There were some iffy moments for the Manhattan Beach real estate market in the middle of 2024.
After a solid Q1, this year's sales pace fell behind that of woeful 2023 for much of Q2 and Q3.
There was NO WAY that home sales in 2024 would be lower than the historic ebb of 2023, right?
Worry not.
Some weeks ago, in mid-October, we wrote of a "convincing surge for 4th-quarter sales" showing up in the pending-sales data.
Now that "surge" has borne fruit. There is no doubt at all that 2024's year-end total sales will surpass 2023's.
By the end of November, at 284 sales YTD, the city was up 49 sales over the same point in 2023, and not too far behind 2022, which had a robust Spring market before rate hikes ground the market to a near-halt.
For the record, 2024 shot past the total number of sales for all of 2023 – just 254 in total – back during the last week of October.
These are still low very sales totals, all of these past three years!
Look back to a couple of years renowned as the doldrums, 2008 and 2009, and you see that 2022-24 sales totals for the first 11 months are much lower.
Crash year 2008 saw 316 home sales from Jan. 1-Nov. 30, while 2009 had 324. Both years were at least 10% higher than this year.
Every other year in our 10-year chart above was in the mid-to-high 300s, with the exception of rocking 2021, which had almost hit 500 by this time of year.
We looked back to a similar update that we published here at midyear. At that time, sales totals for Jan. 1-June 30 were about 15% above the pace for 2023. Right now, 2024 is outpacing '23 by 21%.
We also took a look at pending sales for November. (Our office put a big one on the board in November, 819 11th in the Hill Section, last at $6.399M.)
This year performed much better than November of 2022 or '23. That's interesting, because the pace for October was essentially identical to those two prior years.
Turns out, the biggest "surge" months recently were August, September and November of 2024, while October was more typical.
It might be interesting to see if 2024 can surpass 2022's sales totals. That year saw 322 total closings by year-end.
Today, with 285 closings through Dec. 3 and 24 pending escrows, it seems like 2024 is fated to fall about a dozen sales short of '22. But bring us those cash buyers with quick closings! Maybe we can make a run!
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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 11/30/24:
> 58 active listings as of 11/30/24 (-19 from 11/15/24)
> 45 SFRs (-16)
> 13 THs (-3)
See the Inventory list as of 11/30/24 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.
Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:
> Tree Section: 8 actives (-4)
> Sand Section: 27 actives (-5)
> Hill Section: 6 actives (-2)
> East MB: 18 actives (-7)
We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.
Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 11/30/24".
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
