Sales for Eight Mays in MB

Posted by Dave Fratello on Tuesday, June 19th, 2007 at 5:38am.

MBC is all about data, and how could you not be intrigued by this post at Kaye Thomas' blog?

Kaye tried to gauge whether we had a good or bad May this year based on 8 years' worth of data. MBC has set her numbers to music – well, graphics:


This time period covers much of the recent up-cycle.

Ain't it interesting how the "wow" period, with the greatest mix of optimism and trading-up and flipping, was 2002-03? Let's not draw too many conclusions from one month, though.

As for May 2007 – that's no big slump we're looking at.

What is an "average" May?

Two answers: Based on the full eight-year data set here, it's one with 42 sales. If we take out the outlier year (2002) and the current year to gauge "normal" conditions, it's 40.

Given those averages, 33 is a drop of 18-24% in sales, but beware small samples. At least we can say that's much better than the SoCal average – DataQuick reported that sales slipped 34% last month (YoY) and hit the lowest levels in 12 years. Not us!

Keep in mind this is data for all SFRs in Manhattan Beach 90266. And we're looking at closings in May, meaning we're really measuring buy/sell decisions made in March and April this year.

Of the 33 sales recorded in May, MBC's Market Updates recorded details on 20 sales west of Sepulveda (our focus), or 61%.

Would it be great to have data from the pre-2000 period? Of course. That would include some sluggish times to use for comparison. We're working on it.
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