median prices 
There are currently 34 blog entries related to this category.
Recording the Rise
Thursday, March 28th, 2013 at 1:25pm. 623 Views, 0 Comments.
In MBC's early days, we often needed to bring in references to the Case-Shiller house price index to describe what was going on elsewhere. We would then check in to see if it rhymed with what was happening in Manhattan Beach real estate.
Now, it's been about 4 years since we made a substantial reference to Case-Shiller, but it looks like time again.
We mentioned the index it in a Sept. 2009 post with Ben Bernanke's declaration that the housing-led economic recession was "very likely over" (was it?), with Case-Shiller indicating at around that time that a "bottom" was forming in housing markets broadly. (See our posts, "Very Likely Over" and "MB vs. CA & U.S. Trends," July 2009.)
Looking back, Case-Shiller's data properly "rhymed with" the course
…2012 Sales & Medians West of Sepulveda
Wednesday, January 30th, 2013 at 1:05am. 347 Views, 0 Comments.
Prices are always going to be higher near the beach, but in 2012, how much higher?
Last year, SFRs west of Sepulveda had a 13% higher median price than homes in all areas of MB, taken together.
That's one finding from our careful look at median price data for the year that was.
Looking only at SFRs, you see a median price west of Sepulveda of $1.639M for 2012. The result is not much different if you add in townhomes, with the median dropping just $40K to $1.599M.
Both figures are notably higher than the SFR total for all of MB for the year: $1.455M. (For more on how MB citywide compared to past years, see our year-end post: "2012 Wrap: More Sales, Tiny Median Bump.")
Exactly like we saw with the citywide sales data, the total number of sales west of the…
Last year, SFRs west of Sepulveda had a 13% higher median price than homes in all areas of MB, taken together.That's one finding from our careful look at median price data for the year that was.
Looking only at SFRs, you see a median price west of Sepulveda of $1.639M for 2012. The result is not much different if you add in townhomes, with the median dropping just $40K to $1.599M.
Both figures are notably higher than the SFR total for all of MB for the year: $1.455M. (For more on how MB citywide compared to past years, see our year-end post: "2012 Wrap: More Sales, Tiny Median Bump.")
Exactly like we saw with the citywide sales data, the total number of sales west of the…How 'Average' Price Misleads
Friday, January 25th, 2013 at 6:13pm. 294 Views, 0 Comments.
We go off on little data-nerd rants from time to time here at MBC, and today will be one of those days.
We recently reviewed a print publication which offered real estate statistics for 2012 for Manhattan Beach. (No names necessary here, we have a substantive point here, not a need for finger-pointing.)
This print pub offered the number of sales in various South Bay markets for 2012 and the "average price" of sales in each city.
Average price. You may instinctively know that it's irrelevant. But how irrelevant, and why?
First, why it's irrelevant. We have incredibly diverse housing stock in Manhattan Beach. If you include townhomes, then you've got $450K subunits of condo buildings along MBB, you have $800K old cottages along Marine, you've got all those…
We recently reviewed a print publication which offered real estate statistics for 2012 for Manhattan Beach. (No names necessary here, we have a substantive point here, not a need for finger-pointing.)
This print pub offered the number of sales in various South Bay markets for 2012 and the "average price" of sales in each city.
Average price. You may instinctively know that it's irrelevant. But how irrelevant, and why?
First, why it's irrelevant. We have incredibly diverse housing stock in Manhattan Beach. If you include townhomes, then you've got $450K subunits of condo buildings along MBB, you have $800K old cottages along Marine, you've got all those…
2012 Wrap: More Sales, Tiny Median Bump
Monday, January 7th, 2013 at 6:52pm. 314 Views, 0 Comments.
We're almost finished looking back at the year that was: 2012.
Before calculating sales data and median prices, we prefer to give agents time to enter late-in-the-year sales on the MLS. With a week's distance, we're now ready to close the books.
And here's the headline: The median price is clearly a lagging indicator.
We all know last year was busy, busy, busy, with demand significantly outstripping the supply of Manhattan Beach real estate for sale. We saw bidding wars. Crazy prices at times.
But the median price doesn't show that. For SFRs in all of MB, the median price went up by $5,000 last year. That's it. $5k.
As our graphic here shows (click to enlarge), the 2012 median price of $1.455M is just a teeny nudge over 2011's $1.450M, and it remains below…
Before calculating sales data and median prices, we prefer to give agents time to enter late-in-the-year sales on the MLS. With a week's distance, we're now ready to close the books.
