A Quick Catalogue of (Possible) Losers

Posted by Dave Fratello on Sunday, September 9th, 2007 at 6:45am.

This is a grim subject. But the fact is, people are losing money selling homes in Manhattan Beach, or, more precisely, are preparing themselves to do so. That's news because, well, it's new.

Consider some of the frequent travelers on MBC:
  • 758 14th – paid $1.695m in July '06; listed now at $1.75m; loss with 6% cost of sale = $50k.
  • 512 John – paid $4.075m in Feb. '07; listed now at $3.99m; loss with 6% cost of sale = $316k.
  • 2812 Elm – paid $1.584m in June '05; listed now at $1.649m; loss with 6% cost of sale = $35k.
  • 601 Larsson – paid $2.0m in Sept. '05; listed now at $1.999m; loss with 6% cost of sale = $121k (this is a short sale; the lender gets hit).
  • 714 MBB – paid $1.355m in April '06; listed now at $1.199m; loss with 6% cost of sale = $228k.
On the bubble – here we mean homes that might well close for a loss, but we don't have enough info yet:
  • 3009 Highland/"232 30th Pl." – paid $1.225m in July '05; listed at $1.329m; gain with 6% cost of sale = $24k; but isn't that "profit" at risk given long DOM?
  • 3200 Elm could make the list; sellers paid right around $1.9m in March 2005; sought about the same at $1.949m this Summer and quickly went into escrow; will need the original purchase price to run the numbers when this escrow closes.
There are more, but you may see a pattern.

First, the purchases were (perhaps obviously) all quite recent, within 2 years. Maybe all that really tells us is that the crazy runup is over. (Not news.)

Second, none of these have sold yet. They could have further to drop.

Third, though we'll re-check this, we don't yet see a net-loss sale in MB west of Sepulveda in the Spring and Summer 0f 2007. Several sellers are angling to be the first, but we haven't seen a net-loss scenario play out yet.


UPDATE: Some math was fixed and one home added to the list since the original post.
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