Back Again on 35th

Posted by Dave Fratello on Friday, March 13th, 2009 at 3:49am.

MBC's pricing polls: Some like 'em, some hate 'em.

Typically, we pick a property that is fairly new to the market and appears possibly overpriced. We then ask readers to weigh in on what the final sale price ought to be.

We haven't run a poll in a while, partly because a year-end review of our polls showed that very few subject homes had ever sold. Many just quit the market.

That record has made it hard to compare readers' opinions with the market results, which was the original point. (Though you might infer, at least, that MBC had been doing something right: picking properties that were overpriced enough to need some help.)

It's with that background that we note a new (returning) listing that generally validates readers' opinions: 700 35th is back in the Trees, now at $2.349m. (Click highlighted address for pics & details via Redfin.)

Validation? Why, yes. Here's the background:
  • First, 700 35th is a lovely, large (5br/4ba, 3675 sq. ft.) home in a quiet location with a seriously large yard (for the Trees). It was built in 2003. For our love note to 700 35th, check out our original piece setting up the pricing poll.
  • In July 2006, perhaps at the peak of the local submarket, the home was purchased for $2.482m.
  • In June 2008, a different time, the home came up on offer, beginning at $2.697m(+$215k/+8% over acquisition). It dropped a bit to $2.649m.
  • MBC's pricing poll (click graphic to enlarge) found just 26% of readers believing the property would sell for more than $2.4m. But 59% said it would go for less than $2.4m. (Click here for the full poll results story.)
  • 700 35th canceled after 3 months at the end of September 2008.
  • The listing returned Thursday at $2.349m (-$133k/-5% off acquisition).
Our knack for precision may be complicating the story, which is really this: The sellers paid $2.5m, tried to get $2.7m, but now realize they'll be fortunate to get out at $2.3m.

MBC readers tried to tell them that last Summer.

There's still something to be worked out here, of course. The property hasn't sold. More readers said the property would sell below $2.2m than had said it would go between $2.2m-$2.4m. Today, anything's possible. We'll watch.

A bit more about these polls: So far, just 2 listings on which polls were run have sold.

On one, regarding 742 27th – another quiet Tree Section home MBC liked a lot – more bullish readers won out as the home sold above its adjusted asking price. (See that results story.)

On the other, regarding the Twins in the Trees, readers who found the original prices far out of line were clearly right. You'll recall that 3307 and 3309 Poinsettia were developed on a double lot that was split, two identical floor plans (5br/5ba, 3250 sq. ft.) with different styling. Start prices on these 2 were $2.795m more than a year ago.

Our poll found that only 27% of readers believed the twins would sell under $2.2m, but 3307 Poinsettia did (at $2.1m in late December) and 3309 Poinsettia is now down to $2.089m, so the more bearish voters had both nailed.
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