Avg. DOM Creeping Up

Posted by Dave Fratello on Monday, October 1st, 2007 at 5:43am.

One indicator of the rather obvious stalling-out of the local RE market is a rise in average days on market (DOM) for active listings.

The increase for all of our subject region (see first chart, covering 5 mos. for MB west of Sepulveda) is not dramatic from August to September (to 111 DOM from 108), but from the end of July till now, it's more substantial (90 to 111).

Since the troubles began about a week after the end of July, a 23% increase in average DOM suggests a noteworthy slowdown.

Keep in mind, average DOM is a factor of stale listings combined with new listings. Sales usually help to drop the average DOM. There are 7 new listings in the latter half of September pushing DOM down, and some cancellations dropped the average further. Having very, very few sales in September helped to grow the DOM.

But that's why we average out data
– the normal course of events should keep a relative balance. The DOM increase tells us that the supply/demand equation is becoming imbalanced.

Looking at the end-of-month graph for September, the Hill Section stands out at 153 avg. DOM. Two reasons: The forever listing of 844 11th (now 520 DOM) and the reduction in active listings down to 9. But this is no huge statistical perversion. Almost all listings in the Hills are more than 100 days old.

The Sand Section's actives are at 92 DOM on average, with about 1/3rd of the listings pushing that figure upwards.

In the Trees, 110 DOM seems average. No surprise, perhaps, but the <$2m range is faring better, at 88 DOM, while the stagnant $2m+ range, with most of the inventory, is at 122 DOM and counting, despite 3 brand-new listings helpfully dragging that number down.


Obligatory note on methodology: We drew True DOM from the current Market Update spreadsheets (on MBC's computers, not yet published) and, as we have before, eliminated anomalous listings – two in this case, pre-completion listings: 4419 Highland and 644 33rd. Total DOM divided by number of listings = Avg. DOM. Simple.
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