sq. ft.), because it has been around 6 months and wasn't a particularly quick pick. A very nice Spanish last at $2.199m, down a bit from a start at $2.399m.

One noteworthy cancelation happened in this period, at 215 S. Valley (4br/3ba, 2550 sq. ft.), which began at $1.650m in July 2008 and was last seen on MBC (in "Drip, Drip") at $1.399m, still probably $150k or more too rich for a dated home on a busy street.

Finally in the first part of the month we saw 2 fairly quick closed sales:

• 129 1st (2br/2ba, 1300 sq. ft.) taking just tad more than the $1.199m asking price, $1.215m.

• 138 15th Place (3br/3ba, 2225 sq. ft.), which only began in late January (at $1.589m) and closed March 10 at $1.450m.

Weekend Opens (3/21-3/22)

This weekend is not the same kind of treat we've had recently, with lots of new offerings.

Indeed, there are no exciting new SFR listings in the Sand Section, so we've skipped it.

An abbreviated list of weekend opens follows. Note, in particular, 660 33rd in the Trees. It has been around a while, but we're trying to gin up interest here as we consider running a pricing poll on it next week. (Per a reader suggestion.)

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes – or any open houses – to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.

One more note – our "Weekend Opens" feature is supposed to be about the houses that are listed, but we see these posts used as launching pads for "Open Forum"-type discussions each week. So be it. Keep it clean and we'll perhaps go lightly on the moderation.


Hill Section

509 Dianthus (3br/3ba, 2250 sq. ft.) is a mid-60s home that has been completely redone and resembles some newer construction.

They're pitching the city/mountain views, particularly off the front deck. Just the minimum one pic in the listing, so check it out in person.

Starts at $1.350m. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

881 10th (5br/6ba, 4000 sq. ft.) is a big custom home with a distinctive turret entry. Great in many respects, but the corner location on Poinsettia may be a turnoff for some, as would the lack of a real yard. Sellers paid $2.8m new in April 2006 and seek $2.889m now. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

1817 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3320 sq. ft.) is a newer (2005) home that's priced below acquisition – always something that will grab your blog author's attention.

And then Mrs. MBC went all ga-ga for the Brazilian cherry wood flooring. (She's got a couple of faves like that.)

Overall a solid, sweet newer home that is priced just a notch below where newbies are these days. Sellers paid $1.925m in April 2005; up now, 4 years later, at $1.799. Open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

660 33rd (5br/5ba, 4475 sq. ft.) has been around for most of a year if you count the pre-construction listing, a bit more than 4 months since its official kickoff.

A reader nominated this home for a pricing poll, which would run next week if visitors and commenters here show some interest in the home this weekend.

Your job: Check it out, come back here and chat. Current price: $2.599m. It's open Sat. 1-4pm, Sun. 2-4pm.

Still Slow on Poinsettia

2300 Poinsettia is moving ever so gradually toward market value.

Recall that this rather well-executed remodel (4br/3ba, 2050 sq. ft.) began in November at $1.749m.

That was a deliberate overreach at a difficult time in the market. MBC called a pricing poll (see "Pricing Poll: 2300 Poinsettia"). Side note: re-listing has wiped away records of this home's start price – the current listing looks like the home began at $1.599m, but MBC readers know better.

With a cut this week to $1.499m, 2300 Poinsettia may be getting toward where it needs to be. There are 2 other Tree Section homes in the $1.4m+ range that are comparable:

• 1813 Pacific (4br/3ba, 2135 sq. ft.) began last July at $1.599m, took time off, and is now at $1.469m.

• 1800 Poinsettia (3br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft.) began in early January at $1.579m, and has now trimmed to $1.499m. In June 2004, the home was purchased for $1.320m.

So 1800 Poinsettia is nearing its acquisition price. How about 2300?

This one was purchased for $1.269m in Jan. 2007. Yes, about 2 years ago. The markup (+$230k/+18%) now is all about the remodel. The previous version of this house was pretty frumpy, lacked a real master and had downstairs bedrooms that were kind of dark and depressing. All of those issues are addressed nicely in this crisp and thorough update.

