MB Market Update for 5/15/19

By Dave Fratello | May 16th, 2019

Inventory is up from 100 this time last year to 123 listings, so that's a percentage of... oooh, oooh, I know this one! 23%.

There were more listings than 2018 had on May 15 in prior years: 109 in 2017, 111 in 2016. But this year is still marking out a new, recent high.

It's been like this much of the year, a little boost over 2018 but nothing very dramatic.

One way housing economists try to make sense of inventory levels is to look at demand versus supply, a metric known as "Months Supply." (We prefer "months of supply.")

The measure takes into account the number of homes going into escrow and estimates how long it would take to sell everything in the market.

Where do we stand there?

As of late April, Manhattan Beach was sitting at 3.4 months of supply, consistent with late 2018.

We marked a few other recent Aprils for comparison:

2.6 months in 2018

3.1 months in 2017

3.0 months in 2016

1.4 months in 2015

These figures are all calculated using a 6-month "rolling average," a way to flatten out monthly and seasonal differences but still capture a trend.

Conclusion: Our higher inventory now plus steady, but not crazy, pace of sales leaves us with the highest months of supply for this time of year for quite a while. Not since 2011 has the April figure been higher (4.5 months then).

There are two crests in the graph higher than the current 3.4 months, one hitting 3.6 in October 2017 and one at 4.2 months in Sept. 2016. Both of those upward trends began in Spring/Summer and peaked in early fall. This would tend to reflect higher inventory plus slower Summer months. (The months of supply tends to drop as Winter approaches because inventory drops steeply then, too.)

If you've gotten this far, you're probably ready to predict: Months of supply may very well hit a new (recent) peak by Fall 2019.

The competition: 5.0 months of supply in Sept. 2011, and 5.8 months in 2010.

There is some disagreement about whether you need 6 months of supply or only about 4 months of supply to declare that the balance has tilted to a buyer's market.

All of the last buyer's market here after January 2010 took place with less than 6 months of supply, so we're thinking it's closer to 4 than 6. But we shall see.

A few notable sales from this first part of May:

212 16th Street Manhattan Beach CA212 16th (4br/5ba, 4100 sqft.), new construx on a walkstreet west of Highland, closed for $8.395M, fully $400K below the start price.

Also in the Sand, the little half-lot landlocked cutie at 325 4th (2br/1ba, 650 sqft.) got very near asking price: $1.760M.

The Tree Section was mostly quiet with just 2 closings, but one was a biggie.

709 26th Street Manhattan Beach CA709 26th (5br/6ba, 5120 sqft.) got $4.550M in the end.

That's pretty near what comparable new construction has been getting, so, super.

That was a reasonable rise in value since the home was purchased new in 2013 for $3.700M, 23% over about 6 years. However, it wasn't the 50% jump they initially sought, listing at $5.495M in June 2018.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 5/15/19:

  • 123 active listings as of 5/15/19 (+6 from 4/30/19) 
  • 99 SFRs (+7)
  • 24 THs (-1)

See the Inventory list as of 5/15/19 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

  • Tree Section: 28 actives (+3)
  • Sand Section: 53 actives (+1)
  • Hill Section:16 actives (flat)
  • East MB: 26 (+2)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 5/15/19."

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