March, April & July Lagged Last 2 Yrs. - Manhattan Beach Market Update for 7/31/25

If you're keeping up to date, you know that this year in the Manhattan Beach real estate market has been mostly better than last year's "recovery year." 

A big part of that was driven by early demand for homes in the wake of the tragic LA wildfires. But most of the year, wildfire relocations have been only a part of the story.

After a slumpy April, we saw a renewed boost of home sales activity in May and June. It felt busy. 

Then came July. [Sad trombone.]

Pace of New Escrows Slows

We saw just 17 new purchase contracts written in July, down almost 50% from June, and below the pace from 2023 and 2024.

That pushed inventory to a year-long high of 100 listings at month's end. (We'll discuss inventory in a post later this week.)

As we researched the data for the chart on new escrows above, we almost wanted to fire whoever put all the numbers together. 

It turns out, 3 of the 7 months this year have lagged behind the previous two years in the pace of new escrows. March, April and July have all seen more sluggish demand for local homes than 2023 and 2024.

Sales in 2023 were so slow, it really stings to fall behind that year, even if it's just for some of the time. It's like when your team hosts a game against the doormat of the league, and yet your players just can't score. It can be dispiriting. Until you realize there's another game tomorrow. 

Among the other 4 months, 2025 has stood above both 2023 and 2024 in January (39 pendings), February (27) and June (33). That's good! May saw a tie with 2023 at 27 deals.

How have the real results – sales – fared? That's a good story.

With 206 closed sales as of July 31, the year is head-and-shoulders above 2024 (+26%) and 2023 (+48%).

The number is nearly equal to 2022's 209 sales.

That's nice to see. The first half of 2022 was really the "last wave" of the pandemic home-buying frenzy, accelerated by ultra-low mortgage rates. So, for this year to be anywhere near that pace feels impressive.

What's Slowing Sales? 

The right question to ask is the one just above. If, suddenly in July, fewer buyers were making deals, why?

There's no major external answer. 

For instance, mortgage rates have been very similar all year – even for a couple years. You can get a rate under 6% today with the right mix of factors in your favor. 

At least till last week's BLS report, everyone thought the national economy was performing just fine.  

And we certainly didn't see anything big change between June (high pace of sales) and July (meh).  

One thing we do note in a glance at a full set of pending data: The Sand Section is slow. 

Only 3 homes went under contract all across the Sand Section in July. 

But at month's end, more than half the inventory (52 out of 100 listings) was in the Sand. 

Are buyers boycotting the beach?

There is a pretty obvious rule in real estate sales: When a listing isn't moving, it's usually about price. Does this apply to the Sand Section in general? Do buyers need to see lower prices to be inspired?

Unlock the Sand Section somehow, and you might see the sales pace turn up. 

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Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 7/31/25:

> 100 active listings as of 7/31/25 (+9 from 7/15/25) 

> 78 SFRs (+8)

> 22 THs (+1)

See the Inventory list as of 7/31/25 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 17 actives (+2)

> Sand Section: 52 actives (+5)

> Hill Section: 10 actives (+1)

> East MB: 21 actives (+1)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 7/31/25".