We could easily see the remodel work having run $50k-$100k. (No inside info.) So the break-even point, if there is to be a sale, could be around $1.35m or a bit higher.

The majority of MBC readers responding to our pricing poll said 2300 Poinsettia wouldn't sell (23%) or would go for less than $1.3m if it did (43%). Just 22% thought it would go in the range it has entered now, $1.3m-$1.5m.

We don't imagine that the owner planned a pricey remodel only to break even or lose money, but we'll watch to see where this one ends up.

Good News on Sea-Level Rise?

If you tune in to the science and politics of global warming/climate change from time to time, you know it's much grimmer than the financial news of the past 6-18 months.

Against that backdrop, maybe we can muster some good news: Manhattan Beach does not appear to be much threatened by the sea-level rises that are projected as a byproduct of climate change. At least for the balance of this century.

This is a conclusion drawn from computer models published as part of a recent report by the Pacific Institute (click to go to the main page for the report).

Multiple maps are available (click for the map page), including an interactive Google map that shows the areas of coastal and inland areas at risk of flooding with higher sea levels. (A very cool tool – zoom in a bunch and grab swaths of coastal California to move them around to view which areas are at risk.)

The local dog trainer (LAT) last week published a couple pics of areas of Venice and Marina Del Rey that would get hit with higher sea levels, but, provincial blog that MBC is, we were really just wondering about MB.

So here's what the computers told us: With a sea-level rise of 1.4 meters (4 feet, 7 inches to those stuck on English measures) – the high end of what's expected by the year 2100 – MB's beach will be less wide, but The Strand looks fairly safe, as do all inland parts of town. (Blue represents areas "at risk" now in a "100-year coastal flood event," while purple areas become riskier with the sea level rises.)

Maybe that's what you'd expect if you know the topography of our beaches, but it's nice to know that the pocket-protector crowd agrees.

By contrast, the Hermosa Strand looks sketchier. Maybe building further west than MB did wasn't so wise.

Further south, chunks of Huntington Beach and Seal Beach go underwater fairly easily in a "100-year coastal flood event," even more after sea-level rises. Way south, Imperial Beach gets a bath.

To our north, Pt. Mugu gets inundated. Way north, Santa Cruz gets bisected and the SF Bay Area loses both major airports and lots of coastal development inside the bay. (If you think we're burying the lede here, don't worry, Bay Area folks do not give a rat about anything bad that happens to the LA area.)

So once again, MB is better off than some. The best news may be that your kids or grandkids might still have that patch of dirt you're living on to call home later.

But do reduce your carbon footprint anyway. There's more to life than the sand between your toes.

MB Market Update for 3/15/09, Hills

Let's try to get back to the old format a bit here and discuss recent market activity section-by-section.

As we noted yesterday, the new MB Market Update spreadsheets are available for download by clicking here, or at any time using the link in the upper-right corner of the page. Information in this update closed March 15.

First, a word on inventory. Another update, another record, of course – everyone saw that coming. But this round the bump wasn't much – just 3 over the end-of-February total, now at 148 SFRs west of Sepulveda. That figure is up from 90 at the same point in 2008 (+64%). Inventory broke down this way by sub-region:

Hill: 37
Sand: 57
Trees: 54

Overall stats for this 2-week period: 16 new listings, 7 sales (new escrows) and 3 cancellations. All figures close to the data from last year (17/8/3), as we see in last year's mid-March update.

Let's look at the Hill Section in greater depth today.

Inventory of 37 is a big jump over 13 at the same point last year (+185% if you find that figure useful). This is starting to be a problem.

Luxury and scarcity used to be the rules in the Hills. Now, not so much scarcity.

Here's how that happens, in microcosm: In the first half of the month, 6 new listings hit the market in the Hill Section, 5 of them above $2.8m. But just one deal was made, that on The Georgian (755 11th), priced a bit below $2.8m.

