Reboot, Retry, Succeed

It's some kind of measure of the sort of Spring we're having that we keep seeing failed listings from the past coming back. Often, they're selling.

511 N. Dianthus is just the most recent, semi-dramatic example.

The 60s box (3br/2ba, 1900 sq. ft.) was cleaned up, but not fancy by any stretch. It was offered to any and all comers for a full year, from late March 2008 till April 2009, when it rented out.

The price at Dianthus seemed always to be a bit high and a step behind the trendline for a market that was notably declining throughout the life of the listing. In March 2008, it started at $1.429m, dwindling to $1.125m in the doldrums of April 2009, when almost nothing was moving. It was the right time to quit.

Dianthus returned this week at $1.075m, pitched simply as a "starter home," and made a deal within 2 days.

One year, failure. Two days, success.

Yes, you could say there's a difference between the climates from the last couple of years to now.

There are quite a few other returnees that recently have made deals:

• 672 19th (3br/2ba, 1675 sq. ft.), purchased as a guest house in 2006 by the next-door neighbors for $1.550m, began in March 2008 seeking a big markup to $1.789m. 

Seven months, no action – a failed listing. 

By Fall 2009, about a year later, it was back, priced below acquisition at $1.299m. (See "Guest House Returns.") A deal was made this month.

• 215 S. Valley, one of the 2 "ugly ducklings" mentioned here at MBC the other day. The failed listing ran 8+ months from Summer 2008-March 2009. This year, a much smarter price ($1.235m) and 7 weeks till a sale.

• 3316 Crest (4br/4ba, 2100 sq. ft.) (pictured), a modern remodel with tiny bedrooms but nice style. A first attempt at selling ran from July-Nov. 2008, about 4 months, priced near $2m – no deal. This year, at $1.785m, they had a deal inside of 4 weeks.

• 1821 Palm (4br/4ba, 3550 sq. ft.), a 1990 build with updates, came on during one of the worst quarters in memory, offered for 3 months from Feb.-April 2009 at $2.175m. No sale. This year, pre-market interest drove the price to $2.250m and it was sold before it was first posted.

• 332 20th (5br/5ba, 4300 sq. ft.) is a gorgeous new custom Spanish near the top of the 20th St. walkstreet over Highland. A high price ($4.795m) and tough market doomed the first listing, which ran from Jan.-Nov. 2008 before the home rented out. It returned in Sept. 2009 lighter, at $3.895m, and finally found a buyer this year after shaving off another $500k to $3.395m.

• 1413 Pine (4br/3ba, 2275 sq. ft.) has gotten plenty of play here at MBC (most recently here). A failed, overpriced listing ($1.759m start) ran from Jan.-June 2008. This year, the price was right and the action quick – it closed at $1.385m recently.

• 560 35th is a big Craftsman (6br/6ba, 3600 sq. ft.) purchased in January 2004 for $1.635m. An overly ambitious resale attempt ran from July 2008-Jan. 2009, with the sellers seeking $2.425m, then stepping down to $2.125m before calling it quits. 

The new listing began more reasonably in late January at $1.895m (see "Adjusting Upon Return") and found a buyer within a month. [UPDATE: The sale closed for $1.740m a couple days after this post first appeared; that's +$105k/+6% over the Jan. 2004 price, essentially flat for the sellers after costs of sale.]

• 3212 Blanche (4br/5ba, 3000 sq. ft.) tried to sell twice without success – once from July-Nov. 2008, and again from Feb.-April 2009. As we noted last week in "Look Who's Found Buyers," the biggest change in the listing when it reappeared this year wasn't the price ($1.849m) but in the sellers' offer of financing. 

Some returning listings that haven't yet hit paydirt:

• 420 1st may buck the trend – but we'll see. Purchased for $1.075m in June 2007, this one ran from Feb.-Aug. 2009, starting at $1.275m.

It's back now at $1.130m, not much of a markup anymore, but still more than the sellers paid in 2007. And there doesn't seem to be a path being beaten to the door.

• 4419 Highland, too, is a tough sell for all kinds of reasons. The "Gateway to Manhattan Beach" gets plenty of exposure, and that's the problem. (See "'Gateway' Returning?") With that said, $1.189m for pretty new construction, 4 bedrooms, steps to surf... someone might bite, though we'd still expect it to be another renter.

• 616 29th (4br/5ba, 3500 sq. ft.) is a 5-year-old Craftsman purchased new in Aug. 2005 for $2.425m. For 5 months, from April-Sept. 2008, the sellers tried to get out basically flat. Instead, they rented out the property. 

For 2 months in Summer 2009, they tried again to find a buyer, now at $2.379m. (See "Welcome Back.")

In February this year, the listing returned again, another step down from the 2005 acquisition price at $2.249m. That's a lot of house on a nice street for a not-so-unreasonable price, but it hasn't caught fire yet. One to watch.

Quack Quack

Down in the real Sand Section, 2 ugly ducklings now have deals.

215 S. Valley (4br/3ba, 2550 sq. ft.), right at the border with Hermosa and abutting the Robinson Elementary playground, found a buyer within 7 weeks of listing this year.

That's a lot better than the 8+ months without a sale that the home experienced from Summer 2008-March 2009. 

As we noted in early February in "215 Valley's Back," the home was offered first for $1.650m, much too high, and only gradually slid to $1.399m. MBC more or less predicted in early 2009 that the listing would approach $1.2m to find a buyer.

Though it quit in 2009, this year, Valley was back at $1.235m, with all kinds of "affordability" come-ons in the listing:

• Best value for the money in all of Manhattan Beach!

• If you have a family with small children, you cannot afford to pass up this ubelievable opportunity! [sic]

• Now is the time to get in to Manhattan Beach at an affordable price! 

They didn't mention that the home was dated, the layout peculiar or that speedway Valley was an alarming presence right out the front door, but anyone who toured the home figured those things out quickly.

Here, it's always been about the price. And this year, it looks like they got it right.

Also running along Valley in the South End, 435 10th (4br/3ba, 2025 sq. ft.), has a distinct advantage over 215 S. Valley – a long walkstreet frontage. It's just the garage facing the speedway, while the front door opens to one of those signature sleepy, wide sidewalks replete with toys and kids' squeals.

