Poll Results: Twins in the Trees

Posted by Dave Fratello on Wednesday, March 12th, 2008 at 4:36am.

We've run a few pricing polls now, but we haven't yet seen results quite like we got regarding The Twins in the Trees (3307 and 3309 Poinsettia). (Click any address for details via Redfin.)

In this case, a very small number of voters said the homes were well-priced, and that tiny fraction (4%) nearly equaled the number saying the homes won't sell at all. (The latter position being a bit of a stretch, since these are newly built homes that can be expected to sell, somehow.)

Add to that the fact that 75% of those who thought the homes would sell believed that the start prices are at least 10% too high. Nearly half thought the final prices would be in the $2.2m-$2.5m range – between $300k-$600k below the ambitious start prices of $2.795m.

Here at MBC, when we saw the start prices on these two new homes, one of the first similar cases that came to mind was 1821 Walnut. It's a comparably sized new home that hit the market in May 2007 with its own ambitious start price: $2.750m. For quite a while the price lingered near $2.6m, but now it's down to $2.495m – pretty much the same fall readers expect for The Twins.

We'll also note that two other new homes at 27th/Palm are nearly ready; one is on the market (2705 Palm at $2.699mno pics in the listing). It's a different builder on those two, but there may be an opportunity to watch the twin pricing on those as well. (It is to be hoped that those two are not identical homes with different finishes, like The Twins covered in this poll.)

A final note: We haven't yet seen a home close escrow that had been featured in a pricing poll, but there's progress. One of 2 homes featured in a story about the west-of-Highland premium is in escrow, and 742 27th is in its second escrow of the week now. On the latter, the vast majority of voters thought the price would come in below $1.9m, but that wasn't true of the first deal. We'll see.
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