And here's the headline: The median price is clearly a lagging indicator.
We all know last year was busy, busy, busy, with demand significantly outstripping the supply of Manhattan Beach real estate for sale. We saw bidding wars. Crazy prices at times.
But the median price doesn't show that. For SFRs in all of MB, the median price went up by $5,000 last year. That's it. $5k.
As our graphic here shows (click to enlarge), the 2012 median price of $1.455M is just a teeny nudge over 2011's $1.450M, and it remains below…End of Q3 Sales & Medians
Wednesday, October 17th, 2012 at 7:15pm. 200 Views, 0 Comments.
We like to use major markers like the close of quarters to take up questions of prices and sales pace.
We last did this in a major way at midyear in two somewhat detailed posts. (See "Sales Data for First Halves of '06-'12" and "More Median Price Data, 2006-2012.")
With 9 months (3 quarters) in the bag for 2012, here's what the data tell us. (Click either chart to enlarge.)
Citywide, we are running at a median price of $1,511,250 for SFRs in all areas. That's year-to-date, Jan. 1-Sept. 30, 2012.
This is the most modest uptick of 1% over the same period for 2011.
The median price is down, however, from 2010, by about 5%.
Sales volume was comparable for each of the past 3 years, 2010-2012, though 2012 marks a modest high for the past 4 years at 264 closed…
We last did this in a major way at midyear in two somewhat detailed posts. (See "Sales Data for First Halves of '06-'12" and "More Median Price Data, 2006-2012.")
With 9 months (3 quarters) in the bag for 2012, here's what the data tell us. (Click either chart to enlarge.)
Citywide, we are running at a median price of $1,511,250 for SFRs in all areas. That's year-to-date, Jan. 1-Sept. 30, 2012. This is the most modest uptick of 1% over the same period for 2011.
The median price is down, however, from 2010, by about 5%.
Sales volume was comparable for each of the past 3 years, 2010-2012, though 2012 marks a modest high for the past 4 years at 264 closed…
Quick Median Price Update
Wednesday, September 19th, 2012 at 8:25pm. 186 Views, 0 Comments.
We last really looked at median prices at the midpoint of the year. Let's check in quickly before Q3 closes in a couple weeks, when we can do a nerdier post with graphs and charts.
First off, in case you missed the last couple references to 2012 medians, see "Sales Data for First Halves of '06-'12" and "More Median Price Data, 2006-2012." You'll see what we mean by "nerdy" there.
So how are things now?
Median prices still don't show much of a hot market, but at least we can say prices aren't down now – as they were, surprisingly, at the midpoint this year.
We're going to compare nearly 9 months of 2012 data against full-year data from 2011.
2012 (thru 9/18): 259 sales, median price: …
First off, in case you missed the last couple references to 2012 medians, see "Sales Data for First Halves of '06-'12" and "More Median Price Data, 2006-2012." You'll see what we mean by "nerdy" there.
So how are things now?
Median prices still don't show much of a hot market, but at least we can say prices aren't down now – as they were, surprisingly, at the midpoint this year.
We're going to compare nearly 9 months of 2012 data against full-year data from 2011.
MB Citywide Data - SFRs
2011 (full year): 320 sales, median price: $1.450m2012 (thru 9/18): 259 sales, median price: …
More Median Price Data, 2006-2012
Friday, July 13th, 2012 at 3:17pm. 166 Views, 0 Comments.
As we noted first last week, the sales data for our little hamlet from the first half of 2012 don't exactly tell the story we expected.
Median prices down? Even with the mini-frenzy that has erupted over some listings this year?
Yes and no.
Citywide, the median price for SFRs is down by any measure. (See our first chart here; click to enlarge.)
That's true whether you look at the 6-month or 12-month periods ending June 30, 2012.
But West of Sepulveda, the median price is up. Again, by either measure.
The deeper you get into these data, the more you see that there's something for everyone.
You can prove prices are up by a little or (nearly) a lot. Or you can prove that prices are down. You can prove that West of Sepulveda is performing much better than MB as…
Median prices down? Even with the mini-frenzy that has erupted over some listings this year?Yes and no.
Citywide, the median price for SFRs is down by any measure. (See our first chart here; click to enlarge.)
