Countdown: Sept. May Be Worse than August

Posted by Dave Fratello on Monday, September 24th, 2007 at 5:33am.

It's Monday, and MBC will be looking for new escrows to post. Was anyone busy this weekend?

Here's a reason to worry: We're going to need some new sales, a few at least, for September to be "better" than August.

In August, we saw 10 SFRs go into escrow west of Sepulveda, and stay. (See MBC's 5-month inventory report for that number, and previous months' pendings.) Right now, we're stuck at 7 new SFR escrows in September, none new since the 13th, by our records.

August was already poor compared to recent months – about half the recent rate of sales. You'll hear that August is always slow, but this year's slowdown had a clear, driving factor – the metastasizing mortgage mess.

MBC has noted before that there was already something strange about the September sales we have seen – they're all at the very high end. (Five of 7 homes sold were priced above $3m.) That fact suggests that a buyer boycott has already taken hold among mainstream listings below $2m. (That's where 30 of the current 73 listings are priced.)

MBC has some data we'll get to shortly to show that 2007 is already the worst year for sales in the last eight (2000-2007, inclusive) in our city, though it's only a step down from 2006 – so far.

Till then, we're eager for data to fill out September. Can someone help finish out the month with a bang?
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