Our latest custom analysis of Manhattan Beach real estate data reveals that more than $245 million worth of property went under contract in the first 6 weeks of 2025.
Keep in mind, this total reflects new escrows only on MLS-listed properties. A few homes have also closed recently that had found buyers off-market.
This total is more than double the $119.6M worth of new purchase contracts written in the same period in go-go 2021. That was just a rolling start for a year that wound up with a chart-busting 518 sales citywide. (See annual data through 2024 here.)
It's true, the Jan. 1-Feb. 15 period actually had a tad more activity in 2022, with $124.8M going under contract in that span. However, that momentum did not continue – once the May 2022 mortgage rate hikes hit, the market froze and the year's sales fell off a cliff.
The first 6 weeks of this year beat 2022, tops of any recent year, by over $120 million.
This is only the latest look at purchase activity in Manhattan Beach in a market profoundly impacted by a wave of new buyers coming into town as a result of the recent, tragic L.A. County fires. (See one of our other recent reports here.)
Is the Market Still Rolling?
Come for the headlines, stay for the news.
After Feb. 15, sales activity slipped considerably in Manhattan Beach.
As we write late on Thursday, Feb. 27, there are only 6 new deals to report, totaling $17.6M, since Feb. 16.
Exactly one month prior, from Jan. 16-31, there were 30 deals totaling $130.4M.
Did someone slam on the brakes?
Is Manhattan Beach suddenly less desirable?
Did all the Palisades people already find homes?
There's no one answer. (And none of those are even good hypotheses.)
We just began the other day to share a "contrarian" point of view that's out there, which suggests that the market impact from the L.A. wildfires has been overhyped, and the impact is all but over.
We're not really in that camp, calling it hype.
The numbers are too big – too many people lost homes, too many people know someone who has moved to Manhattan Beach, there still seem to be too many potential buyers out there, waiting for the right thing. And there's still all those other buyers who have been planning to make a move to Manhattan Beach, regardless of the fire situation.
The cupboard is kinda bare, folks.
Yeah, there are 64 active listings in Manhattan Beach at this time, but precious few that seem like an obvious match for a family seeking a full-sized, move-in-ready house.
Bring us the usual amount of Spring inventory, and that will give us a good measure of actual demand.
Our advice to sellers today – a few of them are getting ready to go – remains that the Spring market is just getting started, there's still more demand than supply, and that well-priced homes will get absorbed.
We'd just be careful about being over-eager on a list price now, in case there really is a "lull" in the market, or even the perception of a lull. Buyers generally hate to be rushed, and will seize on any evidence that they are regaining leverage.
In other words: Sellers, it's still a good time for you, but don't get out over your skis.
And we'll watch the data.
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
