Super Flood?

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, February 5th, 2010 at 4:39am.

It's already time for another update on inventory west of Sepulveda.

In the first 4 days of February, there have been 10 new SFR listings (just as of this writing), bringing inventory quickly over 80. (If you regularly track activity with Redfin's MB page, you've seen this daily burst yourself.)

These include:
  • 3 new listings in the Hill Section;
  • 3 in the Sand; and
  • 4 in the Trees.
That, again, is over 4 days.

That informal rule about how inventory tends to climb at around the time of the Super Bowl is starting to look about right. In fact, this is starting to look like a super flood.


It's also news that only one of this week's new listings could be said to be returning from a holiday-season break (1018 2nd, which has been off since early October and has switched agents). Pausing on the sidelines right now are some number of recent listings poised to come back soon, and another group of would-be sellers who have been advised to wait till just a bit later this month.

A few samples of the new offerings:
  • 505 N. Dianthus (5br/4ba, 4650 sq. ft.) (pictured), a glorious, newer (2002) home with city views to the north. It's also vacant and offered for $2.999m, or +$874k/+41% over its April 2003 acquisition price.

  • 3104 Poinsettia, a major fixer/teardown adjacent to one of the very sweetest blocks in the Trees north of Valley. (See "The Street Where Listings Don't Last," which focuses on the section of 31st from Valley to 31st.) It's offered at $1.050m, which they would have called cheap a few years ago. Just a few doors down, 3009 Poinsettia went as a lot sale for $1.190m in Aug. 2008.
  • 2708 Pacific (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.), an early-90s home that has aged well thanks to updates, asking $1.849m.
  • 3104 Maple (5br/4ba, 3350 sq. ft.), a newer (2006) build bought just 2 1/2 years ago in June 2007 at $2.490m, now offered back to the public at $2.349m. (No pics in the listing as of this writing.)
These new listings are adding to a burst of 24 new listings last month. For the whole month of January, inventory grew in each region by:
  • 8 in the Hills;
  • 3 in the Sand; and
  • 13 in the Trees.
So you see a real swell building in the 'burbs. We haven't yet written up the Tree Section activity for the second half of January, but you can use these links to check out the Actives Under $1.5m for that period, Actives Above $1.5m and Solds. (New listings are prominent in green.)

No doubt, we ended 2009 with a tentative balance taking shape. Inventory began the year very high, but got worked off over the months.

Here in 2010, we've seen some impact of what they call "pent-up demand" from some quick sales early in the year. But that sense of balance could be upset if this pace continues after the Saints go marching in.
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