April 2008 
There are 30 blog entries for April 2008.
Confidence Off a Cliff
Wednesday, April 30th, 2008 at 9:16pm. 208 Views, 0 Comments.
This morning's LA Times lays bare the shocking decline in consumer confidence since last Summer with this novel graphic. (Click to enlarge, or pick up your copy's front page.)Is there a relationship between consumer confidence and home-buying? Of course.
If you prefer a longer view, the second graph (courtesy of Market Harmonics) shows about 9 years' worth of data from the same source (Conference Board), though it is missing the newest figure.
Finally, a separate consumer survey released by the University of Michigan last week showed confidence at its lowest level in 26 years.
Also today, the U.S. economy grew by just 0.6% in Q1 – hey, maybe it's not a recession! – while inflation crept up and the Fed cut again.There's more to say but let's hit all of that…
Sand Happ'nin's
Wednesday, April 30th, 2008 at 4:09am. 131 Views, 0 Comments.
There's action in a few parts of the Sand Section. Not sales – no new ones since April 15 – but action worth a look.
First, as we go to press (?), SFR inventory in the Sand Section is at 40, the highest we've seen in a year-plus of public market tracking. That's already +5 over the figure at mid-month. (See this story for a graph.)
There's one less listing in that mix, though. The toe-dipping, market-testing, ultra-modern walkstreet home at 528 6th (pictured) has now called it quits. The listing was withdrawn and the signs are down.
This home hit the market in mid-November 2007 at $3.449m, fully $450k higher (+15%) than its Feb. 2006 purchase price ($2.995m). That was ambitious.
Though we know some people liked it, the market snubbed 528 6th. Its stark,…
First, as we go to press (?), SFR inventory in the Sand Section is at 40, the highest we've seen in a year-plus of public market tracking. That's already +5 over the figure at mid-month. (See this story for a graph.)
There's one less listing in that mix, though. The toe-dipping, market-testing, ultra-modern walkstreet home at 528 6th (pictured) has now called it quits. The listing was withdrawn and the signs are down.This home hit the market in mid-November 2007 at $3.449m, fully $450k higher (+15%) than its Feb. 2006 purchase price ($2.995m). That was ambitious.
Though we know some people liked it, the market snubbed 528 6th. Its stark,…
Newbies Slipping in the Trees
Monday, April 28th, 2008 at 5:52am. 133 Views, 0 Comments.
We're seeing the bar being lowered time and again as new homes sell in the Tree Section.New case in point: 2309 Pacific. This one hit the market last Spring (in May) at a time when a moribund market had hit an unexpected patch of new enthusiasm.
The listing began at what seemed like a lower-end price at the time for new construction: $2.299m. But the buyers that were out were picky, and virtually any excuse was good enough to pass on a home – a Pacific location being an obvious strike.
So 2309 Pacific hung around. And hung. Around.
It was staged, then un-staged. It was re-listed.
As the months passed, the action finally happened only after a recent, seemingly reluctant price chop to $2.099m. But oh, what action.
A buyer swooped in at that point and said…
Poll Results on 815 2nd
Monday, April 28th, 2008 at 4:54am. 135 Views, 0 Comments.
We've got word back now from the readership, and it's good news/bad news for the builder/sellers of 815 2nd, a new Cape Cod in the Hill Section.The good news: A third of voters in the poll (34%) think it's now priced within 10% of its likely final sale price or, in other words, its market value. Given that our polls run to the bearish side, that's still a good vote of confidence.
More good news: A solid majority (61%) think it's now priced within 15% of its market value.
Bad news: Very few (12%) think $4.5m or so is the right price.
The largest response, a healthy 37% plurality, thinks this one goes between $3.75m-$4.0m, which would mean the start price of $4.795m was high by nearly $1m.
Still, if a sale closes in that range, you have to imagine that the…
Sunday Opens (4/27)
Saturday, April 26th, 2008 at 4:48am. 133 Views, 0 Comments.
