Inventory Almost Perfectly Average Right Now

We overheard a conversation recently where a local agent stated that local home inventory was pretty high these days. 

Is it?

In fact, it's almost perfectly average right now. 

As it often the case, it depends on what you use for comparison.

Let's start with big-picture data. 

Inventory as of Aug. 31 was at 84 listings citywide on the MLS in Manhattan Beach.

If we average out all of the 12 years that came before, that comes to 83 listings for Aug. 31.

That helpful dotted line on the chart guides the eye. 

Not only is 84 listings almost precisely average, this year is also pretty much the only year that actually was average.

Last year was close (75 listings as of Aug. 31),  and 2018 was almost close (98), but all other years were at least 17 listings higher or lower than average. 

In this way, 2025 stands out as an average year that was so average, no other year even looked to be as close to average as this one.

So, not really "high."

True, throughout 2025, we have "celebrated" a bit as we saw increases in inventory that we have seen over the two-plus years prior. For instance, this May post talks about our market having the highest inventory since 2020. 

Yet, while talking about "higher" inventory as part and parcel of a more "normal" market, we were careful to say that it did not yet seem that there was a "surplus" of inventory, indicating a sluggish market. 

Of course, broad generalizations about the market are of only so much value. Real estate is local. 

So how about inventory by area? 

Turns out, that's pretty average, too. 

Once again, we averaged out the 12 years that came before this year (2013-24). We determined the percentage of inventory by section of town, averaged across all that time. 

Almost half (45%) of inventory was typically in the Sand Section, while 19% was in the Tree Section, almost a quarter (24%) was in East Manhattan (including Manhattan Village), and 12% was in the Hill Section.

And 2025?

Very, very close to average!

You see the tiniest shifts, with a bit less inventory in the Sand Section, slightly more on the east side.

Only a year ago, the mix looked a bit different. The Sand Section was at 49%, while the Tree and Hill sections were down a total of 7%.

We can see occasional "bulges" in the data, where Sand Section inventory hit or exceeded 50% of available homes. 

And once in a while, the Tree Section will climb to 25-30% of inventory, but not often.

The short of it all: This is not a "high inventory" year, although certainly there have been more homes for sale than in recent years.

We've noted here more than once that we have more "voluntary" sellers this year than ever since 2022. The feeling is that people have stopped "boycotting" the idea of selling and have been offering their homes in order to make other plans work for them. This felt like a qualitative change in the market, in addition to one of quantity. 

And mostly, buyers have been there to meet sellers where they were at.

Q4 is approaching...