The sellers could see only the benefits, so 10th began in October last year at $1.799m. Apparently that didn't seem crazy, since they posted a deal fairly soon, but it didn't pan out and the listing came back for months.

10th was last down to $1.499m, nearing lot value and reflecting the fact that the funky old-world look and feel of the home was not for everyone.

How many buyers does it take, though? It says here: One.

The Church in the Sand?

Whether or not you're a parishioner, you probably know quite well where American Martyrs church is.

You see the gilded bell tower rising high above the Tree Section from many points in town.

Did we say the tower rises above the Tree Section? You thought so, too, right? But what if the church was actually in the Sand Section?

For one thing, that already-valuable real estate might be worth a bit more.

For another, homes in the Martyrs neighborhood could sport a "Sand Section" designation, and with that, perhaps an expectation of higher prices than they may already fetch. Buyers searching for beach-adjacent properties in MB might pull up some of these homes and give them a shot.

Looking at a list of homes that have transacted in the past several years in the Martyrs neighborhood – already a pretty prestigious area – we see that around 15% of the listings were coded in the MLS as being located in the Sand Section (area 142), instead of Tree Section (143).

But those 85% had it right: all of the area from Ardmore eastward up the hill is the Tree Section. Period.

The South Bay Association of Realtors publishes the map everyone follows, and there's no ambiguity.

(This graphic, excerpted from one of 2 maps published here and here on local agent Janie Sue Nagy's site, follows the official lines precisely. The second map shows street names.)


Nonetheless, 2 active listings in the Martyrs area of the Trees call themselves Sand:

• 521 12th (4br/3ba, 3150 sq. ft.), a complete remodel that's been having trouble drawing interest as the listing nears 300 DOM (re-lists have reset the clock), is just a few doors up from Ardmore, but firmly in area 143.

• 645 12th (5br/6ba, 4900 sq. ft.), construction that was new when first offered in Sept. 2008, has newly re-listed with a new agent. The new listing description labels it: "MB Sand Section's Best Priced New Home."

Among Tree Section homes, 645 12th is the third-most-expensive example of new construction at its new price of $3.395m. 

Though it's a block deeper into area 143 than the other 12th St. offering, the listing aspires to be Sand. Further down, the listing also says: "South Hill Sand Section Martyrs Adjacent." Where's the word "tree?"

Between those 2 listings on 12th is an active listing at 1204 Fisher, properly coded as Tree Section. It's probably 50 yards, as the crow flies, from either 12th St. listing. Its immediate neighbors, The Fisher King (1212 Fisher) & Queen (1208), which sold last year, were also both coded as Tree Section listings.

Strangely, though, another 12th St. sale last year – 512 12th, right at the corner with Ardmore, wound up with that "Sand Section" designation. Still, it took nearly 9 months to sell.

Let's try to be charitable for a moment here.

The Martyrs Hill neighborhood is at its most prestigious along 14th, 15th, 17th and 18th streets. Lots are wider and the homes, often large, are set back further. Some have ocean views. It "feels" more like the Trees, with dash of Hill Section thrown in.

The southern streets – 13th and 12th and points between – are higher-density, with new development having created a feel much more like the wall-to-wall homes closer down by the beach. Maybe the 12th St. listings mentioned here "feel" more like the Sand Section.

That doesn't change the map. No home from Ardmore to the east is a Sand Section home, no matter how it feels – or how decent the ocean view.

You hear the waves crashing at night? Still not Sand Section.

Ask the folks in the Hill Section who can hear the waves, too. They're not angling for a new map. But then again, they're in the Hill Section.

MB once had some churches by the beach, but they've long since been sold off or converted to other uses. We get the sense that Martyrs will do fine on its lovely patch of land, regardless of what the neighbors call their part of town.

Weekend Opens (3/27-3/28)

 Are you around this weekend? In Mammoth? Off to the desert or a tropical isle?

We'll get some serious beach weather this weekend, so if you're here, you can enjoy the full benefit of the 90266. Without the towel service, unfortunately.

There are a couple of new opens, plus a healthy set of longer-running listings worth checking in on.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin.

Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.


Sand Section

A debut worth your time, partly for the home and partly for the views, is 311 26th (4br/5ba, 2475 sq. ft.), a newer (2007) custom home on a 2/3rds-size lot just above Highland.

The other day here we noted the big ocean views over the park, along with great European styling and fantastic detail inside.

Starts at $2.798m, steep for a home of this size, but it's something special. 

311 26th is open Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

3516 Blanche (3br/3ba, 3000 sq. ft.) is a 50s cottage with various additions and remodels, giving you modern size with some big, soaring ceilings adding to the open feeling.

Starts at $1.525m, easily the largest offering in the almost-$1.5m set. (1605 Elm, at $1.588m, is a tad bigger and much better located, but not open this weekend.)

3516 Blanche is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

The French Normandy remodel at 1724 Pine (4br/4ba, 3525 sq. ft.) has been offered now for most of 2010, somehow escaping the rush of sales activity so far.

The heavy use of stone outside gives it a style that isn't for everyone, but the inside is comfy and very nicely remodeled (it's a 1998 build), with great attention to detail. A quirk: Though the bedrooms are spacious, the master (up front) is cramped a bit by the folded-down roof detail in the front.

Price is down about $150k since the start, newly priced at $1.898m.

1724 Pine is open Sun. 1-4pm.

2708 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.) was lucky once, making a deal within its first week back in February.

Alas, that deal fell apart, but, maybe looking for luck again, the sellers marked the listing down from $1.849m to the lucky $1.777m. The triple-7's didn't work over the space of a month, and now we're looking at $1.711m (7/11).

What's next, a raffle at next week's opens?

2708 Pacific is open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.

More Foreclosure Prevention

Usually the rule is to hold your "bad" news for a Friday afternoon release, meaning fewer people hear about it and even fewer read about it in the paper on Saturday. (What's a newspaper?) 

A getaway day like this Friday? Any news coming out must be awful.

Not so in D.C., though. The feds are talking about yet another foreclosure-prevention program. It's a revision to the last plan that didn't work well enough.

