Open Forum (10/7- )

Posted by Dave Fratello on Wednesday, October 7th, 2009 at 5:00am.

Here are some statistics from a new report on local lot values:
  • The average lot value has fallen steadily for the past five quarters.
  • ... the average lot value has dropped to the lowest level since the first quarter of 2004.
  • The third-quarter value was down 17.4% when compared to the third quarter of 2008.... 
  • Average lot values peaked ... in the third quarter of 2006 — nearly a year before the median home price peaked in countywide indexes.
  • The average lot value fell 32% from the peak by this year’s third quarter.
The analyst who compiled the figures says:
I think the high end [has] started to see a drop the rest of the market saw two years ago. The prices could level off at ‘02 prices, and we’re at ‘03-’04 prices right now.
OK, sorry for a little misdirection above, but that's NOT a report on lot values in Manhattan Beach – it's on the even scarcer, and higher-priced dirt on Balboa Island in Newport Beach. (Yes, we pushed the definition of "local" a bit there.)

The full post from which these quotes were drawn, from the OC Register's "Lansner on Real Estate" blog, can be read here.

The observations and analysis from the Balboa report – crafted by an RE investment shop focused on the island – certainly seem to have echoes for MB. Agree? Don't?

It's not clear land values are in 2004 here, as in Balboa, and resales of SFRs are mostly 2004-2005, as we'll discuss in greater detail tomorrow here at MBC.

Still, there's something compelling about RE pros matter-of-factly projecting another couple years' worth of price drops – double digits, for sure – in a somewhat comparable market.


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As always, please use this "Open Forum" thread for news clips, off-topic questions & discussions of (virtually) any nature.

Heck, we led off here talking about Balboa Island – might as well have been Bainbridge.
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