Football and basketball feature exciting fourth quarters.
Real estate sales – not so much.
In Manhattan Beach over the past 20 years, the last 3 months of the year have seen fewer sales recorded than any other quarter. (To be fair, though, based on total sales over 20 years, the 4th is nearly tied with the 1st…
Football and basketball feature exciting fourth quarters.
Real estate sales – not so much.
In Manhattan Beach over the past 20 years, the last 3 months of the year have seen fewer sales recorded than any other quarter. (To be fair, though, based on total sales over 20 years, the 4th is nearly tied with the 1st quarter.)
According to figures from Dataquick, processed by MBC, the percentage of all sales recorded in a given year that were recorded in the 4th quarter
averaged 22%.
In an even distribution, of course, 25% of all sales would close in each quarter. Both the 1st and 4th quarters averaged 22% over this period.
In the past few years, as our graph here shows
(click to enlarge), the 4th has been even more of an afterthought. From 2004-2007, the number of sales in the 4th was 20% or less of the yearly total.
Last year, the reason for the 4th's anemic performance was obvious. The credit crunch spooked the local real estate market in a palpable way in late Summer. (The headlines then became too much to ignore.)
It was a big contrast to the Great Spring Rally of 2007, a flurry of sales in the first part of the year, particularly March through June.
Once the slowdown took hold, the percentage of sales in the 4th quarter of 2007 hit a
record low for 20 years at
15%. The previous low was 18% in both 1994 and 2004.
We figure some of you are wondering which quarter is best, if the 1st and 4th both average 22%. Over 20 years, the Dataquick numbers tell us that the 2nd is best (April-June,
29%) and the 3rd (July-Sept.) trails just a bit at
27%.
Why do these data matter now?So far, 2008 sales in MB are well off pace from 2007. (More on that later this week.) And 2007 was the slowest in 20 years. (See "
Slower, Slower, Slower" [covers 2000-2007] and "
Maybe It Can't Get Worse" [covers 1988-2007].)
Now the credit markets are locked up, banks are failing, Fannie and Freddie have been socialized and some kind of additional bailout related to bad mortgages is taking shape.
If demand craters again in the 4th quarter this year, it won't be a surprise, but in matching it up against another sluggish year (2007) with a horrid 4th, we'll have something to measure against.
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of April 1st, 2023 at 2:45am PDT. This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.
