Poll Results: 1801 Elm

Posted by Dave Fratello on Sunday, December 6th, 2009 at 4:25am.

The results on our 1801 Elm poll are in. By late Sunday, we'll be able to do a very quick comparison of reader opinions with reality.

The public auction is slated for 4:45pm at the property Sunday night, Dec. 6.


Even though MBC offered 9 separate categories for reader votes, 3 categories spanning just $150k in difference got the clear majority of all votes.

Fully 55% of all those casting votes believe the auction price on Sunday will wind up between $700k-$850k.

To emphasize the consensus here, we've spun our pie chart around a bit; just note that higher guesses went to the left (counterclockwise, blues) while lower-price guesses went to the right (clockwise, orange/grey).

By a minuscule plurality, it was the narrow price range of $750k-$800k that drew the most votes (21%).

There's a clear rationale for this consensus. As referenced in our initial poll setup story (see "Pricing Poll: 1801 Elm"), the neighboring home at 1733 Elm sold in May for $801k. Though it needed work to be habitable, it wasn't a clear teardown like 1801. Still that value is a clear marker for 1801.

Now, the auction Sunday could get out of hand. With a buzz all over the property for weeks, and the emotion of the moment, someone could pay too much. However, MBC voters seemed to see the risk of a very high overbid situation on Sunday as limited. Just 11% thought the auction would get so crazy that someone would bid any more than $850k on site; only 5% were thinking more than $900k.

Could the on-site auction winner get a real deal Sunday? About a third of our voters seemed to think so, with 34% in total saying the auction would wind up below $700k. With a price in that neighborhood, you could argue that the auction would be coming in below market.

Of course, whoever "wins" on Sunday is still subject to being overbid in 4-6 weeks when the court takes up the subject of the auction. The final price for 1801 Elm won't be set till then. And with that check on Sunday's proceedings, you can see why bidding might not go too high right away.

First things first: We'll report on the auction outcome Monday morning.
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