We see just 4 sales of Hill Section properties priced over $2.8m over the past 6 months, and just 4 more if we extend back a full year.

If you did the math there, you see there have been 8 sales above $2.8m in one year, and we just added 5 more to the market in 2 weeks. There are now 28 Hill Section listings priced from $2.8m-$10m, with most – 15 homes – in the narrower range of $3.5m-$6m.

Someone ought to ring a bell or something. A buyer's market already exists, or is about to break out, in MB's prestige high-end Hill Section.

So who's trying to get attention these days? Here are all the new listings, in price order:

• 509 Dianthus (3br/3ba, 2250 sq. ft.) is the neighbor of 511 Dianthus, which quit the market and rented out in this 2-week period after 300+ days without a sale. 509 is a mid-60s home that has been completely redone and resembles some newer construction. Starts at $1.350m.

• 881 10th (5br/6ba, 4000 sq. ft.) is a big custom home labeled "French" in style, perhaps thanks to the distinctive turret entry. Great kitchen and study. The corner location on Poinsettia may be a turnoff for some, as would the lack of a real yard on this 6000 sq. ft. lot. Sellers paid $2.8m new in April 2006 and seek $2.889m now.

• 201 Larsson (3br/4ba, 3900 sq. ft.) is literally at the top of the hill, and sports some good views as a result. MBC teased it in a "Weekend Opens" story and called some of the updates "a bit, well, dated – more 'Miami Vice' than 21st-century MB." A commenter called it a "bachelor pad" and "[n]ot so great for families." Starts at $3.299m.

• 877 8th (6br/6ba, 5000 sq. ft.) is a short-term hold, a newer home (2007) purchased for $3.650m in Sept. 2007, hitting the market this year at $3.599m and down already to $3.399m.

• 502 Anderson (5br/6ba, 4150 sq. ft.) is a bit of a landmark on Anderson if you've ever passed – a completely charming, traditional exterior with an large, well-manicured pine dominating the front. Nice back yard, too. Home is just 5 years old. Starts at $3.595m.

• 100 S. Dianthus (7br/7ba, 6325 sq. ft.) is the most elegant and pricey of the bunch here, a high-up corner-lot home with big views. The home is built around a courtyard with pool and spa. Sellers paid almost $3m in a different era, back in 1999. Starts at $6.299m now.

There were several noteworthy price cuts during this period among existing listings.

MBC detailed the $2m drops on 218 N. Dianthus (now $4.695m) and 511 Pacific (now $5.995m) last week. Also:

• 516 Ardmore (2br/2ba, 1125 sq. ft.) canceled and went FSBO, dropping to $995k, down from its $1.5m start last July;

• 301 Anderson (3br/3ba, 2450 sq. ft.) dropped twice (and pulled a bogus re-list) to get below its $1.9m acquisition price (Feb. '06) to $1.799m; and

• 1026 Duncan (5br/6ba, 4000 sq. ft.) dropped to $3.175m, still well above the March 2005 price of $2.5m.

On a final note, we caught 2 closed sales in this period. One was a small home at 1102 Ardmore (2br/1ba, 1150 sq. ft.) that barely made an impression around here – sold within several weeks for $850k.

Making a much larger impression was 612 11th, the flag lot home we labeled a "Spring Rally Casualty" (from 2007) after the would-be flipper lost $250k in unloading it for $1.024m.

Quick Picks

Sales activity is slow in town, but not absent.

As the new MB Market Update spreadsheets (click to download) for the first half of March show, there were 7 sales of SFRs west of Sepulveda between March 1-15.

In fact, several sales (new escrows) over the past few weeks have come quickly, shortly after listings hit the market:

• In the Hills late last month, it was 620 9th, a big (4br/4ba, 4500 sq. ft.) home near downtown with some views and a real need for updating. (See "Low on the Hill.") We counted 8 days till someone agreed that $2.199m was pretty peachy, and the listing switched to "backup offer" status. (Currently viewable via Redfin.)

