Another year of Manhattan Beach real estate is officially in the books, and the numbers do not disappoint. We'll report out some of the main figures, and begin to ask the questions that we'll all have about where things go from here.
A big headline: The median home price jumped 10% in 2025, landing at a record‑setting $3.325M.
That’s more than double the median back in 2008 – ancient history in market years, perhaps, but still quite a climb within the space of memory.
This year’s finish-line number is 6% above the previous high of $3.137M set in 2022. Prices were actually pretty steady for most of 2025 after an initial bump in January. (See this data post for more.)
While this year's high is impressive, prices don’t always march upward forever. Why, it seems like only yesterday, when there was an 11% dip in median prices, from 2022 to 2023. That curveball temporarily wiped out some gains from the pandemic-fueled price bubble.
So the challenge is on: Has the new highest-ever median price got staying power this time?
As a quick refresher on terms: the median price marks the midpoint of all sales in the market for the year. Half the homes sold for more, half for less. It’s not an average, but the figure is definitely influenced by which types of homes are changing hands. The median goes up if larger, pricier homes are trading.
What does the median mean?
Back in early December, when the median was slightly higher, at $3.350M, we shared a nice set of diverse homes around town that all sold for that exact price – the "median homes" of the year to date (see that post here). That was a fun look to help understand what the median represents, and worth another look now.
Q4 Was the Slowest of 2025
There is a pattern of seasonality that we expect here for real estate sales.
It's normally quieter early in the year, and again late in the year.
Due to the market impact of the tragic LA County wildfires, however, 2025 saw an uncommonly, wildly busy January and first quarter. Quite literally, inventory was accelerated from our "Spring" market and put out early to meet the rush of demand.
As a result, we saw a Q1 that was among the busiest Q1s ever seen for closed sales, with 87. (See, for instance, "January Sales 'Blew the Top Off.'")
It sounds crazy to say this, but as the year unfolded after, no other quarter of 2025 matched Q1 for closed sales. This simply never happens.
Our big chart above shows you sales by quarter for the last 7 years, which includes one pre-pandemic year (2019), a few that were heavily influenced by pandemic-era buying (2020-22), and some quieter times after.
Focus in on just the last 4 years, and we see some notable patterns.
We highlighted 2022-23 first for what we felt were "typical" patterns, with the Spring and Summer periods (Q2-Q3) rising above the other quarters, having the most robust sales totals. Then Q1 and Q4 pale next to those quarters.
That's what we expect each year, but don't always get.
Now look at 2024: Each quarter saw more sales than the prior quarter.
That's consistent with all our reporting from Summer 2024 onward, that the market was both "recovering" and gathering momentum at the time.
Then 2025 reverses. (Uh-oh.)
After that uncommonly busy Q1, each quarter saw fewer sales than the prior quarter.
That looks like a market that was accelerating, then decelerated.
The data are showing you some things that we all felt out there in the market. While there were plenty of sales throughout Summer and Fall, even a surge in November (!), you could almost feel the energy lagging by September.
The year ended kinda "normal," rather than sustaining momentum that had built in 2024 and which had seen a huge boost early this year.
In our ongoing market commentaries, we've tried to capture the varying waves of vibes (and stats), talking both about "scary" trends and "normal" data, while pronouncing the Fall season "good" overall.
We'd rather tell a complicated story rooted in lots of data than try to "spin" you.
We're still working on figuring out what happened, and what might come next.
As we do, we can begin to say what the data might mean for you, specifically.
Stick around, and be a part of the ongoing chat.
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We welcome your comments and questions. Just email Dave!
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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 12/31/25:
> 33 active listings as of 12/31/25 (-17 from 12/15/25)
> 21 SFRs (-14)
> 12 THs (-3)
See the Inventory list as of 12/31/25 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.
Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:
> Tree Section: 5 actives (-4)
> Sand Section: 14 actives (-6)
> Hill Section: 2 actives (-4)
> East MB: 12 actives (-3)
We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.
Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 12/31/25".