That's true whether you look at the 6-month or 12-month periods ending June 30, 2012.
But West of Sepulveda, the median price is up. Again, by either measure.
The deeper you get into these data, the more you see that there's something for everyone.
You can prove prices are up by a little or (nearly) a lot. Or you can prove that prices are down. You can prove that West of Sepulveda is performing much better than MB as…
Sales Data for First Halves of '06-'12
Thursday, July 5th, 2012 at 5:54pm. 164 Views, 0 Comments.
We've been looking for a dataset big enough to adequately describe trends in 2012.
The conclusion of the first full half of the year June 30 gave us a lot to go on.
Surprisingly, we don't see the data telling the story we expected to hear.
We have run 4 separate cuts of the data, and 2 told us that MB median home prices are down year-over-year. That was for SFRs in all of MB.
For SFRs west of Sepulveda, it's a brighter picture. We're up 3% year-over-year if we use a full 12-month set of sales, and up 8% if we use a smaller 6-month set of sales.
We're going to post just the first chart from our data runs now. Presenting the full set of data in a comprehensible way is a might of a challenge. We'll get you that shortly.
For now, here's a look at just the first…
The conclusion of the first full half of the year June 30 gave us a lot to go on.
Surprisingly, we don't see the data telling the story we expected to hear.
We have run 4 separate cuts of the data, and 2 told us that MB median home prices are down year-over-year. That was for SFRs in all of MB.
For SFRs west of Sepulveda, it's a brighter picture. We're up 3% year-over-year if we use a full 12-month set of sales, and up 8% if we use a smaller 6-month set of sales.
We're going to post just the first chart from our data runs now. Presenting the full set of data in a comprehensible way is a might of a challenge. We'll get you that shortly.
For now, here's a look at just the first…Median Price Wobbles and Blips
Thursday, May 3rd, 2012 at 5:23pm. 173 Views, 0 Comments.
Oh, the perils of median price analysis.
With a relatively small number of sales involved, medians go up, they go down, they wobble.
Why, look what happened in the 7 days since we last crunched MB's median prices.
First, MB citywide flattened out.
Now, as we compare closed sales from Jan. 1-May 2 this year and last, the median price citywide is $1,505,750, down about $44k from last week, and just barely up over last year ($1.500m). (We did use Jan. 1-May 2 for both years.)
So much for that boost of +$50k / +3% we reported last week. (See "Are We Up Yet?")
Citywide, ha. Surely MB west of Sepulveda is still smokin'.
Well, less so now.
Last week, we told you that MB west of the highway was up 15% year over year.
We pointed out that this was a silly result drawn…
With a relatively small number of sales involved, medians go up, they go down, they wobble.
Why, look what happened in the 7 days since we last crunched MB's median prices.
First, MB citywide flattened out.
Now, as we compare closed sales from Jan. 1-May 2 this year and last, the median price citywide is $1,505,750, down about $44k from last week, and just barely up over last year ($1.500m). (We did use Jan. 1-May 2 for both years.)
So much for that boost of +$50k / +3% we reported last week. (See "Are We Up Yet?")
Citywide, ha. Surely MB west of Sepulveda is still smokin'.
Well, less so now.
Last week, we told you that MB west of the highway was up 15% year over year.
We pointed out that this was a silly result drawn…
Are We Up Yet?
Friday, April 27th, 2012 at 4:07pm. 166 Views, 0 Comments.
With the buzz in the air about multiple-offer situations and all, we've heard all kinds of blanket statements about the market's direction.
The only one that matters is MB Confidential having switched to saying this feels like a "seller's market." (We kid!)
We've heard others say flatly:
We've done that, with mixed results.
Looking purely at year-to-date numbers for SFRs, are we up by a bunch?
It depends.
Median price YTD for all of MB is up $50k, or +3%, over the same period last year. (That's Jan. 1-April 25 in our data.)
The median citywide for…
The only one that matters is MB Confidential having switched to saying this feels like a "seller's market." (We kid!)
We've heard others say flatly:
- "Our market is already up 5%."
- "The high end has never been stronger."
- "We're up 10% already and there are more bidding wars."
- "It's on."
We've done that, with mixed results.
Looking purely at year-to-date numbers for SFRs, are we up by a bunch?
It depends.
Median price YTD for all of MB is up $50k, or +3%, over the same period last year. (That's Jan. 1-April 25 in our data.)The median citywide for…
