Did You See Inventory Jump?

By Dave Fratello | April 13th, 2018

Now, when was it that we were talking about how inventory was consistently lower this year than last year, while the sales pace was basically steady?

Oh yeah, yesterday.

The inventory figure we used was 76, representing inventory on March 31, date of our last MB Market Update.

Mostly, since that time, inventory has hung around in the low 80s.

Until today, Friday, and... wow.

Would you believe 103?

If we're still at that point by Sunday, when our 4/15 Market Update is ready, you're going to see inventory higher than 2017's inventory for the first time all year.

As our chart here shows, 100+ listings will put 2018 just a bit under 2016's figure of 111.

We're basically certain to see a figure higher than 2017's 91 listings on April 15 last year.

Nerdy note: The chart extends to April 15 for 2016-17, but we used the April 13 figure for 2018.

How did this happen?

We've seen 24 new listings come to market in Manhattan Beach in just 7 days. Of those, 18 came out in the last 3 days, and 9 on Thursday/Friday.

Plus, a few homes in escrow as of our March 31 update fell out of escrow later.

Why the rush of listings now? It's hard to say. Easter week is often slow, but the rush follows immediately. Not so this time... all of this activity came after public schools came back from Spring Break.

If the end of the break is a factor, it illustrates again something that doesn't need to be true, but often is true: The local real estate market is slower when the kids are off school.

It's not that the kids are the buyers, or that buyers already live here and are away with the kids, but still, there's some relationship, surely.

Maybe brokers are away with their kids and don't want to work during Spring Break?

Don't bet against that hypothesis.

Disclosure: Dave took a few days off last week. But we did work, and a Confidential Realty listing came out last week and sold right away.

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