Here's the dilemma, and we invite you to play along at home.
Let's say you want to publish a weekly list of what's new and worth a look among local RE listings. And then, all at once, the mass of local sellers and agents refuses to provide fodder, er, subjects. There are literally zero new listings in the Hill Section or Sand Section that are posted as open in the Beach Reporter's online listings. So, what do you do?
At MBC, first, we shut down the "Weekend" version of the open house listings. We have a "Sunday" version instead, still an ample guide. Then we bit the bullet and re-listed (!) a few homes we've noted before. Finally, we partway wrote up a house for the Hills that's new but not open. Only the Tree Section offers truly new stuff.
It's strange to…
Let's say you want to publish a weekly list of what's new and worth a look among local RE listings. And then, all at once, the mass of local sellers and agents refuses to provide fodder, er, subjects. There are literally zero new listings in the Hill Section or Sand Section that are posted as open in the Beach Reporter's online listings. So, what do you do?
At MBC, first, we shut down the "Weekend" version of the open house listings. We have a "Sunday" version instead, still an ample guide. Then we bit the bullet and re-listed (!) a few homes we've noted before. Finally, we partway wrote up a house for the Hills that's new but not open. Only the Tree Section offers truly new stuff.
It's strange to…
Pricing Poll: 815 2nd
Thursday, April 24th, 2008 at 10:19pm. 125 Views, 0 Comments.
Besides Strand homes and west-of-Highland walkstreets, there's no luxury home market in MB quite like new estates in the Hill Section.
An intriguing newer entry into this market is 815 2nd (click for details via Redfin), which first hit the market in February at $4.795m. With a recent cut to $4.495m (-$300k/-6%), it's the least-expensive new home in the Hill Section – indeed, the listing now says it's the "best-priced new construction" in the sub-market.
The question is: What really is the right price for 815 2nd? Please vote in our newest pricing poll. Give us your opinion on what the final sale price is likely to be, and support your view in the comments on this story. We'll run the poll for 3 days, closing Sunday night at 7pm. (The home is open Sunday…
An intriguing newer entry into this market is 815 2nd (click for details via Redfin), which first hit the market in February at $4.795m. With a recent cut to $4.495m (-$300k/-6%), it's the least-expensive new home in the Hill Section – indeed, the listing now says it's the "best-priced new construction" in the sub-market.The question is: What really is the right price for 815 2nd? Please vote in our newest pricing poll. Give us your opinion on what the final sale price is likely to be, and support your view in the comments on this story. We'll run the poll for 3 days, closing Sunday night at 7pm. (The home is open Sunday…
MB Market Update for 4/15/08, Trees
Wednesday, April 23rd, 2008 at 4:05am. 115 Views, 0 Comments.
This is the third of 3 articles summarizing data in the MB Market Update spreadsheets for 4/15/08 (click to download), focusing this time on the Tree Section.
Total SFR inventory in the Tree Section as of 4/15/08 was 45, with 25 homes priced below $2m and 20 priced above $2m. (Those figures remain essentially the same at this writing, just +1 in the $2m+ range.)
Speaking of figures remaining level – there were 4 new listings in the Trees in this period, and 4 sales (new escrows). That's flat, or zero population growth, if you prefer.
Of the new offerings, 3 are all on busy streets:
Total SFR inventory in the Tree Section as of 4/15/08 was 45, with 25 homes priced below $2m and 20 priced above $2m. (Those figures remain essentially the same at this writing, just +1 in the $2m+ range.)
Speaking of figures remaining level – there were 4 new listings in the Trees in this period, and 4 sales (new escrows). That's flat, or zero population growth, if you prefer.
Of the new offerings, 3 are all on busy streets:
- A true "starter home" under $900k at 3301 N. Valley. For $875k, you get 2br/1ba plus another room that could be a bedroom, 1050 sq. ft. and a small (2500 sq. ft.) corner lot.
