It's a strange time of year for MBC pricing polls.
Most listings on which we have gotten reader input through our polls remain for sale months and months later. Spring and Summer came and went with most untouched. So we haven't got much info to use to judge the predictive powers of the group that's voting.
And then there's the phenomenon of dropouts. As we noted 2 weeks ago in "Recent Dropouts
," it seems the most common activity in the local RE market at this moment is listings canceling.
Monday, that happened with 2 of the 3 listings we featured in our (apparently uninspiring) recent poll, "Who'll Be First to $6m?
" (See the results story
.) Both 114 N. Poinsettia
and 923 1st
are currently out of action, though 1st St. has a history of bogus re-lists. It wouldn't surprise us to see both back after Labor Day.
Now, we're thinking maybe this time it's different. 700 35th
, a lovely Tree Section listing that's been around just 2 months (listing says 1 month due to a bogus re-list),
seems like one that could move from toe-dipper to serious seller this Fall.
The home has such inherent charms, you can imagine someone willfully "overpaying" by a bit if the sellers will adjust somewhat to meet the market. (See the original story for much more on the home
.)So, at what price should 700 35th sell?
Voters in the MBC poll were pretty bearish. A plurality (34%
) said the home will go for $2.2m or less.
If we combine the two price ranges above that, we see that 42%
believed the sale price would be between $2.2m-$2.5m,
with the bulk of those (25%
) suggesting the lower end of that spectrum – $2.2m-$2.4m.
Keep in mind that 700 35th was a purchased at the peak of this submarket in July 2006 for $2,482,500
. Very few people voting in this poll thought the sellers would break even in 2008. The current listing price, $2.649m
, was viewed as correct (within 5%) by just 9%
of voters. Substantially more (15%
) thought the home simply would not sell.
The market in the Trees has changed a lot since the current owners bought 700 35th, with great new homes hovering near $2.3m, and plenty of buyer options. Objectively, the price pressure is downward. Subjectively, our voters think it's way downward.