Not Worth the 2022 Price?

Whenever we try to analyze the local real estate market, we're required to look at gobs of data.

Don't get us wrong, we like to do that. Coffee and a spreadsheet in the morning? Sign us up!

But the real beacons that can help anyone understand trends in the market are same-house sales, with just a few years between trades. They can be clear, whereas larger market data can be more suggestive.

And 3212 N. Poinsettia (3br/2ba, 1225 sqft.) may be ready to provide such a data point now.

Back in March 2022, while the local market was still frenzied thanks to low interest rates, the very newly renovated home hit the market asking $2.599M. 

The questions then were not if it would sell, or if it would go over asking, but rather how fast it would sell, and how much over asking.

One clue to the market dynamics of that time: The listing agents put an offer deadline in the MLS, for the Tuesday after the first weekend. That's gutsy, and something many listing agents are superstitious about doing. You have to be sure it's all going to happen fast. 

It happened fast. 

After just 7 days on the MLS, 3212 Poinsettia sold for $2.850M, closing April 15, 2022. 

Three and a half years later, in Sept. 2025, it was time for a new owner. 

3212 Poinsettia came to market again (listed by Barret Pulver, Strand Hill Properties), with perhaps less of a markup than you might have expected. 

They began at $2.949M, just $99K over acquisition. 

This was already hinting that there's a big difference between Spring 2022 and Fall 2025. 

After the traditional Fall market (September/October) did not absorb the property, it was time to fish or cut bait. 

The sellers fished. 

A price cut of 5%, or $149K, came on Nov. 6, and by Nov. 7, the property was in escrow. 

The last asking, $2.800M, was actually less than the acquisition price. 

We'll have to see where it closes to know for sure how this story ends. But we can see now that not only are the sellers in position to possibly lose a bit on the trade, we might see a sale price go down over time. That's a rare sight in Manhattan Beach. 

Obviously that outcome would underscore the fact that the 2020-22 market was a crazy time. It could be one outlier, not a beacon. TBD.

In a post last week recapping several other recent sales (see "Recent Sales: Some Up, Some Down"), we did take note of an East Manhattan sale with trades in 2023 and 2025. 

That was 1833 8th (4br/5ba, 3668 sqft.), where the sale this year was "kinda flat," we said. 

In May 2023, this one sold for $3.900M in 4 days. 

But it has just re-sold for $3.950M, barely more. And it took 10 weeks, not 4 days. 

If you're worried about the market decelerating, or prices retracting – or if you're cheering for either trend – it's best not to make too much of Fall or Winter sales. 

These can be cases of people unloading just to get out and move on, and those might not be good market indicators. 

But you also should not ignore same-house "beacon" sales, either. 

They might be trying to tell you something.