MB Market Update for 4/15/08, Sand
Monday, April 21st, 2008 at 4:57am. 141 Views, 0 Comments.
This is the second of 3 articles summarizing data in the MB Market Update spreadsheets for 4/15/08 (click to download), focusing this time on the Sand Section.
As we noted in our first story, with this edition, the Sand Section now spans 3 separate sheets, instead of 2, a change made necessary by growing inventory in the area.
At this time last year, SFR inventory in the Sand Section was less than half the April 15, 2008, figure – 17 last year, versus 35 this year.
Indeed, SFR inventory in the region peaked at 23 in the Summer months, and only hit 27 in mid-December, so it's now up substantially by any measure. (At this writing, SFR inventory is at 39.)
One factor behind ballooning inventory is, obviously, slipping demand. While that's true in all parts of MB,…
As we noted in our first story, with this edition, the Sand Section now spans 3 separate sheets, instead of 2, a change made necessary by growing inventory in the area.
At this time last year, SFR inventory in the Sand Section was less than half the April 15, 2008, figure – 17 last year, versus 35 this year.Indeed, SFR inventory in the region peaked at 23 in the Summer months, and only hit 27 in mid-December, so it's now up substantially by any measure. (At this writing, SFR inventory is at 39.)
One factor behind ballooning inventory is, obviously, slipping demand. While that's true in all parts of MB,…
MB Market Update for 4/15/08, Hills
Sunday, April 20th, 2008 at 10:52pm. 111 Views, 0 Comments.
The new MB Market Update spreadsheets are available: download the 4/15/08 update by clicking here, or at any time by using the link at the upper-right corner of the main MBC page. Information in this update closed April 15.
We now split up the discussions of our 3 areas west of Sepulveda into separate articles. You can download the complete spreadsheet now or at any time. Articles on the Sand Section and Tree Section will follow.
Total SFR inventory west of Sepulveda was at 96 on April 15, -1 from the end of March. How's that?, you may ask. Inventory dropping?
In this 2-week period, we saw 11 new listings and 9 sales (new escrows), so we would be +2 on inventory, but cancellations make up the difference (2 in the Trees, 1 in the Sand). That's a rough balance…
We now split up the discussions of our 3 areas west of Sepulveda into separate articles. You can download the complete spreadsheet now or at any time. Articles on the Sand Section and Tree Section will follow.
Total SFR inventory west of Sepulveda was at 96 on April 15, -1 from the end of March. How's that?, you may ask. Inventory dropping?
In this 2-week period, we saw 11 new listings and 9 sales (new escrows), so we would be +2 on inventory, but cancellations make up the difference (2 in the Trees, 1 in the Sand). That's a rough balance…
Weekend Opens (4/19-4/20)
Saturday, April 19th, 2008 at 3:42am. 174 Views, 0 Comments.
It should be a Sandy weekend if you're going out.
In the Hill Section, they refuse to replace the 3 recent sales with any new listings. In the Tree Section, the only new offering isn't totally new. But in the Sand, it's a storm. (See below.)
Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."
As always, click any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.
And be sure to tell them MBC sent you.
Hill Section
There's nothing new in the Hills, again, but there's a noteworthy price reduction on 815 2nd. This one shaved $300k off the top and is now at $4.495m for a 5br/5ba, 4625-sq.-ft. new home. That cut has got them calling this the "best-priced…
In the Hill Section, they refuse to replace the 3 recent sales with any new listings. In the Tree Section, the only new offering isn't totally new. But in the Sand, it's a storm. (See below.)
Click here for the complete list of opens published in the Beach Reporter, or at any time use the link in the right-hand column under "Prop. Search Tools."
As always, click any highlighted address below for more pics & details via Redfin.
And be sure to tell them MBC sent you.
Hill Section
There's nothing new in the Hills, again, but there's a noteworthy price reduction on 815 2nd. This one shaved $300k off the top and is now at $4.495m for a 5br/5ba, 4625-sq.-ft. new home. That cut has got them calling this the "best-priced…