recent sales

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Definitely one of the most common types of questions we hear – among working agents and regular working folks like you – is something like, "How Long Can This (Rally) Go On?"

Recently we've heard a buzz that there's been a "slowing down" in the Manhattan Beach real estate market in the first part of this year.

But that's not what the data say.

Closed sales are a looking-backward measure, to be sure, but they don't paint a picture of any slowing.

We're looking here at the number of closed sales in the first 3 months of each of the past 8 years. There are clear dips in 2008-2009, as the market wobbled and dropped.

After the recovery began in Q3 2009, the first quarter of 2010 was "normal" at 74 closed sales, the same level hit in 2014 (minus 1) and here

From the day the little cottage at 328 6th came to market, it was endangered.

With just 2br and 1300 sqft. of living space, it's undersized – by a lot – for a Manhattan Beach walkstreet home.

Its 2700 sqft. plot could host a 4100 sqft. new house.

And demand for South End flat walkstreet lots has probably never been higher, or less price-sensitive.

The last 3 flat walkstreet lots to trade were:

316 4th St. at $3.770M in March 2015. (Pictured.)

401 5th St. at $2.710M in September 2014.

440 8th St. at $2.700M in August 2014.

By the time 328 6th came to market in February, asking $3.199M, it was well known that a comp for the listing, the now-closed sale at 316 4th, was in escrow north of $3.7M.

So with really all of that $3.2-ish value in the land,…

Is this shaping up to be Oak Avenue's big year?

There have already been 5 listings on Oak in the first 3 months of 2015, of which 2 went quickly into escrow, and we might expect the same of the newest listings also. (Those are small, refreshed 2001 Oak (pictured), listed March 31 at $1.249M, and a probate-auction listing at 2701 Oak [with a faux start price of $799K].)

If all these early-2015 listings sell, Oak could be halfway to the street's 2014 sales total (8) before Memorial Day.

We looked back a bit further – as is our habit here at MBC – and found that Oak saw 10 sales in 2012 and 11 sales in both 2003 and 2004. Those are the recent peaks.

Sometimes, these sorts of patterns don't lead you to any one conclusion, but they might be indicators.

We…

We half-joked yesterday that when a home sits for 30 days in this market, it almost seems like a "crisis."

Where's my bidding war? Where are the all-cash offers?

Well here's a case of a home that took 5 full years to sell.

906 9th (6br/7ba, 5425 sq. ft.) is a Hill Section spec home that first came out in April 2010 asking $4.695M.

Along the way, asking prices dipped as low as $3.895M.

It's been rented out for much of its time since completion.

Around this time last year, 906 9th came to market asking $4.895M. It hung around for 9 months.

Finally, this week, it sold. The new closed price: $4.300M, somewhere in between the up-and-down asking prices of the last few years.

But now, through some combination of persistence, timing and luck, it's done.