Sales in Those 'Other' Areas

Posted by Dave Fratello on Wednesday, August 11th, 2010 at 2:44pm.

Just yesterday we took a look at 5 years' worth of sales data (2006-2010) for SFRs in our customary 3 subregions west of Sepulveda.

How about something new?

Here we'll pore over data on Sand Section townhomes and sales east of Hwy. 1. These data will cover the same period, Jan. 1-July 31, or 7 months, for each year, as we covered in the prior post.

Starting out down by the beach, you may recognize the basic pattern for townhome and condo sales in the Sand. It's got much the same shape as MB SFR sales for the same period. (See "Giving '07 A Run So Far.")

As with MB overall, the peak year was 2006, with a slight dropoff in 2007.

However, while MB SFRs sales dropped about one-third in 2008-09 from 2007 levels, beach-adjacent townhome sales fell by 55%, stuck at 18 sales each year – 1.5 per month.

Dealing with small numbers makes it possible to say something very cheery about 2010: Sales were up this year by 50%, going up 9 sales from 18 to 27.

For comparison, SFR sales in the 3 regions west of Sepulveda were up 40% this year over last.

Now let's make one of our rare excursions east of Sepulveda. We're looking at ALL sales in the area, including SFRs, THs and condos, and including Manhattan Village. It's everything east of the highway.

Here the pattern isn't quite the same.

Someone forgot to ring the bell last year. While the rest of MB was in the doldrums, East MB had a better 2009 than a 2008.

Moreover, 2007 was the peak year among these 5 years we've selected, instead of 2006. That was just by 8 sales, but a peak nonetheless. For comparison, the 3 subregions west of Sepulveda had 7 more SFR sales in 2006 than in 2007.

But 2010 isn't stacking up so well right now. At 58 total sales to date (as of July 31), East Manhattan is seeing paltry 2008 numbers, off pace from its improvement in 2009 and down 46% from 2007's peak.

Is our little wannabe recovery skipping the eastern region?

Some readers have been asking for price data to go along with sales pace. A fair question, but that's a data challenge for a later post.
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