• 1712 The Strand is the priciest of the listings we'll discuss. After a few months of off-market promotion at $12m+, this new home came up in early March at $10.5m. Gone within 2 weeks. (Currently viewable via Redfin while in "backup offer" status.)

• 112 19th Place in the Sand, a clean, if somewhat dated, cottage (3br/2ba, 1500 sq. ft.) right along Ocean and, therefore, very near the beach, lasted 7 days at $1.295m.

• 429 31st (4br/5ba, 3800 sq. ft.), a dandy Cape Cod up on the plateau (pictured), lasted 11 days at $2.199m (almost $300k below its May 2005 acquisition price).

• 3505 Pacific (4br/3ba, 2850 sq. ft.) tolled 11 DOM before agreeing to an offer; it had begun at $1.299m, a bit below the Jan. 2004 acquisition price.

• 2111 Valley is this cheapest of this pack, a full-size lot (4400 sq. ft.) with some kind of structure on it that blazed out of the blocks asking just $638k. What was that? A Tree Section lot with a "6" in front? Gone within 8 days.

There was something objectively good, or even great, about each of these listings. The best homes were the Strand home and the plateau home, of course, but 3505 Pacific was extremely charming and simply needed to be priced aggressively to get past its location issue.

The remaining 3 each provided the right tradeoffs between location, condition and price to be attractive.

All of these quick picks beat out properties in their submarkets that have lingered for 6 months, 9 months, even a year or more. Somehow they figured out the state of the market faster than sellers who have been living it a lot longer.

A 2nd Try at 2nd

It's always interesting to watch listings return after they have taken some time off the market.

That was the case with 700 35th, which MBC discussed last week. (See "Back Again on 35th.")

Now we move to the Sand Section, the South End west of Highland. At 132 2nd, we see another case of a listing that tried last year and is back now at a considerably adjusted price.

At 2nd, the adjustment is far bigger: 25% off last year's start.

This 4br/5ba, 4300 sq. ft. home is plenty nice, though it borders Manhattan Ave., which is arguably a busier street down south than Highland. (A solid patch of oleander shields the home somewhat from the the street, a nice touch.) The home does front the walkstreet, and is near a fairly private stretch of the public beach.

For whatever reason, this home has turned over every few years since it was built in the late 1990s. (See the Property History via Redfin.) The sale history shows that a couple different sets of sellers have walked away with hundreds of thousands of dollars for the trouble of living at 132 2nd.

We're assuming that July 1998 sale was the new-construction price, $1.8m. The current owners paid almost twice that ($3.5m) just 7 years later.

In what may be a case of "the one that got away," we heard that this home was in escrow (off market) for $6.225m at about this time last year. When that didn't pan out, it went public at $6.0m in late March. After 3 months and a $300k cut, the sellers quit.

Today, $1.5m has been shorn, and the home can be yours for $4.5m.

That's still a million-dollar markup (+29%) over the 2005 price, and, well, not everyone is getting any markup over 2005 prices these days. (See "Not Worth Their '05 Prices?") The South End, the beach, a walkstreet – yes, those factors will help.

Now take just a few steps down the 2nd St. walkstreet. Here's another option at 125 2nd.

Same year of construction. About the same size (4br/5ba, 3975 sq. ft.). No Manhattan Ave. traffic, and much bigger views. This is real competition for 132 2nd, even if it does start a little bit optimistically at $4.999m. (For that money, you can pick up a brand new home nearer to downtown, like 224 7th, so, yes, the 90s place is reaching.)

These 2 on 2nd will be doing a little dance this Spring and Summer, trying to lure the same buyers. If either one is serious, we'll learn what the market will support these days for this sweet little sub-pocket of MB. The folks at 132 2nd have already begun to adjust their expectations. How long till 125 2nd gets a bite, or makes a move?

Open Forum (3/16-3/22)

This anniversary isn't like the first one.

MBC turned 2 on Sunday. (!)

This round, we're not going to deliver much of a speech like last year. (See "Time for Some Cake.") No fireworks. And we're gnawing on Girl Scout cookies, not cake. (Fewer crumbs on the keyboard.)

