There are currently 113 blog entries related to this category.
Monday, May 6th, 2013 at 3:30pm. 307 Views, 0 Comments.
Blame low inventory.
The one and only measure by which MB is not off to a gangbusters start this year is: The number of closed sales.
Not enough product, not enough sales. Evidence suggests MB is not lacking for demand at all.
To see some context, we looked back 10 years at the number of SFR sales in the first third of each year.
With 96 sales closing between Jan. 1-April 30 this year, we're slightly trailing the pace of 2012, and only barely above 2011. Really, the last 3 years look the same.
This year blows away the two popped-bubble years, 2008 and 2009, and is somewhat better than 2010.
But as bubbly as this year feels, it can't hold a candle to the 4 bubble years captured in our chart here. From 2004-2007, there were well over 100…
Wednesday, April 24th, 2013 at 10:22am. 190 Views, 0 Comments.
When we launched the new/improved MB Confidential about 2 months ago, we were hopeful that readers would take to the new tools we had made available. (See "MB Confidential's New Look & Tools.")
We're happy to see that you are using the site tools and info here.
As we anticipated, the most popular page, day in and day out, is the MB Dashboard. This has all the comings and goings – newest listings, newest pending deals, closed sales, etc.
In this very busy Spring market, the dashboard has proved to be a way to track the fast and furious action.
We met a new client recently who had been using both active listing searches and the MB Market Updates on pending/sold properties to gauge the market for his own property. (The most recent updates are…
Thursday, March 28th, 2013 at 1:25pm. 664 Views, 0 Comments.
In MBC's early days, we often needed to bring in references to the Case-Shiller house price index to describe what was going on elsewhere. We would then check in to see if it rhymed with what was happening in Manhattan Beach real estate.
Now, it's been about 4 years since we made a substantial reference to Case-Shiller, but it looks like time again.
We mentioned the index it in a Sept. 2009 post with Ben Bernanke's declaration that the housing-led economic recession was "very likely over" (was it?), with Case-Shiller indicating at around that time that a "bottom" was forming in housing markets broadly. (See our posts, "Very Likely Over" and "MB vs. CA & U.S. Trends," July 2009.)
Looking back, Case-Shiller's data properly "rhymed with" the course…
Tuesday, February 26th, 2013 at 7:10am. 537 Views, 0 Comments.
Hey, look. We’ve built something new!
And the change is good, with the new look, feel and function here at MB Confidential.
Building on our tradition of regularly producing insightful analysis of local real estate, we’ve now added the best hyper-local search and data you can find.
You can now search quickly, with one click, by region or subsection of Manhattan Beach.
Say you’re only looking in the Sand Section...
One click on our Sand Section search gives you the active listings in that area only. (Use the "MB Search" dropdown menu.)
You’re wondering how much Tree Section homes have been selling for recently?
One click delivers the past 6 months’ worth of sales in the Trees, listing the newest first. (Use the "MB Sales Data" dropdown…
Friday, January 25th, 2013 at 6:13pm. 349 Views, 0 Comments.
We recently reviewed a print publication which offered real estate statistics for 2012 for Manhattan Beach. (No names necessary here, we have a substantive point here, not a need for finger-pointing.)
This print pub offered the number of sales in various South Bay markets for 2012 and the "average price" of sales in each city.
Average price. You may instinctively know that it's irrelevant. But how irrelevant, and why?
First, why it's irrelevant. We have incredibly diverse housing stock in Manhattan Beach. If you include townhomes, then you've got $450K subunits of condo buildings along MBB, you have $800K old cottages along Marine, you've got all those…
Monday, January 7th, 2013 at 6:52pm. 448 Views, 0 Comments.
Before calculating sales data and median prices, we prefer to give agents time to enter late-in-the-year sales on the MLS. With a week's distance, we're now ready to close the books.
And here's the headline: The median price is clearly a lagging indicator.
We all know last year was busy, busy, busy, with demand significantly outstripping the supply of Manhattan Beach real estate for sale. We saw bidding wars. Crazy prices at times.
But the median price doesn't show that. For SFRs in all of MB, the median price went up by $5,000 last year. That's it. $5k.
As our graphic here shows (click to enlarge), the 2012 median price of $1.455M is just a teeny nudge over 2011's $1.450M, and it remains below…
Wednesday, January 2nd, 2013 at 10:35pm. 361 Views, 0 Comments.
Despite only 29 SFR sales in the Hills in 2012, there's a surprising variety of stories to tell.
Biggest $ Sale: 504 John
What we didn't have in 2012 was anything to compete with 2011's top sale, the way-over-the-top sale at 853 3rd at an eye-popping $16.0M. (See "2011: A Year of Highs, Part II.")
This is a warm, opulent, well-crafted house that feels new, even if it is all of a dozen years old (2000 build date).
It's still high enough up John to draw in very nice views to the south, west and even up toward Malibu up north.
Just about the only major…
Friday, November 30th, 2012 at 2:42pm. 229 Views, 0 Comments.
We took a look at sales volume year to date, and whaddaya know?
2012 has lurched ahead of 2011 with a month to go.
For SFRs in all of MB, we see 318 sales through Nov. 29.
That's a nice margin (+6%) over 301 for the same period in 2011.
For SFRs west of Sepulveda only, it's 223 SFR sales this year, 215 last year (+4% this year).
In each case, we're looking at MLS-reported sales. Yes, there's lots of off-market activity, but a good chunk of those sales do get reported on the MLS after the fact. (Like the off-market walkstreet sale Dave arranged.)
So if December sees a number of closed sales on pace with December 2011, we'll have a better year here than last. We see 20 closed sales (SFRs) in December…
Thursday, July 5th, 2012 at 5:54pm. 204 Views, 0 Comments.
The conclusion of the first full half of the year June 30 gave us a lot to go on.
Surprisingly, we don't see the data telling the story we expected to hear.
We have run 4 separate cuts of the data, and 2 told us that MB median home prices are down year-over-year. That was for SFRs in all of MB.
For SFRs west of Sepulveda, it's a brighter picture. We're up 3% year-over-year if we use a full 12-month set of sales, and up 8% if we use a smaller 6-month set of sales.
We're going to post just the first chart from our data runs now. Presenting the full set of data in a comprehensible way is a might of a challenge. We'll get you that shortly.
For now, here's a look at just the first…
Thursday, May 3rd, 2012 at 5:23pm. 201 Views, 0 Comments.
With a relatively small number of sales involved, medians go up, they go down, they wobble.
Why, look what happened in the 7 days since we last crunched MB's median prices.
First, MB citywide flattened out.
Now, as we compare closed sales from Jan. 1-May 2 this year and last, the median price citywide is $1,505,750, down about $44k from last week, and just barely up over last year ($1.500m). (We did use Jan. 1-May 2 for both years.)
So much for that boost of +$50k / +3% we reported last week. (See "Are We Up Yet?")
Citywide, ha. Surely MB west of Sepulveda is still smokin'.
Well, less so now.
Last week, we told you that MB west of the highway was up 15% year over year.
We pointed out that this was a silly result drawn…