Poll Results: 2401 John
Posted on Wednesday, August 26th, 2009 at 4:05am.By late 2008, it was readily apparent that the whole spec-construction game in MB was nearly over for this RE cycle.
Boldly into those choppy seas dove the builders of 2401 John. They acquired the lot for $1.189m in October 2008, and about 9 months later have given birth to a sparkling new speckie.
It might be one of the last new homes to hit the market in the Tree Section for a while.
As MBC noted in detail in the story setting up our most recent pricing poll (see "Pricing Poll: 2401 John"), open-market sales of comparable new construction have been coming in at or below $1.9m for the past 6 months. Those sales have firmed up the trend away from $2m+ prices that had been the norm for several years prior.
But 2401 John starts at $2.499m. That's to be justified in part because it's built with more quality than some of your standard cookie-cutters, and partly because of a location the listing calls a "ten" (with which MBC disagreed).
So what might 2401 John fetch when the builders reel in a buyer?
Half of MBC readers voting in our poll thought the home could get $2.0m or more. That's a vote of confidence in the final product here, given the recent history of spec sales.
Few thought that $2.499m start price would be met, but a respectable 14% total thought the home would go for $2.250m or more.
Most of the $2.0m+ votes came in the range of $2.0m-$2.249m – 36% in all.
If half of those voting thought 2401 John would go above $2.0m, you know what that means: Half didn't.
The plurality in this poll, 29%, was made up of the most pessimistic voters – those who felt the final sale would be like the others in recent months, below $1.9m.
Hedging it a little bit: the 16% who thought the sale would be between $1.9m-$2.0m.
The color-coding in our pie chart above offers a somewhat simpler way to view the results, roughly in thirds:
Boldly into those choppy seas dove the builders of 2401 John. They acquired the lot for $1.189m in October 2008, and about 9 months later have given birth to a sparkling new speckie.It might be one of the last new homes to hit the market in the Tree Section for a while.
As MBC noted in detail in the story setting up our most recent pricing poll (see "Pricing Poll: 2401 John"), open-market sales of comparable new construction have been coming in at or below $1.9m for the past 6 months. Those sales have firmed up the trend away from $2m+ prices that had been the norm for several years prior.
But 2401 John starts at $2.499m. That's to be justified in part because it's built with more quality than some of your standard cookie-cutters, and partly because of a location the listing calls a "ten" (with which MBC disagreed).
So what might 2401 John fetch when the builders reel in a buyer?
Half of MBC readers voting in our poll thought the home could get $2.0m or more. That's a vote of confidence in the final product here, given the recent history of spec sales.Few thought that $2.499m start price would be met, but a respectable 14% total thought the home would go for $2.250m or more.
Most of the $2.0m+ votes came in the range of $2.0m-$2.249m – 36% in all.
If half of those voting thought 2401 John would go above $2.0m, you know what that means: Half didn't.
The plurality in this poll, 29%, was made up of the most pessimistic voters – those who felt the final sale would be like the others in recent months, below $1.9m.
Hedging it a little bit: the 16% who thought the sale would be between $1.9m-$2.0m.
The color-coding in our pie chart above offers a somewhat simpler way to view the results, roughly in thirds:
- One-third suggested $2.1m-$2.499m
- One-third suggested $1.9m-$2.099m
- Almost a third said below $1.9m
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