One rave review comes from Moody's analyst Mark Zandi:

"This is very exciting," says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Analytics. "I think it has the potential to be a game changer, to really bring a quicker end to this foreclosure crisis that is engulfing the housing market and the economy. I'm very encouraged."

"I think this could mark the end of the housing crash, yes," he says. "We've been in a long slide for four long, painful years, and this could mark the definitive end of that."

A "game changer." The "definitive end" of the "housing crash." Big claims.

So what do the feds propose to do? (See NY Times story.) The top changes:

• Encourage more loan mods and principal writedowns for "underwater" homeowners.

• Allow refis into FHA-backed loans for "underwater" cases.

• Pay 2nd lienholders more to release their claims and allow modifications/short sales on 1st TDs.

• Reduce mortgage payment requirements for people while unemployed (3-6 months).

All the changes will cost money – perhaps $50 billion. (Some argue that involving the FHA could make this program a very big blank check if it doesn't succeed in arresting foreclosures.) But that $50 billion is not "new money." That's TARP money that was already approved, spent, even reimbursed. It's like a free-floating pool of cash for whatever the issue of the day may be.

The overarching theory behind foreclosure-prevention efforts is that foreclosures reduce home prices, and that hobbles an economic recovery.

People losing their homes is a tragedy in its own right, but the reason the feds care is that lower home prices – and the cycle of more foreclosures that lower prices ignites – reduce the value of all those mysterious toxic assets that are hovering like a dark cloud someplace, threatening the financial system and the economy with a new wallop if they ever come back to the fore. Thus, by keeping people in their homes by almost any means available, we prop up the economy and set the stage for a full recovery, after which maybe someone can look at those toxic assets a little closer.

It's an interesting idea – trying to preserve artificially high home prices to protect against some unknowable worst-case scenario from coming to pass... like the beginning of a "W-shaped" recession that no one wants, especially in an election year.

To date there hasn't been much good to come out of this administration's foreclosure reduction plans, nor the previous administration's. But there's a lot of hope attached. Might this be the "definitive end," this time?

Banned in China

The Google is in the news on account of their trouble with Chinese internet censors.

You don't have to tell MBC about that; we've got the same problem. Kinda.

As reported recently by one jet-setting reader, MBC is blocked by the Chinese tech overlords.

What, the Communists have no use for $3m beach homes? 

For those of you heading abroad soon, we've also heard that some elements of the front page don't load right in Singapore, that the old search box didn't work right in Amsterdam (try the new Lijit search box next time you're there) and that internet service is surprisingly slow around Lake Como.

MBC's readership is, of course, mostly quite local, and definitely American (USA). Out of curiosity, we took a snapshot of a recent month's traffic, finding that our neighbors to the north (Canada) place second, hosting a few more MBC partisans than the old country (UK).

A couple of dozen Indians dreamed a dream about MB that month (perhaps some want to be a millionaire), while Japan and Mexico brought us a few dozen more, combined.

Another peek at traffic sources reveals California as the top state – no surprise – with New York second (almost all NYC) and Texas third (there's a surprise). Arizona, New Jersey and Virginia round out the top 6 states.

The 3 beach cities, MB, HB and Redondo, are tops for readership at the urban level, if we mark down the vast city of L.A. (and all its wannabe-city neighborhoods), which technically placed third.  Santa Monica outpolls NYC, but the Big Apple brings more readers than Torrance.

A big shout-out to you Burbankers, who come to MBC more frequently than San Francsicans (though maybe because the Burbankers are simply MB residents checking in from work), and another shout for Pittsburgh, PA, which for some reason brought us more visits in that sample month than Glendale or Beverly Hills. (No word yet on Scranton vs. Whittier.)

What we'd really like to see, but our analytics just can't seem to provide for now, is a breakdown of readership by subsection of MB. Do we have more in the Trees or the Sand, for instance? Is the Hill Section over- or under-represented for its size within MB?  (For what it's worth, MBC uses both Google Analytics and Clicky, the former being the gold standard, and the latter being simply great.)

We kid, of course. We like all our readers, in or out of MB, at home, at work or abroad.

Don't people realize, though, that walling off the Chinese nouveau riche from MBC is bad for business locally? Anyone game for a petition?

MB Market Update for 3/15/10, Sand

The Sand Section was a bit slow to catch the wave of this relatively busy 1st quarter, but it's making up for lost time.

For this update, we'll look at activity in the first half of the month, as seen on our MB Market Update spreadsheets, and add in some more up-to-date action to bring you current.


Sand Section

Total inventory at mid-month was at 34, with 17 SFRs offered for less than $2m (see actives <$2m), and 17 more offered for $2m or more (see actives >$2m).

New offerings in the first half of the month included:

• 125 8th ($2.995m) (pictured), 416 6th ($1.779m) and 3413 Bayview ($835k), none of which lasted long – only Bayview slipped past March 15 before a deal was posted. 

• 316 10th (4br/5ba, 4100 sq. ft.), a steel-and-glass modern at the corner with Crest that probably won't go quite so quickly at $3.8m. It was offered for parts of 2007 and 2008 for $3.999m, but has returned now as a bankruptcy sale – with a possibility that the home will rent out (again). At that price, bet on the rental.

• 445 32nd (3br/2ba, 1900 sq. ft.), an older cottage up on the plateau with some updates, and also some of the, er, least-good listing pics we've seen. 

The price changes every few days – it began at $1.4m, got changed quickly to $15m (in error), then $1.5m, then $1.45m, and is now creeping back up at $1.490m. Curious note: The seller is the listing agent.

• 456 27th (3br/3ba, 2625 sq. ft.), the Tudor on sleepy 27th that has drawn a few mentions here at MBC (see "Kickin' It Old World"). Priced at $1.690m.

Since mid-month, there are a couple highlights among the new offerings:

• 311 26th (4br/5ba, 2475 sq. ft.), a newer (2007) custom home on a 2/3rds-size lot just above Highland.

Big ocean views over Parque Culiacan Bruce's Beach Park are just the beginning of the story. Great European styling is carried through inside with fantastic detail.

