Numbers Tell the Tale of '23 - Manhattan Beach Market Update for 12/31/23

As the year 2023 drew to a close, so, too, did a data set for one of the oddest years in local real estate over the past two decades or more.

Demand didn't exactly disappear, though there were fewer buyers overall, with many frozen out by higher mortgage rates.

Inventory was almost always ultra low. Fewer people liked the notion of selling and giving up a low rate.

In these challenging conditions, we did see 253 home sales in Manhattan Beach, but that was very, very low historically:

With only 253 closings within the calendar year, the year 2023 slumped far behind the "crash years" of 2008-09.

Indeed, 2009, which was mostly grim but had a busy second half, saw more than 100 additional sales above 2023's total, at 355.

As you can see above in our chart, 2022 had already set a recent record for futility, with only 322 sales, barely more than the year that the Great Recession took hold (2008), and well below 2009.

But 2023 had 21% fewer sales than 2022.

The average number of sales per year from 2008-19 (exempting pandemic-affected years) was 393 sales.

The year 2023 was 36% below that average. (And 37% below the average of 2008-21.)

Still, the second half of 2023 had a little bit of a (relative) rally. Q3 saw the most sales of any quarter:

In a more typical year, Q2 sees the most sales, with Q3 somewhere around that point.

On a percentage basis, this is also curious: 1/3rd of all 2023's sales occurred within 1/4 of the year: Q3. That's simply unusual. Most recent years saw more like 22-26% of a year's sales within Q3.

It's almost as if the second half of the year saw a little more activity as prices fell.

Wait, prices fell?

The year's sudden drop in the median price for Manhattan Beach homes is striking, although we have warned about this trend throughout the second half of 2023, so it may not feel like news. Here's how the median price fared throughout this year:

Ending at $2.800M, the median price was a little better than it was as of Nov. 30, when it was at $2.745M.

Still, this is a drop of 10% in one year, a phenomenon rarely seen in Manhattan Beach.

The median price here did drop 10% from Jan. 2008-Jan. 2009, and 20% total from Jan. 2008-Jan. 2010. But then, the economy was on its knees and the mortgage business had been scooped out. (See our full page about median home prices in Manhattan Beach, including links to past analyses.)

Context and timing are always important. Right now we're feeling like it's grim news to many folks to see the median home price drop 10%. But just 2 1/2 years ago, in July 2021, we were talking about the local median hitting $2.800M as being like a moon shot.

It seems the capsule has returned home.

------------------------------------------------------

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 12/31/23:

> 63 active listings as of 12/31/23 (-5 from 12/15/23) 

> 43 SFRs (-4)

> 20 THs (-1)

See the Inventory list as of 12/31/23 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 11 actives (-2)

> Sand Section: 33 actives (-2)

> Hill Section: 5 actives (Flat)

> East MB: 14 actives (-1)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB.

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 12/31/23".