Jan. Sales 'Blow The Top Off' -- Manhattan Beach Market Update for 1/31/25

In January in Manhattan Beach real estate, This. Does. Not. Happen.

January is a sleepy month. Who's looking to buy or sell homes in a typical January?

The year 2025 is not sleepy. Indeed, the January numbers blow the top off of any prior records.

The impact of fire-displaced families – many from Pacific Palisades – entering the market is showing in dramatic fashion.

The combined value of MLS-listed properties that went into escrow in January was over $181.7M, more than $100M above the highest dollar volume of recent years.

Let's be clear: January 2021 was really busy. That $81.3 million figure might have stood for many years, if not for what's happening today.

In Jan. 2021, we were in the midst of the wild COVID-and-low-interest-rate market that blew up in Manhattan Beach. The full calendar year 2021 saw most blistering annual home sales pace likely ever in Manhattan Beach, certainly within the past 20 years, ending with 518 closed sales (see the graph here). (A typical year in Manhattan Beach sees about 400 home sales.)

That's the record sales pace that is now out the window, with an additional $100.3M worth of homes going into escrow during this year's January.

These huge totals come about in part because eye-poppingly pricey listings dominate among the sales, and of course because of the sheer number of new deals being inked all at once.

With 40 new escrows within January – 31 of them recorded between Jan. 16-31 – this year stands head-and-shoulders above each of the prior 11 years for which MB Confidential maintains accurate records.

This year's January saw 29% more new deals than the highest prior year's January (2015), more than double last year's total of 18, and more than triple the total seen in anemic January 2023. 

As we suggested, though, these relatively modest double-digit numbers and percentage increases don't really offer the tale of the tape.

You only get over $180 million by seeing huge sale after huge sale after huge sale after huge sale.

Out of 40 deals made off MLS-listed properties, 17 were priced at $4.8M or higher, with 12 at $5.950M or higher. Over $97M of the nearly $182M has been sold in the Sand Section.

If you widen the lens just a bit, you start to pick up off-market sales as well, such as 325 9th (5br/5ba, 3700 sqft.), which suddenly closed Jan. 30 for $9.100M without being marketed on the MLS. The listing agent has posted publicly that the buyers were a displaced family that had missed out on 440 8th (5br/6ba, 3610 sqft., $9.000M).

That total would bring the month's new escrows over $190M, but then you have to ask, what's missing?

Keep in mind, as we publish here this fine Thursday morning, it has not yet been a full month since the tragic L.A. County wildfires broke out. This impact on Manhattan Beach real estate likely has just begun.

The city and community of Manhattan Beach are rapidly re-calibrating as a favored destination for former residents of Pacific Palisades, as evidenced in part by last weekend's "Massive Welcome Party" (per MB News) for new families. (See "Manhattan Beach Residents Host Massive Welcome Party for Displaced Families.") Some are even calling MB "Pali South."

January's deals reflect the early vanguard of new families coming in. They're telling their friends. 

It might be time to get out a new record book, to start writing in it.

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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 1/31/25:

> 55 active listings as of 1/31/25 (+2 from 1/15/25) 

> 44 SFRs (+2)

> 11 THs (flat)

See the Inventory list as of 1/31/25 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 10 actives (+2)

> Sand Section: 25 actives (+3)

> Hill Section: 1 actives (-4)

> East MB: 19 actives (+1)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 1/31/25".