Is $2.798m ambitious given the home's size? Yes.

• 124 3rd (6br/6ba, 4650 sq. ft.) is a mid-90s home that's been split into a duplex, but they say it can be brought back together. That may be worthwhile since the 100 block of the South End walkstreets doesn't come available often. Starts at $4.295m.

Among the sales (new escrows) this period not mentioned above (see the Sand solds page here):

• 2 on Crest in the North End – 3316 Crest (4br/4ba, 2100 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a modern remodel with tiny bedrooms and big ocean views, offered for $1.785m, finding a buyer within 4 weeks; and 3408 Crest (2br/2ba, 1100 sq. ft.), listed among SFRs despite the extra unit, had been listed since October, when it began at $1.050m. 

For 3408, that $1m-plus start appeared to be a rescue price – the owner paid $890k in Sept. 2005, but only found a buyer when the price dropped to $779k and the listing officially went short.

• 405 9th (a walkstreet lot priced at $2.3m, but sure to close well below) and 112 The Strand (3br/4ba, 4300 sq. ft., $7.795m), mentioned in "Trying to Get In on the Action."

Not many price cuts this period, but we did see:

• 1200 The Strand (5br/5ba, 4250 sq. ft.)  making one quick, precipitous $2.250m cut after just a couple of weeks on offer this year, now at $8.450m. 

This prompted MBC to opine, gently, that "another cut of the same magnitude doesn't seem impossible," while a couple of MBC readers thought the offering, 80s vibe or no, may be priced right now – we'll watch.

• 435 10th (4br/3ba, 2025 sq. ft.), the fun and funky old-world walkstreet home near Valley and downtown, cut yet again to $1.499m.

• 517 1st, most recently featured in "Re-Re-Repriced on 1st" in mid-February, was re-priced again, creeping ever back up toward its start price ($1.899m) with a new step up to $1.825m, after which the listing immediately went "on hold" for a bit (that's why we have no live link to the listing at the moment). The listing had dipped to $1.599m as recently as Feb. 5.

For all the sales action we've seen early in 2010, closed sales have been slow to come through. A few this period:

• 316 Manhattan Ave. (4br/2ba, 1950 sq. ft.) (pictured) is a 60s build with some contemporary-style updates, but it still needs plenty of work to come into the 21st century (a dated, walled-off kitchen and wretched master bath being top issues). But it did offer a nice location and a different, family-friendly layout with 4br all on one level. 

Manhattan Ave. began at $1.699m last May, and after a few months of promoting a price cut closer to $1.6m as big news, the listing closed for $1.430m (-$269k/-16%) in early March.

• 225 Moonstone (3br/2ba, 1350 sq. ft.), a smallish, freshened-up 60s cottage in El Porto Norte, garnered $1.109m (per public records, $1.125m by the MLS), a modest dip below its Dec. 2005 acquisition price ($1.140m).

• 501 4th (5br/5ba, 4100 sq. ft.), a newer (2005), sunny Ingleside-adjacent Caliterranean sold short for $2.525m, a significant chop below its price when new ($2.750m, June 2006). As is common with short sales, this one had hung around in escrow limbo for months before keys were finally transferred late last month.

Close the Books on 1413 Pine

It was early this year that we got one of the first indications that low rates, pent-up demand and low inventory could lead to a warm first quarter – in terms of local real estate, that is.

That early indicator was 1413 Pine (4br/3ba, 2275 sq. ft.), a remodel that had failed to sell 2 years prior when it was badly overpriced at $1.759m.

The home returned to market January 12 and was featured that day on MBC, where we greeted the new listing with a pricing poll. (See "Re-Poll: 1413 Pine," which includes a review of the home.) 

Pine's new listing began at $1.389m, nearly $400k below the 2008 price, and stood almost alone in the price range.

While we gave MBC readers almost a week to see the home and vote, a buyer – one of several – stepped in and made the question largely moot. And now, after a 2-month escrow, the sale has closed for $1.385m, a trifling $4k below the list price.

So how did MBC readers fare in the attempt to call the final price?

Only 11% went with the "winning" price range of $1.389m (+/- 5%). (Graphic here is from our results story on 1413 Pine.)

A practical group of 32% went just a step down to $1.250m-$1.325m.

We say "practical" because, let's be honest, virtually no Tree Section listings had sold within 5% of asking for many months. (See our Tree Solds page from the 3/15/10 update for evidence.) Even if $1.389m seemed reasonable on its face, odds seemed to be against a full-price sale at that point.

Combining those 2 top categories, 43% of readers voting in the poll thought Pine would sell within 10% of its start price.

The rest of those voting missed the chance to see Pine as a tea leaf foretelling an active, early Spring selling season in MB.

Look Who's Found Buyers

Our ongoing story of this surprising Spring continues to be written by buyers snapping up listings that had been relatively ignored:

• 317 8th, a South End lot at the corner with Crest, was the longest-running walkstreet offering at about 140 days when a buyer knocked. The price had recently dropped to $1.679m.

When we wrote of "Sand Lots Moving" last week, 8th was the "odd lot out." No longer. And that puts the count of walkstreet lots currently on offer at, roughly: zero.

• 672 19th (3br/2ba, 1675 sq. ft.), a late-50s cottage with some inspired 50s-revival decor, was last discussed here in "Guest House Returns" in Sept. 2009.

Why "guest house?" Because the owners of a neighboring home had purchased 672 back in March 2006 for $1.550m, in an off-market transaction, to host out-of-town guests and to take advantage of the pool in the back yard.

By April 2008, though, the owners were looking to get out of the guest house if they could get a nice markup, trying at $1.789m. Truth be told, they paid too much in 2006 and were asking far, far too much in 2008.

They came back around Labor Day last year at $1.299m, and waited till Friday – almost 195 DOM – to formally make a deal.

• 3212 Blanche (4br/5ba, 3000 sq. ft.) may be the biggest surprise on today's list, given that the same home at about the same price ($1.849m) was rejected by the market in both 2008 and 2009, in 2 separate listings.

