Shadow Inventory

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, December 28th, 2007 at 4:36am.

As we've mentioned from time to time, the holiday season is so slow, agents will often advise sellers to drop out a while if they can.

Maybe take some of that time to attend to issues you know your home has (or that you have) so you can come back on the market fresh and new later.

If you take your home off the MLS for 60 days or more, you can even pull a legit re-list, re-starting the DOM clock with no one carping about how you're trying to mislead potential buyers.

MBC has done a quick analysis of homes that canceled off the MLS in the last 6-8 weeks, partly to gauge how much shadow inventory we might have.

We'll look at 22 canceled (or expired) listings and opine about each listing's relative likelihood to return to the market in 2008. We use a scale of 1-5, with 1 being not likely to return, and 5 being "bet on it."

As always, these opinions are informed, but subject to error, so feel free to correct MBC if we've pegged one or more wrong. If you need more detail on any specific home, please download the MB Market Update spreadsheets.


Hill Section

916 9th– One of MBC's favorite family homes, in an off-the-beaten-path location. Last at $2.9m after 5 months on market. Likelihood to return: 3.

869 3rd – Modern home purchased for $2.4m just 3+ years ago by two local agents and put up for $3.995m in July. Marketed for about 4 months, last at $3.899m. Likelihood to return: 4.

230 Anderson – Giant home (6200 sq. ft.) with a seller in no hurry; lingered 6 months, mostly at $6,988,000. Likelihood to return: 4.

601 Larsson – A home in foreclosure repeatedly and listed as a short sale at $1.899m until recently. Could be headed to auction and an REO sale in 2008. Likelihood to return: 5.


Sand Section

453 36th – An overpriced lot sale in a pretty forgettable part of town. Sellers sought $1.8m consistently for 5 months. Likelihood to return: 4.

3505 Alma – This 3br/3ba, 1425 sq. ft. home was on offer just two weeks at $1.5m. Likelihood to return: 1.

532 6th – One of 3 walkstreet homes (all on 6th) to come up, this one canceled after less than 2 full weeks on the market. Priced at $2.7m. Likelihood to return: 1.

128 5th – A smallish (1700 sq. ft.) home on a premium lot, listed at $3,975,000 for 3+ weeks. Likelihood to return: 2.

228 29th Pl – A supercool new home with 4br/4ba and 2450 sq. ft., listed for 4 months, last at $2,729,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

505 3rd – A dated home built out to every inch of a 2700 sq. ft. lot, listed for 6 months at $1,949,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

320 Rosecrans – A remodel in progress (becoming a duplex), 1 door east of El Tarasco, listed 4 months, last at $1,999,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

616 Manhattan Ave. – A dated home with some quirks but a good location, this one spent a little more than 2 months at $1.999m. Likelihood to return: 5.


Tree Section

758 14th – This Arbolado Ct. home (last at $1.699m) was on the market 8 months. Canceled without a sale; was also for rent. Likelihood to return: 2.

3200 Pacific – One of the least-aggressively-priced homes in the Trees for almost 2 years now; began in '06 at $3.9m, worked its way down to $3.2m in 2007. Likelihood to return: 4.

3212 Palm – A pleasant enough 4br/3ba, 2300 sq. ft. home that hung around just 6 weeks at $1.585m, obviously high. Likelihood to return: 2.

616 19th – An overpriced lot sale, this one began at $2.1m and was down $300k when it canceled and a "for rent" sign went out. Likelihood to return: 4.

2404 Palm – A strange layout, great location. Home was vacant, marketed 2 months, last at $1.749m. Likelihood to return: 5.

3013 Oak – Smallish cottage just south of Ardmore (quiet), accrued 76 CDOM with stops and starts and a failed escrow, last at $1,249,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

3517 Elm – Cute remodel that spent almost 2 month on market just before the holidays, last at $1,349,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

2822 Ardmore – We stopped the clock on this dated cottage at 4 months, but it’s still got a sign out. Bumped its price up twice to $1,399,000. Likelihood to return: 5.

1829 Poinsettia – Maximally tricked-out cottage (3br/2ba, 1450 sq. ft.) shot the moon at $1.785m, flattened out at $1,599,000 and lingered 5 1/2 months. Likelihood to return: 4.

601 35th – New construction on market just over a month at $2.549m, pre-completion. Likelihood to return: 5.


At the end of this analysis, we're guessing that 17 of the 22 cancellations will be back, and if we discount that a bit, you can assume we've got more than a dozen listings waiting in the shadows now.

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UPDATE: 117 Highland was removed from the list of Sand Section cancellations, on information that it has sold. The numbers were updated. Highland is the 3rd listing in recent weeks to sell and be canceled rather than get posted as being in escrow.
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