We track inventory as an important market measure.
But what it means at different times can be confusing, or even contradictory.
For one thing, having some inventory in the market is critical if we're going to have sales. That makes for a vibrant market.
Fewer homes for sale? Fewer sales.
But a surplus of inventory hanging around can be a sign of a market that's not vibrant – one where either there aren't enough buyers, or those buyers who are out there are delaying action, for one reason or another.
With a serious overhang of unsold inventory, a market can slow to a crawl. Buyers en masse begin to expect price declines, and wait for "later," hoping for the opportunity to negotiate.
This year, in a market that feels busy and more like "normal" than any recent year, we see two phenomena in the sales data:
1) More sales than in any of the prior 3 years at this point, and
2) More inventory on market than in any of the prior 4 years
It is as if these two things are related: More listings = more sales. Would you believe that?
Take a look at our first chart.
Having 93 listings active as of May 15, the Manhattan Beach market offered more choices to buyers than in any year 2021-24.
And yet, this is not obviously an excess of inventory.
Look at the 5 years from 2016-20. Inventory was over 100 at this time in each of those years. Those really weren't bad years at all.
Of those, only 2019, the year with the highest inventory at this time of year (123), wound up a bit soft. The year's sales total was perfectly average, at 391 (down just 2 sales from 2018), but 2019 worked out as one of the only calendar years in recent memory to see a median price drop for Manhattan Beach (-2%, to be exact).
Obviously, 2025's inventory total is 30 listings shy of that high peak, so we're not registering a very high risk here of having an over-saturated market.
Just in case, we broadened the lends to look at all parts of the prior 4 years. See our next chart.
What do we see here?
Turns out, this period's inventory of 93 listings is the highest seen in Manhattan Beach at any time of year since at least Jan. 2021. (In fact, the last time inventory was this high was Nov. 2020, at 109.) We just edged out June 30, 2024's total.
We're just about ready to declare this a return to healthy levels of inventory.
But maybe that's not the whole story.
We make graphic representations of data to see if trends become visually obvious.
And this chart shows a steep upward curve of homes for sale in Manhattan Beach recently.
That steep uptick might be a sign of a supply/demand imbalance: Too many more new listings emerging for the amount of buyer activity that is out there. As a result, more listings sit as new listings come out.
We'll want to watch out for that and see if a problem develops, with an ongoing inventory spike and/or changes in DOM or the "months of supply" measure for our local market. (We can calculate "months of supply" only at the end of each month.)
The increase in supply could also trace back to the fact that many sellers have gotten the word that this is a decent year to sell. You could see an increase in supply that's a bit faster than any increase in demand, but for how long?
Also, let's be sure to say: It's partly where the inventory is that makes a difference.
If we see a glut of, say, Tree Section homes of around 3000 sqft., that could be a serious warning sign – that's normally one of the most popular categories of suburban Manhattan Beach homes. If they aren't moving, worry. If we just have a bunch of $10 million-and-higher listings sitting, maybe there's less concern, because that's what they do.
As a seller or a buyer, you're most concerned with the market for your particular kind of property – whatever you're selling or seeking – and not so much the general trends in the state, county or city. The general trends do affect everyone, however.
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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 5/15/25:
> 93 active listings as of 5/15/25 (+14 from 4/30/25)
> 74 SFRs (+12)
> 19 THs (+2)
See the Inventory list as of 5/15/25 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.
Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:
> Tree Section: 14 actives (-2)
> Sand Section: 47 actives (+8)
> Hill Section: 10 actives (+2)
> East MB: 22 actives (+6)
We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.
Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.
Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 5/15/25".
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