In a recent "Sunday Opens" post, MBC said of Blanche: 

The home is sunny and has some treetop views, even The Dune comes into focus nicely. But it's very hard to get past the location on busy Blanche and the lack of a yard. Even in this warm market, homes with issues still need discounts – or at least seller financing, which is teased in the listing.

That's right, the sellers – who paid $1.8m in 2005, and appeared to be trying to limit their losses upon resale – were offering help with the 1st or 2nd trust deed, depending on what a buyer might need.

With fairly quick action here (24 DOM), don't be surprised if the financing was the trick that made the magic happen so soon at Blanche.

Much of the first part of 2010 was about well-priced, newer listings finding buyers quickly. But there's a lot of backed-up inventory that needs action, too – and here are some cases of such listings finding their market. We'll have more to learn when the deals close.

Weekend Opens (3/20-3/21)

Funny how the rush of new offerings hasn't fully continued. Very little is new this weekend – perhaps some sort of madness has temporarily consumed half the population. Or maybe everyone was just busy prepping for the Robinson Fun Run.

We're still happy to suggest a couple listings that have popped up here previously, and there are new offerings among Sand Section THs and in the Trees. We encourage you to find the gems among the opens this weekend and report back.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin.

Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.


Hill Section

901 Pacific (5br/6ba, 7300 sq. ft.) draws a second mention here at MBC on hopes that they'll hold true to the listing's promise of 2 open houses this weekend. (Prior opens did not all happen.)

A fairly conservative Spanish design keeps the home on the modest side, but behind the façade it's a huge new custom home with ocean views in abundance, and all the trappings you'd expect in a higher-end Hill Section estate.

With the sale this week of 645 9th (in escrow), Pacific is now the priciest listing in the Hills at $6.995m.

Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm, they say.


Sand Section

We're still looking for more reactions to the Tudor at 456 27th (3br/3ba, 2625 sq. ft.), one of 3 "Old World" style listings referenced in "Kickin' It Old World."

Though the build is late-70s officially, the home's been updated in important ways, building on the original style. The kitchen is very inspired, modern, European.

Locationwise, as plateau streets go, 27th is one of the quietest. The home offers a bonus roof deck as well.

456 27th starts at $1.690m; open Sun. 1-4pm.


South End TH Dept.:

97 Bayview (3br/3ba, 1500 sq. ft.) is a 1980 build with some updates and big ocean views, thanks to a favored location a bump up above surrounding homes. Why won't they show you the exterior in these pics, though? Starts at $1.399m. Open Sun. 2-5pm.

105 Crest (3br/3ba, 2325 sq. ft.) is a 1991 build with a nice location, but more tired inside than the pics suggest. Nearing 4 months on market now, currently at $1.325m. Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.


Tree Section

728 26th (5br/5ba, 4700 sq. ft.) first came on offer almost exactly one year ago at $2.999m. You may recall, this turned out to be awful timing, and an excessive price didn't help.

Though the listing dipped to $2.495 at some point, there was no umph or energy around it, just a sign out front pleading for a knock at the door some day.

This week there's a new agent, great staging (or they were hiding this all along), and the first open we can recall.

Look back at that home size: 4700 sq. ft. inside, on a lot and half on a corner. The block is pretty sleepy. Though the mid-90s build has shown its age a bit too much, the core here is a spacious Mediterranean that could be glammed up with some attention. A lot of people in MB do buy Mediterraneans, so it can't be such a tough sell, can it?

728 26th starts anew at $2.499m (yes, same price as before), and is open Sun. 1-4pm.

3517 Oak (5br/4ba, 3125 sq. ft.) is a late-90s build that's been updated and given some nice personal flair. (You can decide if the dark marble bath qualifies as updated or flaired.)

The sunny home compares reasonably against new or newer construction, and the start price, at $1.525m, will prove a temptation as well.

But there's this: Location. You already picked that up from the Oak address. It's also straight across the street from the Barnabey's Belamar hotel parking lot, which is a distraction. Although if you've got frequent of out-of-town guests, it may be nice to know you can offer them a place to stay that's just a stone's throw away.

3517 Oak is open Sun. 2-4pm.

MB Market Update for 3/15/10, Hills

The new MB Market Update spreadsheets for 3/15/10 are available for your online viewing now by clicking here, or at any time by using the pull-down menu on the front page under "MB Market Updates."

March has more or less maintained the sales pace of our pretty warm February. We saw an amazing 17 sales (new escrows) of SFRs west of Sepulveda in the second half of February, and 11 more in the first 15 days of March. A few of those came in right at the wire.

New offerings outpaced sales, as one might expect, with 17 new listings in this period.

With new offerings, sales, flopped escrows and a couple of cancellations, total inventory rose by just 5 listings over the end of February, to 83 SFRs total by mid-March.

Inventory by sub-region west of Hwy. 1 (for more see the tracking page of the spreadsheets):

• Hill Section: 18   (see actives page)
• Sand Section: 34   (see actives <$2m or actives >$2m)
• Tree Section: 31   (see actives <$1.5m or actives >$1.5m)

Let's check in on the Hill Section first, and get to the rest in an upcoming post.

Hill Section

There were 4 new listings in the Hills, but the news was in a couple of deals that were cut.

The Hill Section may be slow by nature, but then one day you'll see $11m+ in real estate sell all at once:

645 9th (6br/7ba, 7750 sq. ft.) is a huge, certified "green" house on a quiet street with no views to speak of. All of which is to say, it's not your typical, sprawling, ocean-view Hill Section estate.

Inside, the home is glorious, spacious and smart, with a high-end, modern Cape Cod feel and great touches all around.

MBC has often applauded the effort here at conscious building with good-for-Earth materials and innovative water systems, but we've just as often winced at the notion that there's anything "green" about an 8,000-sq.-ft. house. Electrifying and heating a home like this is, unavoidably, a demanding enterprise. (Is a separate home theater with built-in popcorn stand "green," or just cool? We'll check with some enviro friends and get back to you.)

645 9th launched last June at $7.950m and had cut about $1m to $6.999m, where it stood for quite a while before a buyer knocked.

617 6th (5br/5ba, 5725 sq. ft.) is a bit more typical as Hill Section speckies go, a big Caliterranean with ocean views, home theater and so forth. It's close to Ardmore and walkable to downtown.