Your blog author is happy to have begun this little project, glad to keep evolving, pleased that there's plenty to discuss and still plenty of mystery about what happens next in the local RE market.

If this little hobby (habit?) on top of home & work can be a little exhausting at times, well, we learned to live exhausted years ago. Caffeine, fortunately, is legal.

In Year Three, MBC will get a redesign and we'll start to add a few features we always wanted. After a reader survey, we'll take your ideas of what we need more of, or less.

Your attention is much appreciated, as are the private notes from readers with inspiration and/or information. MBC exists because something like this was needed. We're thinking that will remain the case. And so, onward!

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As always, please use this week's "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature. Like your favorite Girl Scout cookies. And keep it clean, like a Girl Scout might be reading what you write.

Close the Books on 220 35th

Selling a brand new modern in the North End quickly is no easy task.

But 220 35th did go pretty fast late last year. After a splashy debut in early October, the home had a buyer by early December.

This is news today only because we just found the final sale price: $4m even. That was down from an official start at $5m, and an unofficial start before that at $5.5m.

When the deal was made in December, we heard it was at $4m, but the listing was simply canceled off the MLS. No sale price ever posted. PropertyShark.com shows the sale in the last days of the year (Dec. 24).

Was 220 35th a great house? Sure. We called it "spectacular" in one story, describing it thusly:

Here's a beaut with big ocean views on a walkstreet west of Highland. Modern and yet warm, maxed-out size-wise (4br/4ba, 4200 sq. ft.) but cozy. It's truly unique, as befits a custom build by a custom builder who intended to live in the home himself.

For a story and several slick pics via Luxury Life & Style magazine, click here and use the online reader to run up to pages 96-97 (pics also on 98).

There were some issues with the location. 35th is a bit of a challenge, with some crusty old homes and somewhat rowdy neighbors. But the new build is special enough to help you get past that.

This sale would have to rate as one of the great deals of 2008. As fate would have it, 220 35th backs up directly against another brand-new modern that also made a great deal in December – 221 34th. That one, an equivalently sized home on the south side of the block with views that we found superior, was rated by MBC as the "deal of the year" for 2008 at $3.315m.

Sunday Opens (3/15)

Why do they hold open houses for teardowns?

Contemplate this while visiting 3216 The Strand or 1204 Fisher, two featured opens this week.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools." As always, click on any highlighted address for more pics & details via Redfin.

We ask MBC readers who visit these homes to also report back. Tell us what you see, what you like and what you don't like. Use the comments here to discuss the homes we've highlighted.


Hill Section

We don't see new opens this weekend in the Hills so we'll suggest a few greatest hits. The first 2 were featured on the blog earlier this week (see "2 Classy Hillies Down $2m").

511 Pacific (pictured) has shed $2m since its start at $8m late last year. Ginormous (5br/8ba, 8300 sq. ft.) and unique with surprisingly good views. Rated a "must see" for the year by MBC when posted for its first public open. Now priced at $5.995m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

218 N. Dianthus is also plenty big (4br/4ba, 6100 sq. ft.), has some nice views up at the top of the hill and a very different layout. Huge entertaining spaces. Now at $4.695m, maybe the best deal in the Hills Section now – in this case, we agree with the listing copy. Open Sun. 2-5pm.

852 8th (5br/6ba, 4650 sq. ft.) has drawn raves from visitors each time we've mentioned it. If you haven't seen this classically styled home with big ocean views and nice East Coast flavor, do. They haven't shifted from that $4.25m start price yet, and we're nearing 5 months on market. Open Sun. 1-4pm.


Sand Section

3216 The Strand is posted as open Sun. 2-4pm, and we are optimistic that they'll go forward even if rumored buyer interest is for real.

We're also very hopeful that the home sitting on this $5.9m lot will be cleaned and dressed a bit better than it was for a recent broker's open. It was a little house of horrors – an apparently diseased parrot, a clearly deceased rubber ducky hanging from a noose (!), a highly disturbing life-size wizard puppet hiding behind a door. Enough to make you wish for beige walls and scented candles.

