Poll Results: 2312 Pine

Posted by Dave Fratello on Wednesday, August 12th, 2009 at 4:14am.

MBC readers generally agree that 2312 Pine (5br/5ba, 3150 sq. ft.) will sell for a markup of some kind over its July 2003 acquisition price of $1.559m. Well over half took that view in our newest poll.

So that's the good news.

The sweep of opinion here is that MB hasn't yet swept back into 2003 prices. (For the original poll story, see "Pricing Poll: 2312 Pine.") That would mean we're still doing better than most of SoCal and the hardest-hit markets in the nation.

On the other hand, most readers find the start price on Pine of $1.889m to be overly optimistic. About three-quarters of those voting thought at least a 10% price chop is in order, down to $1.7m or below. (Click graphic to enlarge.)

The greatest segment of all voters – a plurality of 32% – believed the sale price would come in between $1.6m-$1.699m. The vote distribution favoring that choice began early and remained consistent over several days.

And, as always, there were bears. A segment of 21% of voters said the sale price would wind up more or less flat to 2003 (the option of $1.5m-$1.599m included the acquisition price), while another 16% thought the sale price would dip below $1.5m. That'd be the extreme.

Recall that one of the reasons MBC put forth this poll was to try to gauge where current MB prices might be perceived to be now in relation to 2003 prices. So we'll look at the same results in a different way.

About a quarter of those voting estimated that the final price would be 9% to 20% higher than the 2003 value ($1.7m or higher). (Click graphic to enlarge.)

Most voters were not optimistic about a markup higher than 9%. Fully 69% of participants thought the final sale price would be no better than 9% higher ($1.699m), and might even be lower than the 2003 price. (Another 5% thought the home would not sell.)

Translation: The perception among our poll voters of the state of our market – at least for a newer Tree Section home – is that you can expect a markup of maybe 10% on your 2003 purchase.

Reader participation in this poll was very solid, near the highest total we've seen, despite the August vacation season/doldrums. We got that message: We'll look for more opportunities to open questions like this to you in the future.
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