What's different about 6th is that it's a speckie that was never properly finished before hitting the market back in early 2008. A long-running (600+ DOM) listing for the almost-complete home finally crashed in late 2009 when the investors foreclosed. There's been some construction activity recently aimed at finishing the project.

Launched at $5.995m oh-so-long ago, 617 6th was last at $4.790m when a buyer stepped up.

Hoping some day to join the ranks of sold properties were 4 new listings:

• 901 Pacific (5br/6ba, 7300 sq. ft.) is a custom build in a fairly conservative Spanish design. Ocean views in abundance, and all the trappings you'd expect in a higher-end Hill Section estate. Starts at $6.995m.

• 805 Duncan Place (5br/3ba, 4100 sq. ft.), plenty of house with a substantial location issue at the corner of an alley and a busy street (Ardmore). Starts at $1.995m.

• 710 N. Dianthus (5br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft.), a newer (2003) home that will remind you of many Tree Section speckies of the bubble years, with nice touches here and there. Starts at $2.075m.

• 910 2nd (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.), starting at $2.599m this year. It was higher ($2.895m) in late 2008, when it didn't sell. For more see our recent "Weekend Opens" post featuring the listing.

We also saw the return of bank-owned, ocean-view 1026 Duncan after a few days in escrow. Purchased new in 2005 for $2.5m, it's now at $2.199m.

Price cuts came at 1011 Pacific (to $3.950m, see "Trying to Get In on the Action" for more) and 201 Larsson (to $2.499m).

There was one more cut on the lot sale at 800 N. Poinsettia (to $1.699m) – a small chop that nonetheless drew a buyer right after we closed our March 15 spreadsheets: the first sale of the second half.

Sand Lots Moving

Just last week, there was one surprise in the walkstreet-dirt category, when 405 9th sold within about 6 weeks of launching at the much-too-high price of $2.3m. Expect it to close nearer to $1.8m or below.

Turns out, that was just one in a series.

Less than 2 weeks ago, 416 6th came out at $1.779m and almost instantly had a deal for more.

The home's a mess, so watch for that to be vastly reworked or, more likely, 'dozed. 

Similar story at 125 8th (pictured) – like 416 6th, it began on March 4 and had a deal within 10 days.

Unlike 6th, 125 8th made a run for several months last year without success, at a higher price.

This Spring, at 10% less ($2.995m), it found its market. (We first covered 8th last year in "Downtown Cottages at $3m.")

8th is a different bird, an older cottage on the downhill, Strand-adjacent walkstreet west of Manhattan Ave., clearly livable and pretty charming.

It's not clear whether this buyer will keep or scrape the existing structure, but the value is clearly in the land, and let's not act surprised if a custom build graces the location a couple of years hence.

The odd lot out, for the time being, is 317 8th, at the corner with Crest, newly at $1.679m. Crest turns out to be a bigger liability than maybe was apparent at first.

We're just pulling the threads together now, and can't say definitively that none of these recent sales are going to builders. But among the land purchases recently, we know several were to private parties for custom builds – the trend of the moment in local development.

Open Forum (3/17– )

You've got questions.

About schools.

About refinery flares.

About whether you made a mistake not installing air conditioning.

You've got answers, opinions, news to share.

That's what this "Open Forum" is for.

And please keep it clean.

Trying to Get In on the Action

There's still a steady clip of activity in the market, but that doesn't mean every seller's got what the buyers want.

You still have to price right to get action. That seems to be the goal of a few sellers with new cuts this week.

1011 Pacific (6br/5ba, 6050 sq. ft.) has seen big-profit dreams meet reality. The sellers picked up this gorgeous, ocean-view property for $3.975m, new, in August 2004. Perhaps accustomed to bubble-era price inflation, they tried to unload the home at a big premium – nearly $6m – in Sept. 2008, a price that rolled into 2009.

As MBC noted in "Pacific Connection" several weeks ago, the failure to sell in 2009 finally began to take its toll. The listing reappeared early this year, after some time off, at $4.199m, just 6% above acquisition.

With its newest cut to $3.950m, the sellers are finally saying they know that they can't get what they paid in 2004, no matter how glorious the home, or how warm the market seems to be.

Remember, last year we documented the fact that MB was living in 2004 prices – now, so is 1011 Pacific.

That said, this is a serious move at Pacific to get notice – don't count them out. (For a little more on the property, see this "Weekend Opens" post from late January.")

In the Trees, 937 27th (4br/4ba, 3150 sq. ft.) hung around for the past 4 months at a small markup over its Feb. 2007 acquisition price of $1.9m. The listing's "new" this week on account of a new agent taking over, and the price is now at $1.899m, flat from '07.

Lest you protest that no one is getting their 2007 prices these days – a good point you'd be making if you did – 937 27th, a late-90s build, was brought up to crisp, 21st-century standards just last year by the newest owners.

So take the 2007 price, rewind it to 2004 or so, then add the value of the remodel, and make your call from that standpoint. The sellers are into the property now for much more than they paid and what they're offering it back for.

If you're so inclined, there's a virtual tour here.

A growing series of options on The Strand awaits those who can stomach the crowds, dogs and joggers, plus those pounding winds and endless window-cleaning bills.

One option made a sudden move this week after just a couple of weeks on offer.

1200 The Strand (5br/5ba, 4250 sq. ft.) is a Spanish with a few challenges.

The location is just a bit too fully in the thick of things right at the pier. The layout is suboptimal. And the décor? The listing spells it out: "completely remodeled in 1989." Let's count together – that was, 2, 5, no, 15, no, 21 years ago. And it shows.

Are we saying we'd refuse to live there, given the chance? Why, no. But in the near-$10m range, buyers are going to want more.

Last year, the property was offered for a few months at $9.9m. In late February, it re-debuted at $10.7m. On Monday, a whopping $2.250m in fat was chopped off quite quickly, bringing the price to $8.450m.

Is that enough of a cut? Consider 112 The Strand (3br/4ba, 4300 sq. ft.), built the same year that 1200 was renovated, but in the far quieter South End. It's in escrow now after less than 30 days at $7.795m.