Some issues, like the one funky kitchen, holes in the exterior walls, suspiciously low ceilings in the front room – probably won't matter much if you view this (rightly) as a teardown.

We should note in passing that 3216 The Strand was offered briefly last November for $7.3m (see "And Then There Were 4"), and cut to $7.0m before dropping off for a while. Nearby 3404 The Strand (same size lot, 3500 sq. ft.) went into escrow recently at $5.5m, but we don't know the deal price there. By Summer this year we could have 4-6 closed sales on The Strand to help establish market values.

517 3rd is fairly modest for a $1.8m South End home. It's a late-1970s build (4br/3ba, 2425 sq. ft.) with recent upgrades throughout the interior, wanting some help on the exterior. After 6 weeks, it's down a bit to $1.795m; purchased in April 2003 for $1.3m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

408 9th is similar in size to 3rd (4br/3ba, 2400 sq. ft.) but has much more going for it. Midblock on a flat walkstreet, nice outdoor spaces, kinda dreamy. It's also $500k higher than 3rd. As mentioned here last week, 408 9th starts at $2.299m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.


Tree Section

2404 Elm adds something nice to Tree Section options near $1m, a 3br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft. cottage with a finished basement, offering another 600 sq. ft. of usable space. Shows you that there's potential in these little postwar cottages. Starts at $1.199m. Open Sun. 3-5pm.

700 35th is something like a dream home for Tree Section shoppers. Here, your blog author's biases (and those of Mrs. MBC) are showing, we'll admit – it's our kind of thing, if you're going to do the Trees. A comfy, spacious home that feels somehow forested and offers a quiet location with a big yard. We speculated last year that someone might willingly "overpay." At $2.349m, it could be close to right. Open Sun. 1-4pm.

1208 Fisher and 1204 Fisher are rather different. 1208 is The Fisher Queen (see "The Fisher King (& Queen)"), a big new contemporary (4br/4ba, 4750 sq. ft.) priced at $3.999m, while 1204 is a tiny (2br/1ba, 850 sq. ft.) MB original, a 1929-vintage home built mainly of brick. (Pictured.) You don't see that much.

1204 Fisher was scooped up at the same time as the lots for 1212 Fisher and 1208 by the same developers, and we once speculated that 1204 might become The Jack, if all went well for the King & Queen. Despite nibbles, the royalty haven't sold. So 1204 is, frankly, dirt for sale at $1.575m. Distinguished dirt.

Did we mention that 1204 was actually acquired for $1.7m in June 2005, so this sale represents an unloading of sorts?

Both are Open Sun. 1-4pm.

Back Again on 35th

MBC's pricing polls: Some like 'em, some hate 'em.

Typically, we pick a property that is fairly new to the market and appears possibly overpriced. We then ask readers to weigh in on what the final sale price ought to be.

We haven't run a poll in a while, partly because a year-end review of our polls showed that very few subject homes had ever sold. Many just quit the market.

That record has made it hard to compare readers' opinions with the market results, which was the original point. (Though you might infer, at least, that MBC had been doing something right: picking properties that were overpriced enough to need some help.)

It's with that background that we note a new (returning) listing that generally validates readers' opinions: 700 35th is back in the Trees, now at $2.349m. (Click highlighted address for pics & details via Redfin.)

Validation? Why, yes. Here's the background:

• First, 700 35th is a lovely, large (5br/4ba, 3675 sq. ft.) home in a quiet location with a seriously large yard (for the Trees). It was built in 2003. For our love note to 700 35th, check out our original piece setting up the pricing poll.

• In July 2006, perhaps at the peak of the local submarket, the home was purchased for $2.482m.

• In June 2008, a different time, the home came up on offer, beginning at $2.697m(+$215k/+8% over acquisition). It dropped a bit to $2.649m.

• MBC's pricing poll (click graphic to enlarge) found just 26% of readers believing the property would sell for more than $2.4m. But 59% said it would go for less than $2.4m. (Click here for the full poll results story.)

