Less Uncertainty Seems... Better?

Ever since the covid-19 pandemic upended lives, locked people in their houses and created weird, factional debates about science, the real estate market has been on a wild and bumpy ride. 

Is it all kind of ending now? Is there a new sort of focus and clarity emerging?

Will this help the market generally to function better?

That's how it's starting to feel right now.

Dial it back a bit. We can still (kinda?) remember how, in mid-2020, people wanted to see, buy and sell houses, but there were odd procedures involved. People wanted to get out, but also didn't want to get sick.

Suddenly, there was a blistering wave of buying and selling – lasting throughout the next 2 years. That was followed by something of a crash (not in prices!) after interest rates spiked in May 2022.

For 30 months since then, the market has been coasting – or maybe "drifting" is the better analogy.

A year ago, new uncertainty came into real estate, as the industry lost a big lawsuit that challenged commission practices.

To say that lawsuit created "uncertainty" surely understates things. But then, hope emerged in the form of a "global" settlement of related litigation. The real estate business would change its practices dramatically to – at a minimum – make buyer-agency commissions more transparent.

Even as the rules became clearer, forms were adapted, and MLSes changed practices this Summer, there remained some kind of additional uncertainty out there.

It was almost unspoken.

It had to do with the presidential election. 

Only now that it's over can we see how election anxiety may have been holding people back. And, given how polarized things seem to be, no one had ever really wanted to talk about it.

You can tell what people were wondering about. Would the election result bring higher taxes, massive de-regulation, assessments on "unrealized capital gains," new commitments to home-building and assistance with buying, civil strife, huge new tariffs?

And how might the tentatively recovering economy respond to the outcome?

Folks, we gotta tell you: We didn't really think "election anxiety" was a thing. But then, in the 3-4 days after the election, our office became busier than we'd been in months. (We're always working, but we don't always have the same high volume of incoming calls, showing requests, etc.)

In the three weeks since, same story. There's a liveliness to the market. There's a spring in people's step.

We don't really think this is all because people loved the presidential election result. But people do seem glad that it's over.

And now the real estate industry has another burst of good news.

That litigation settlement, which already has changed industry practices, just received final approval on Tuesday. There was a chance that it could have been changed, overturned, or put off for some kind of re-consideration or re-negotiation. The US Department of Justice had been threatening to weigh in and maybe scramble things.

What if we'd all been wasting months of time by revising forms and practices, only to have someone throw out the chessboard and say "start over"?

But no. The litigation at hand is over and done.

These days, homes that should sell are now selling. Even in November! (We just put a big one under contract, but we're not alone.)

People are looking ahead to next year like maybe it won't be bad.

Let's call it plainly: The market, after 2 1/2 years of middling activity, seems overdue for a "good year" next year.

We'll see. There are always threats aplenty to the normal course of business.

For today, we'll give thanks for what may be the end of several strains of uncertainty.

Here's to a great holiday season for you and yours.

And maybe one more toast in hopes for a 2025 that's just a little better than what came before.