Poll Results: 2401 John

Posted by Dave Fratello on Wednesday, August 26th, 2009 at 4:05am.

By late 2008, it was readily apparent that the whole spec-construction game in MB was nearly over for this RE cycle.

Boldly into those choppy seas dove the builders of 2401 John. They acquired the lot for $1.189m in October 2008, and about 9 months later have given birth to a sparkling new speckie.

It might be one of the last new homes to hit the market in the Tree Section for a while.

As MBC noted in detail in the story setting up our most recent pricing poll (see "Pricing Poll: 2401 John"), open-market sales of comparable new construction have been coming in at or below $1.9m for the past 6 months. Those sales have firmed up the trend away from $2m+ prices that had been the norm for several years prior.

But 2401 John starts at $2.499m. That's to be justified in part because it's built with more quality than some of your standard cookie-cutters, and partly because of a location the listing calls a "ten" (with which MBC disagreed).

So what might 2401 John fetch when the builders reel in a buyer?

Half of MBC readers voting in our poll thought the home could get $2.0m or more. That's a vote of confidence in the final product here, given the recent history of spec sales.

Few thought that $2.499m start price would be met, but a respectable 14% total thought the home would go for $2.250m or more.

Most of the $2.0m+ votes came in the range of $2.0m-$2.249m – 36% in all.

If half of those voting thought 2401 John would go above $2.0m, you know what that means: Half didn't.

The plurality in this poll, 29%, was made up of the most pessimistic voters – those who felt the final sale would be like the others in recent months, below $1.9m.

Hedging it a little bit: the 16% who thought the sale would be between $1.9m-$2.0m.

The color-coding in our pie chart above offers a somewhat simpler way to view the results, roughly in thirds:
  • One-third suggested $2.1m-$2.499m
  • One-third suggested $1.9m-$2.099m
  • Almost a third said below $1.9m
The listing is still fresh, and there could be plenty of time to watch this story play out. New homes that have sold recently in the Trees have logged about 100-150 days on market typically, with 300+ DOM not at all uncommon. John is trying to buck a pricing trend – maybe the DOM trend as well?
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