Local Market 'Recovery' Continued in First Half - Manhattan Beach Market Update for 6/30/25

The year 2025 was poised to see a bounce in the local real estate market, based on 2024 trends. Then came the tragic LA County wildfires that drove unprecedented sales early this year.  

Now that we're halfway through 2025, the wild trends of early in the year have calmed, but the recovery continues. 

Let's quickly refresh on what was going on before January.

Throughout the latter part of 2024, we published stats here at MBC showing how that year had begun to see a return to normalcy in local real estate. 

Upward trends were already apparent in Summer '24 (see "MB's Higher End is Moving.") In December '24, we said "Looks Like 2024 Will Be a Recovery Year." Then we saw that, in fact, the number of sales in all of 2024 was higher than 2023 (not too hard to accomplish), and looking up. It was Q1 and Q4 last year that saw the greatest year-over-year improvement. 

The promise of continued recovery in local home sales this year has played out, although of course some of the reason is the Q1 frenzy as people were relocating here. 

Sales were up 27% year-over-year for the first half of 2025, reaching 171 total. 

That figure is still a bit below the average for the past 18 years (184), as well as the median (185). 

We're basically on par this year with 2022, which is very notable. The first 5 months of 2022 were a continuation of the pandemic-fueled market that began in Summer 2020, crested in 2021 and only petered out with mortgage rate spikes in May '22. 

This year, Q1 saw what we've called a "gigantic, unprecedented rally" in local home sales. But then, from mid-March to mid-April, it seemed like someone had "hit the brakes," as new escrows slowed dramatically. 

Not to worry. Things did pick up again.  

But the data show a truly unique pattern this year when we compare Q1 and Q2.

This chart shows Q1 and Q2 for each of the past 10 years.

Every single year, except 2025, the number of sales in Spring (Q2) is higher than in Winter (Q1). Sometimes, the jump is drastic – closed-sales figures doubled, or nearly did, from Q1 to Q2 in 2017, 2021, and 2023.

This year's Q2 sales total (84) is better than 3 of the prior 5 years, but otherwise lagging. Most years saw 100+ sales in Q2.

There really was something astonishing about Q1, but you knew that. Dollar volume for all Q1 '25 closed-sales hit $367 million, making the quarter the 7th-busiest quarter of all time by this measure. It was head-and-shoulders above any other Q1. 

After Q2 calmed, the year 2025 took its place behind 2021's first half for total dollar volume, reaching $681.4 million.

This year's sales total was well short of the nearly $836 million total for all sales reached between Jan. 1-June 30 in 2021. But the total this year was good enough to rank as the second-highest first half of all time. 

That seems better than a mere "recovery," doesn't it?

What Changed in 2025?

There were three trends driving sales this year, as best we could tell.

1) Wildfire relocations – Everyone knows about the phenomenon of new buyers with deep pockets choosing Manhattan Beach after their home areas were devastated by the tragic January fires. This was a major contributor to the Q1 rush. We've also covered "the controversy" – the idea that there were "10 houses" that were notable sales, but that otherwise, relocations have had a modest impact. We think relocations are a real factor, and continue to be, but perhaps not the biggest.

2) Buyer trends from 2024 continuing – You can't pinpoint one thing that was behind the increased market activity of 2024, but it did seem to emanate from a sizable number of individual buyer decisions to jump back into the market. People had put off their plans long enough, no longer believed mortgage rates were due to dip substantially, and they liked what they saw out there. There's no market without buyers!

3) Sellers re-entering the market – The single greatest factor here in 2025 has been homeowners deciding to sell. The biggest "boycott" in the market from 2022-24 had been owners – tied down by the "golden handcuffs" of low mortgage rates – who were unwilling to sell, even if they kinda wanted to. Until this year, virtually every sale we were involved in for 2 1/2 years had a death, divorce or job transfer behind the sale. In 2025, we're seeing and hearing from people in all kinds of situations deciding that this is the time to put their homes on the market. This is the #1 factor of "normalcy" in the market today – even if there's no single cause behind it.

As good as things are here in MB and the South Bay this year, we continue to be pelted by news and analysis of the housing market nationally that's full of dire warnings, downbeat statistics, even speculation about a "buyer's market" taking shape. 

We'll keep tabs on what is going on outside the bubble, and watch out for signs that our "recovery" faces any jeopardy.

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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 6/30/25:

> 96 active listings as of 6/30/25 (-2 from 6/15/25) 

> 74 SFRs (-2)

> 22 THs (flat)

See the Inventory list as of 6/30/25 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 18 actives (-3)

> Sand Section: 50 actives (+5)

> Hill Section: 10 actives (flat)

> East MB: 18 actives (-4)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 6/30/25".