-1% Since '07?

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, October 14th, 2011 at 3:21am.

The MB median price is down over last year – down even from the bottom year, 2009, west of the highway. So how would you do now if you tried to resell a 2007 purchase?

Lots of peak-year resales have trouble recouping their original sales prices.

To cite just one example we've recently cited here, the newer, ocean-view TH at 2211 Bayview fetched 13% less than its 2007 acquisition price in a recent open-market sale.  

No big surprise there – the years 2006-07 largely mark the peak of local RE. You expect some dropoff.

605 33rd just sold for $2.475m off market.
But as we see in the case of 605 33rd (5br/5ba, 3750 sq. ft.), an off-market sale might be the way to pull off a minor miracle – reselling for a 2007 price.

Late last week, 605 33rd posted a sale at $2.475m, just $40k below the March 2007 sale at $2.515m.

Total decline from peak: 1.6%. That's one-point-six, not sixteen.

It's quite a feat.

It's also the priciest sale among comparably sized homes in the Tree Section this year.

Here are this year's 10 other Tree Section sales over $2m for homes of similar or smaller interior size on single lots (sorted by priciest first):

616 17th is one of the priciest resales in the Trees in 2011.
616 17th (5br/4ba, 3650 sq. ft.) at $2.425m.

632 29th (5br/6ba, 3350 sq. ft.) at $2.312m. (Sold off-market.)

742 33rd (5br/5ba, 3975 sq. ft.) at $2.275m.

1816 Palm (5br/4ba, 3800 sq. ft.) at $2.181m.

709 25th (5br/5ba, 3800 sq. ft.) at $2.175m.

569 35th (4br/6ba, 3700 sq. ft.) at $2.175m.

660 29th (5br/4ba, 3450 sq. ft.) at $2.150m.

2604 Pine sold off-market for $2.135m - down 16% from Fall '06.
2604 Pine (5br/4ba, 3400 sq. ft.) at $2.135m. (Sold off-market after a run on the public market.)

2100 Pine (5br/5ba, 3100 sq. ft.) at $2.030m.

3005 Poinsettia (5br/4ba, 3250 sq. ft.) at $2.025m. (See "Prime Spot, 20% Hit.")

Interesting list there, including a few with significant losses against 2006-08 purchases.

The home with top billing above, 616 17th at $2.425m, was a lovely custom chateau on a bigger lot (6125 sq. ft. vs. 5400 for 33rd) in a transcendent location – 17th St. on the Martyrs hill.

Somehow, 605 33rd outsold that home, lot and location by $50k.

742 33rd lost 16% since 2007.
Third on the list is something of a neighbor – a few blocks east on 33rd is 742 33rd, also a newer build (2007) that resold recently. The $2.275m sale price translates to a PPSF of $573/PSF. (The home is slightly larger than 605.)

By that PPSF yardstick, 605 33rd has just sold for 15% more by the square foot.

Also worth noting about 742 33rd – those sellers didn't escape the effects of a popped bubble. (See "How Two '08 Purchases Fared at Resale.")

They paid $2.7m for the home new in June 2008 (discounted from a start at $3.3m!), but resold this year for $425k less – a drop of 16%.

That's more like the scale of the drop that you'd expect from peak till now.

2604 Pine lost 16% since 2007.
In fact, also on this list is another off-market sale that posted just last week, 2604 Pine, a custom home that had been acquired in Fall 2006 for $2.550m and resold for exactly 16% less, $2.135m.

Yes, that sale at 605 33rd was quite a feat.

We're still looking for others in the Trees that resold flat to a peak year. (Cue the crickets.)

Had 33rd gone for 84% of its 2007 price, that would have been $2.112m, or $363k less. (Not that the owners would have been sellers near that price.)

To be fair, that 2007 sale at 605 33rd was down from the asking price. A full year earlier, in March 2006, the listing for the (then) brand-new home kicked up at $2.750m. That may have seemed almost reasonable at the time – in those unreasonable times. So the ultimate acquisition price for the new home was down $275k (-10%) off the ambitious start from a full year earlier.

Moreover, the outgoing owners did put some time and money into some upgrades – flooring, outfitting the garage, adding a security system.

But it was still $2.5m in 2007, and as we've demonstrated here, no one has come close to 605 33rd yet in 2011 for a Tree Section resale of comparable size.
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