Given the vagaries of the very high end along the Strand, it's hard to say what's right for 1200. But another cut of the same magnitude doesn't seem impossible, if these sellers are going to join the crowd of successful sellers this year.

That's 3 Laps Completed

Today, MBC turns 3.

And this will be a year of change.

If you’re a regular reader, you’ve already seen a lot of change. We like to think of it as evolution.

Back in 2007, it was more of a revolution. No one else was standing up and saying that the go-go days of the bubble were over, and that prices in MB were coming down. And no one was quite as committed to making local real estate information transparent. 

In our first months and years, we wound up fighting some battles, finding this little website both loved and hated. Through a curious and unexpected series of circumstances, we went from a couple of readers, to a few readers, to dozens and then many hundreds. (Readers told MBC in our recent survey that, overwhelmingly, they heard about the site from family, friends or coworkers; thanks!)

Along the way these 3 years, we've learned how to find local real estate data and use it to tell a story. It's a constantly shifting, complex story about what's going on in our little corner of the universe... a couple of square miles of wonderful real estate west of Highway 1.

We've seen rallies and valleys, and we've speculated together on what might come next. It's an endlessly interesting work in progress.

Speaking of what's next:

This year, we'll pursue more technical improvements to the website. It's nice, but it could be bigger and better.

We'll also try to expand our coverage. As you know, MBC now covers only SFRs west of Sepulveda, leaving out a substantial amount of activity in our fair city, and in nearby areas of equal interest to many readers.

And we are brewing other changes big enough to require a lot more time to develop and, later, explain, than we've got here now.

When and if we make it to the end of 4 years – that's never a certainty with a hobbyist's blog – maybe we'll look back at these very words as a turning point.

OK, time for some cake!

Weekend Opens (3/13-3/14)

Springtime's great in MB. Watch for a warming trend later this week, like things weren't hot enough already in the local RE market.

Once again, we love the flood of new options for open-house gawking, shopping, or what have you.

Ah, and one of our old friends is back, and we've got a price now – see below.

Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link from the "Property Search Tools" pull-down menu in the top navigation bar.

As always, click any highlighted property address for more pics & details via Redfin.

Please report back here at MBC on any open houses you visit – what you like, what you don't like, etcetera.


Hill Section

We last saw 910 2nd on the market in Fall 2008. Back then, the home began at $2.895m and had a more or less immediate deal, but that fell through. (See "Down Hill.") It lingered for a while thereafter but eventually quit.

The home itself (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.) is a familiar design to those who know the architect, but it's no less interesting for that. No square lines here – bright, rounded rooms dominate. There are flashes of elegance.

You get some ocean peeks (views?), afforded by the location up along the hill, but busy 2nd St. is a liability.

The chances of this one reaching its goal price in 2008 may have been irretrievably damaged when next-door neighbor 918 2nd sold for $2.920m in Sept. 2008. That home was very similar in design, slightly newer and bigger (2000 build, 4br/4ba, 4300 sq. ft.), set on a lot nearly twice the size. So how could you get 2.9 for a home that's 20% smaller on half the land?

That was a tough question then, so the sellers quit. This year, they're starting at $2.599m, down almost $300k from their last list price, but is that adjustment enough?

910 2nd is open Sun. 1-4pm.

805 Duncan Place (5br/3ba, 4100 sq. ft.) offers plenty of house with a substantial location issue. How do you feel about living at the corner of an alley and a busy street (Ardmore in this case)?

The late-80s build has been freshened up inside with a modern kitchen and some inspired Craftsman style. Nice touches give it a warm, natural feel, and – how often do you get this: Fruit trees!?

As we often say, price can solve problems like location challenges. Point of reference: 808 Duncan Place (5br/5ba, 3525 sq. ft.), a newer and elegant home with some views, right across the alley, just sold for $2.088m in December.

805 Duncan starts at $1.995m. It's open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.


Sand Section

4419 Highland Ave. (4br/3ba, 1975 sq. ft.) is back, and we now have the first word of the new price: $1.189m.

As we noted in "'Gateway' Returning?" last week, this profoundly challenged home began new in June 2007 at $1.695m and slid, over about 16 months, to $1.265m before renting out in Fall 2008.

The current listing is pretty reserved, leading with the notion that $1.2m qualifies as "affordable" beach living. So the new writeup made us pine for the classic original listing description:

First thing that will win you over is the high ceilings, second, large open living room with stylish fireplace exquisite ocean and Malibu mountain views! Three levels of bliss!

Three levels of bliss, indeed. Now, there is a little gem in the new writeup: "effortless access to all local services." You know the location. You know the history. We'll let you consider the implications of that.

4419 Highland is open Sun. 2-4pm. Catch it on your way into, or out of, town.

456 27th (3br/3ba, 2625 sq. ft.) is one of 3 "Old World" style listings referenced here at MBC the other day (see "Kickin' It Old World").

Though the build is late-70s officially, the home's been updated in important ways, building on the original style. The kitchen is very inspired, modern, European.

It's not the free-flowing layout you'll find in newer construction, but it's great to have a distinctive home when there's so much that's cliché amid the bulk of other offerings.

Locationwise, as plateau streets go, 27th is one of the quietest. The home offers a bonus roof deck as well.

456 27th starts at $1.690m; open Sat. & Sun. 1-4pm.


Tree Section

2701 Maple is another inspired, old-style home featured in "Kickin' It Old World" here recently.

The listing says the home "won an architectural award when built" (in 1983). That makes sense: the style is a standout in the neighborhood.

Inside, Maple's bigger (4br/4ba, 4000 sq. ft.) than most Tree Section homes, with an yard that's typical for the area – a nice little patch of grass.

The home's been updated nicely, so don't worry too much about the mid-80s vintage or the even older styling. Starts at $1.825m.


2701 Maple is open Sun. 2-4pm.

592 31st (5br/5ba, 3750 sq. ft.) is near a block that always gets a shout-out here at MBC as one of the best in the Tree Section. Though it's west of Blanche – that dream block's cutoff – these downhill streets near Sand Dune Park are pretty sweet, too.

