Pricing Poll: Twins in the Trees

Posted by Dave Fratello on Sunday, March 9th, 2008 at 6:10am.

Two brand-new homes in the Tree Section are next-door neighbors built by the same developer, sharing a layout if not home styles, and sized and priced exactly the same from Day One.

They're the Twins in the Trees, 3307 Poinsettia and 3309 Poinsettia (first pic – click either address for more pics & details via Redfin.)

The homes are lovely and tend to leave visitors semi-rhapsodic. And yet it's the start prices that are really dropping jaws to the floor.

Both homes are 5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft. – pretty much the max on 4640 sq. ft. lots – and both start at $2.795m.

Both are open Sunday 1-4pm. Why not drop by, comment here and then vote in the pricing poll? (Oh, and if you do drop in Sunday, tell them MBC sent you.)

Note that we're asking what you think the final sale price of "the Twins" will be, and yet, it's obvious that they could each sell for very different prices. That might just mean that more voters have an argument that they were correct when the dust settles.

We'll run the voting here through Tuesday night, 7pm.

Meanwhile, here are some more details that might be relevant to determining the right prices for The Twins...

As we've noted before (see the MB Market Update for 2/29/08), both homes start at $860/PSFvery high compared with most Tree Section new-construction sales over the last 6 months. (There were 2 sales at higher PPSFs in A locations – see the update story linked just above.)

The most recent newbie to go into escrow was 2100 Flournoy (4br/5ba, 3600 sq. ft.) at a rumored price of $2.750m. That's $764/PSF for a location that's more isolated and further from the refinery than The Twins, but maybe a bit too close to Ardmore.

Taking just the Flournoy PPSF to The Twins, we get a projected value of $2.483m for each, -$312k/-11% from the start prices. Then you need to start adjusting (up or down) for the intangibles.

Another reference point is the much larger 927 27th, which offered 5br/6ba and 4400 sq. ft. and netted $3.150m ($716/PSF). (Same builder as the Twins, we're told.) The Twins at this PPSF would be priced at $2.327m, another $150k/5% off the start.

Here's what really strikes us. In the past 6 months – a time period which obviously encompasses the post-August mortgage meltdown, the cliff-drop in sales rates, and the blossoming of talk of possible recession into "stagflation" – just 5 new homes have sold in the Trees with price tags starting with a 2. And of those 5 sales, here were the final prices:
  • $2.075m
  • $2.100m
  • $2.199m
  • $2.200m
  • $2.225m
There are currently 14 active new SFRs in the Tree Section with prices that start above $2.225m, including the Twins. Where will they all end up? Most specifically, please vote on where you think the Twins will close.


Closing Thoughts

We recognize that of the 3 previous pricing polls, 2 already have been in the Tree Section. Frankly this is where the market action is most unsettled. But don't worry, we've got a Hill Section offering coming up soon.

Also, we note that 742 27th, subject of one of those prior polls, is now back on market.
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