2305 Pine Is Back, 3 Years Later

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, February 26th, 2010 at 4:44am.

Three years will give you some perspective.

The very first post here at MBC, back in March 2007, concerned 2305 Pine, a home that was for sale then, and is for sale again now.

Way-back-when, your blog author was aghast that 2305 Pine – and one other listing – had increased its price by $100k. That didn't seem like a smart way to sell a property in a market that appeared to be declining.

But you know what they say about predicting...

Your blog author's opinion about the market, in general, in that first post has proved to be right. We've seen prices slide 15-20% or more since MBC launched with a public statement that home prices locally were dropping.

But boy, were we wrong about 2305 Pine.

Pine began at $1.495m almost 3 years ago to the day (Feb. 23, 2007). The price hike to $1.595m took place March 5. (MBC's debut was 10 days later.)

MBC tut-tutted, and Pine lingered. The sellers largely missed the Great Spring Rally of 2007 – a last-gasp burst of enthusiasm in the local market before the slump of the last couple years.

The Pine listing hung around, in its price-elevated condition, till nearly July 4. And then came a deal a-knockin'. (See "A Happy Holiday on Pine.")

Now here's the surprise. 2305 Pine later closed for $1.570m, or $75k more than the start price.

Had the sellers panicked in the Spring that they'd made the wrong move, seeing everything else around them selling but not their home, they might have cut their price unnecessarily and left money on the table. (Isn't that every seller's fear?) Turns out that patience worked for them.

Now, here in 2010, here come the buyers who paid nearly $1.6m those 3 years ago. They're starting out at $1.449m, conceding – as anyone would have to – that the market has downshifted since they bought.

If they sell at that level, they would stand to lose about $200k, including 5% costs of sale. All in all, they'd still be better off than lots of 2006-2007 resales over the past year. (MBC's chart of resales of 2003-2006 acquisitions resold in 2009 shows 5 separate 2006 acquisitions that lost 20% or more.)

2305 Pine (3br/2ba, 2000 sq. ft.) enters a Tree Section market with fairly low inventory below $1.5m. There are buyers looking in that range who are frustrated by the options. Anything could happen.

Anyone want to advise them now to raise the price?
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