(Did we mention The Dune? Don't worry about The Dune.)

The house is an exquisite, newer (2006) custom build that drips comfort and home.

The street-to-alleystreet lot puts the garage out back, a great asset in an area where, too often, the garage factors into the façade.

At nearly $750/PSF, the sellers are seeking an ultra-premium price.

A couple of nearby homes of comparable size have closed near the mid-$500s in PPSF: 562 33rd (5br/4ba, 3550 sq. ft., 2003 Cape Cod, $2.0m) and 566 31st (5br/5ba, 3350 sq. ft., late-90s Spanish, $1.795m).  Sure, this one's got lots of extra, but how much?

592 31st starts at $2.799m. Open Sun. 2-4pm.

1408 Poinsettia (4br/3ba, 3100 sq. ft.) feels like more than the sum of its parts. On the surface it's a fairly typical, late-90s Mediterranean speckie. But with upgrades to the kitchen and living areas, plus a smashing sense of décor by the current owners, you may agree it's something special.

Purchased for $1.749m in Dec. 2007 – it sold quickly back then – 1408 Poinsettia is offered now for $1.699m, not much of a step down given all that's come to pass since then. Open Sat. & Sun. 2-4pm.

Front-Line Views of the Rally

A capsule history of the last few years of the local RE market might go something like this:

• 2006: Market turns strange
• 2007: Little rally peters out, downtrends take hold
• 2008: Sales volume bottoms, price drops get serious
• 2009: Horrid start, interesting ending

That brings us to 2010, which by any fair account has begun with a burst of optimism. 

As MBC has noted several times, it's not unusual to see homes selling in less than 30 days – at several price points. That feels new. (Or old, more like the bubble years.) We've even shared our surprise over the fact that some of the sales seemed to come on homes that were not particularly well-priced. (See "Spring's Intriguing Signs.")

You get regular updates here at MBC on which homes are selling and where. (Blake Roberts has his own new post on the past 30 days' sales activity.) But here we haven't yet offered much opinion on what's driving the sales activity, or what might extend this little rally, or put it at risk. 

We decided to ask a selection of local RE pros to give us their sense of things in MB this Spring. Below you'll see their replies. There are several points of agreement, some divergent views and some questions about what's next.

One note: The agents who replied did so knowing we would not be naming them – for better or worse, that's MBC's policy – and we offered no promise as to how much or how little of their remarks we would use. Even so, almost everyone we asked replied, and did so thoughtfully, for which your blog author is thankful. 

Also: Two quotes in the "state of the market" list below came from outside sources, which are noted.

Now check out what the folks in the industry say, and then let us know: What's your take?

STATE OF THE MARKET

• "[T]here is definite momentum in the market right now. I would not go as far as saying it is on fire, but certainly has some heat."
• "Personally I think this is a dicey market."
• "[S]ales have been painfully hot over the last 30 days." (blog post)
• "Market is robust right now, many buyers and limited product."
• "Folks the lights are back on for real estate in the south bay. Low inventory is causing multiple offers and buyers are back." (agent Tweet)
• "[Th]is is all about perception... this could be a short term 'bump' in the upward direction."
• "[I]nformed buyers realize that now is a good time to buy. Prices have corrected anywhere from 25%-35% and rates are low with 4.5% conforming and 5.5% non conforming."
• "[I]t is what I have been saying for months, the market bottomed out last year in 1^st quarter and has been bouncing back since then."
• "I think the market has stabilized."

ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE

• "I am actually having agents ask me when I will be looking at offers [on new listings]. That stopped in 2007."
• "The talk in office meetings, open houses, networking meetings, and in the car is that there are good solid qualified buyers out there looking for product."
• "I'm seeing properties priced above comps in many instances and selling with multiple offers."
• "[M]ultiple offers on many homes and buyers that don’t step up lose. 18 months ago that didn’t happen."
• "[A]ppraisers are no longer characterizing property valuation within a 'declining market' context."
• "I know a few agents are asking that the appraisal contingency be removed and some buyers are agreeing.  I am counseling my clients to not remove the appraisal contingency no matter how much they like the house."

WHAT'S DRIVING THE EARLY-2010 ACTIVITY?

• "I think lack of inventory and fear about rising interest rates is a big factor."
  
• "a backlog of buyers"
• "Buyers on the sidelines for the last couple years, waiting for the ‘bottom’ or just being conservative."
• "‘If this isn’t the bottom, then we are close and don’t want to miss it’ mentality."
• "Sellers that are on the market seem to be more in line with pricing homes where buyers are willing to offer. You can see that in the short days on market for many new listings that are quickly in escrow."
• "In Manhattan, if the property is good (i.e., priced 'right', location, shows well), it's gone."
• "[F]ear and bad news eventually pass and the markets begin to move again."
• "[This is] normally the buying season. Last couple of years have been up in the air – all bets were off."
• "The fact that buyers and agents are complaining daily about the lack of inventory is slowly changing the buyers' mindset and their willingness to step up and pay close to full price for fairly priced homes."

PRICE TRENDS

 

• "Prices appear to be bouncing along the bottom, consumer confidence is up a bit, and there are some fabulous opportunities."
• "[S]ome sale prices that appear to be higher than they would have sold for in late 2008 or early 2009 when the market was at its weakest point."
• "Prices are moving up at many price points."
• "I don't necessarily think that prices are starting to go up, but, conversely, I don't think they are dropping."
• "I don't see major declines but I do expect to see another 5%-10% by the end of the year.   I just don't believe the market has reached bottom yet."
• "I think it is good to buy now, try to get a 10% reduction from listing price if possible in order to have a safety net for ... [a] 10% possible reduction this year."

A FEW OPINIONS ON WHAT'S NEXT

• "My prediction is that things will continue to hum along at a nice clip until late summer, and we may see a little drag depending on news on interest rates."
• "[T]his will most likely be what I call a 'flat line' year, as we transition, hopefully, towards upward price movement as available inventory continues to drop."
• "The question remains, will this inventory balance stay where it is at, will an increase in interest drive more buyers to the market in fear of high rates, or will higher rates stop the market because of affordability?"

So, again, what do you see, think or expect?