• 700 35th canceled after 3 months at the end of September 2008.

• The listing returned Thursday at $2.349m (-$133k/-5% off acquisition).

Our knack for precision may be complicating the story, which is really this: The sellers paid $2.5m, tried to get $2.7m, but now realize they'll be fortunate to get out at $2.3m.

MBC readers tried to tell them that last Summer.

There's still something to be worked out here, of course. The property hasn't sold. More readers said the property would sell below $2.2m than had said it would go between $2.2m-$2.4m. Today, anything's possible. We'll watch.

A bit more about these polls: So far, just 2 listings on which polls were run have sold.

On one, regarding 742 27th – another quiet Tree Section home MBC liked a lot – more bullish readers won out as the home sold above its adjusted asking price. (See that results story.)

On the other, regarding the Twins in the Trees, readers who found the original prices far out of line were clearly right. You'll recall that 3307 and 3309 Poinsettia were developed on a double lot that was split, two identical floor plans (5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft.) with different styling. Start prices on these 2 were $2.795m more than a year ago.

Our poll found that only 27% of readers believed the twins would sell under $2.2m, but 3307 Poinsettia did (at $2.1m in late December) and 3309 Poinsettia is now down to $2.089m, so the more bearish voters had both nailed.

2 Classy Hillies Down $2m

There's frequent cause here for mention of the slowdown in Hill Section sales, particularly among new homes. (See, most recently, "Drought Ends in Hills.")

This week, 2 more reasons. Two terrific newbies made separate cuts that dropped them each $2m off their start prices. And at least one is starting to look like the best deal up there.

218 N. Dianthus (4br/4ba, 6100 sq. ft.) officially hit the market 53 weeks ago, seeking $6.750m.

If that was a bit rich at the time, you could still see how this grand home with big living/entertaining spaces up at the top of the hill might be a $6m home. Not so long ago, $1,000/PSF for new construction seemed the norm.

MBC has documented several of the cuts along the way. This week, a new $300k cut puts 218 N. Dianthus at $4.695m. That's down $2.055m (-30%).

Look around the Hills, and you'll see 8 other new homes on offer, 2 with lower PPSFs, 2 others just about the same as the new price on Dianthus: $770/PSF. As imperfect as PPSF is for comparison purposes, it's an indicator to watch.

The listing for Dianthus now says the price is below replacement cost. (That is, you couldn't buy the dirt and build this home yourself for less.) Though the lot acquisition price and loans aren't readily visible to us, our take is that's still probably right.

And when a home does drop below replacement, that's a threshold at which sales tend to happen. See, for example, 221 34th, the new beach-close walkstreet home that MBC called the "Best Deal of 2008."

511 Pacific has not been around as long, so its shedding of $2m over 4 months has been more dramatic. From a start at $8.0m last November, Pacific is now at $5.995m after a new $704k cut this week.

There's lots more that's dramatic at 511 Pacific: the whole package.

This giant (5br/8ba, 8300 sq. ft.) home has high ceilings, huge (and unexpected) panoramic views from PV to Malibu and a ton of space spread all about a network of hallways and staircases. You could get lost in this house. Any guests certainly would.

This home treats the master of the house very well, which ought to help sell it to the master-of-the-universe type who can buy it.

Much of the lower floor on the west side (with views) consists of the master, master bath, separate closet/dressing room (with extra bath) and yet another room that can only be viewed as the sitting room for the master. (It would be a nice, bright living room in any other home, but here it's extra space, divorced from the rest of the home's living areas but attached to the master.) The spaces open to a little yard. You could have a full day in your bedroom if someone would kindly truck down a couple of meals.

Suffice it to say, the builders have squeezed a lot of amazing, custom home onto this peculiar, inclined lot. Features like the media/theater room and disappearing window/walls (nanawalls) are state of the art.

There's been just one thing we can imagine keeping people with money from buying 511 Pacific: the troubles with money these days. Even the top tier needs some help getting a dream home. And in many forms, that help seems to be on the way.