sales data

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It has been a while since we spoke specifically here on the blog to inventory levels. Let's try showing, before telling:

We had to adjust the top end of the scale (again) to make room for the recent-record number hit in mid-July: 133 homes for sale in Manhattan Beach. (After we closed data for this report, inventory temporarily hit 135.) 

One year prior, there were 71 homes for sale. So this year, while it's not double that level, it's close: 87% higher.

But there is a brighter side here. The sales pace is no longer lagging badly from what was seen in prior years.

In early April, just after the first quarter of 2016 closed, we published "Fewest Sales in 5 Years," showing, with data, that sales were trailing 7% behind recent years if we looked only at

If you're a writer or a reader (hi there!), you might know the old saw about headlines that are written in the form of a question.

According to what's known as Betteridge's Law of Headlines, if a header ends with a question mark, the answer is "no." (Example: A blog post titled, "Do Most People Know Betteridge's Law of Headlines?")

But here at MBC, we like toying with tradition. Defying expectations. Mixing it up.

Manhattan Pointe Townhomes Aviation Place Manhattan Beach CAAnd so it was with our headline on a December post about the "Manhattan Pointe" condo complex east of Aviation Blvd.: "Big Bump Coming at Aviation Place?"

Then, most definitively, our predicted answer to the question was, "Yes." A "big bump" was coming.

There had been no sales at all in the 28-unit complex of row-house-inspired townhomes…

A simple, reliable rental duplex in El Porto, or a comparable little SFR, has gotten very expensive the last couple years.

It was enough of a surprise to see $1.6's getting hit, when suddenly along came a $1.8M sale. Here are some highlights from recent sales up north.

116 Seaview Street Manhattan Beach CA116 Seaview (duplex, 1320 sqft.) is highly modernized, fully to the max.

And that shows in its forehead-slapping sale price of $1.799M in early December last year.

This sale carved out a new peak for Porto.

Something like that territory was reached in the sale of another duplex at 118 Kelp in January this year (duplex, 1450 sqft.) for $1.695M. That one's actually a 3-story structure built in the 80s, not one of the boxy 50s/60s structures that dominate El Porto.

221 El Porto Street Manhattan Beach CA221 El Porto (duplex,

There's not yet a unified theory (or even hypothesis) as to why, exactly, Manhattan Beach real estate inventory has been growing so noticeably this year.

One logical place to look for answers is in the question: How many homes are actually selling?

If we've got the mathematical formula correct here, fewer sales would mean that more homes would remain on the market at any given time. (Does that sound right?)

And, lo, the data do show that the pace of sales in Manhattan Beach has slowed. 

We looked at MLS-reported closed sales for two different stretches of time: Jan. 1-March 31 of each year (2012-2016), and Oct. 1 (prior year)-March 31 (current year).

Looking at the first quarter or Q4+Q1, the data show the same thing: The just-concluded Q1 of 2016…