Arbolado Update

Posted by Dave Fratello on Sunday, July 1st, 2007 at 5:08am.

About 7 weeks ago, MBC noted that three homes in Arbolado Tract (aka the Arbolado Ct. Development) were all up for sale at the same time.

How are they faring?

Well, all three are still active listings. (So this can be a short update!) Two have made token reductions.

To refresh the details:
  • 1140 Laurel: 3br/3ba, 2550 sq. ft. – $1,599,000 (-$40k since our story)
  • 758 14th St.: 4br/3ba, 3050 sq. ft. – $1,860,000 (-$39k since our story)
  • 752 14th St.: 5br/3ba, 3550 sq. ft. – $2,150,000 (stable since our story)
Using two sales within the last year, MBC opined that:
  • 1140 Laurel should be between $1.42m-$1.5m
  • 758 14th St. should be between $1.7m-$1.8m
  • 752 14th St. should be between $1.9-$2.0m
Remember, those projections applied the per-square-foot price from two sales in '06 – one of them, actually, being 758 14th. They suggest last year's values. Frankly, buyers are wondering if they should even be paying last year's prices. The higher figure should be the utter peak price, since it's from a home in a better location (8 Arbolado) that sold quickly, $150k over asking. And yet all three remain priced above that level.

Someone (perchance the listing agent?) commented that 752 features $160k in remodel/upgrades, therefore making the price perfect. We could quibble, since this invites a direct comparison between the upgrades at 8 Arbolado and 752 14th, but let's skip it. The point is: that's the story the sellers are telling themselves, and that's why they've made no reductions.

At this time only 758 14th is long in the tooth – 120 DOM with a bogus re-list – while the others are like spring chickens at about 50 DOM each. Average DOM is close to 100 these days, so there's time for the newbies to keep trying to get their lucky prices.

Over at 758, though, a more brutal reckoning may be around the corner. 'Twould appear this is a forced sale of some kind, but keeping the price 9% above last summer's price simply draws the scorn of buyers who, as a group, don't think we've seen that much appreciation since last July. That may be what the sellers need, but that's not anyone else's problem.
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