Measuring Activity in the Trees at $2m+

Posted by Dave Fratello on Thursday, October 11th, 2007 at 4:48am.

There's now one MLS-listed property pending in the Tree Section in the $2m+ range, a difference of one from MBC's story yesterday, when we noted that there were zero.

The lucky one is none other than 1718 Pacific, which, at $4.299m, we thought might be overpriced. Whose opinion matters most? The buyers'.

Pacific now becomes part of the 38% of all listings in this market segment to sell since April.

Using the MBC wayback machine (ok, spreadsheets), we compiled this chart. (Click to enlarge.)

We started with all the homes active on or about April 1, 2007, and tracked what happened to them through Oct. 10. Our sample size is 61, of which a bit more than half (32) are currently active listings, 23 were pending or sold, and 6 canceled. Nerdy note: We count as "active" $2m+ listings two homes that began above $2m, but are now listed below $2m.

So how does this mix compare?

In the other Tree Section market segment (<$2m), the ratios are nearly reversed: 56% of listings are pending or sold, while just 33% remain active. (11% canceled.)

In the hot-hot-hot Sand Section, 63% of SFR listings have sold since April, while just 27% linger.

So in each case, the high-end Tree Section market compares unfavorably.

We don't know what's "normal" for any of these market segments. (We also invite feedback on this measure – do you find it useful?) We know that inventory was about 1/3 higher at this time last year (see "Inventory, Absorption & Balance"), while data suggest sales happened at a rate just a bit higher in 2006 than they're going this year (YTD), so it's possible these ratios held about the same across MB.

On the positive side, seeing that about 40% of listings in the $2m+ segment have sold is better news than expected. Demand is definitely pacing behind supply, but homes are selling, too.

There are several other factors to look at here, including DOM for these listings and the slowdown in sales since July. All for another day.
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