Q1 Bests 2025 - Manhattan Beach Market Update for 3/31/26

If you thought you'd have to wait a long time to see a first quarter that was busier for the Manhattan Beach real estate market than 2025's, you could be forgiven. It seemed crazy busy at the time.

But 2026 has just proved to be busier – by a smidge. 

With 89 new escrows, Q1 2026 had more new deals for homes inked than any year since go-go 2021, when mortgage rates were half or less than today's rates.

So what do we see here?

2026's first quarter beat out 2025 in a photo finish, 89 new escrows to 88. 

This year was above average, beating out the average from the 10-year period from 2016-25 (86) by 3 new deals. 

Those awkward post-COVID years are starting to look like they're in the rear-view mirror, with two years above average and those slower years, 2022-24, more and more looking like anomalies. (And here we're only speaking of 2024's first quarter. By Summer and Fall that year, a recovery was clearly under way in our local market, bringing momentum into the start of 2025.)

This can't be a complete surprise to regular readers here. 

After all, January took off like a rocket here, smashing records for dollar volume under contract for all years except 2025 – the single month with the greatest impact from fire-displaced buyers purchasing in Manhattan Beach.

February 2026 had more new escrows in Manhattan Beach than 2025, as we reported last month. 

But that was "only" a margin of 3 additional deals. In March, the improvement was far greater.

Last year, March saw 22 new pending sales. This year, 33 – a 50% increase year-over-year.  

As you look across several years' worth of data, you see that this year actually looks sort of average. 

And we'll take "average" if we can get it. 

All of this remains pretty amazing, in that 2025 ended without apparent momentum in the market. 

There were certainly bright spots in the Fall of 2025, which we called attention to when they seemed to cut against the trend toward slower sales pace and lower prices at some market tiers. 

But the reality is, the year ended with each quarter posting fewer sales than the one before it, a highly unusual pattern (seen in this chart). 

While pending sales were up year-over-year for Q1, closed sales were down year-over-year, at 76 this year. We have some hypotheses about why that might be, but we'll hold any speculation and do some more research. 

So, is this hoppin' activity going to just keep going as the Spring market takes shape? 

We'd hope so, but we also cannot be blind to, achem, external factors. (The real world, outside the bubble.)

A month ago, reporting on February data, we posed a sincere question about the market's activity level:

Might a shootin' war and escalating gas prices put a damper on it?"

The answer, in the data, appears to be "no." Nothing put a damper on March home sales activity here.

Of course, that "shootin' war" is still going on, and it's not just raising gas prices, but also hurting stock values and hitting mortgage rates, which have ticked up quickly. 

That will make for an interesting Spring, and, no doubt, a robust debate about expectations. 

We'll track the data. 

Below, our update continues with the Movers. "Movers" are the:

(1) newest listings,

(2) newest escrows and

(3) newest closed sales within each of our 2-week market update periods. 

Here are the Movers for March 16-31, 2026 (click any address to see the property):

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New Listings (14)

New Pendings (12)

New Sales (25)

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 3/31/26:

> 59 active listings as of 3/31/26 (+4 from 3/15/26) 

> 46 SFRs (+6)

> 13 THs (-2)

See the Inventory list as of 3/31/26 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 12 actives (+3)

> Sand Section: 28 actives (+7)

> Hill Section: 3 actives (flat)

> East MB: 16 actives (-6)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 3/31/26".