People are spending a lot less these days on Manhattan Beach real estate.
Well, not less on the actual houses. Prices are pretty resilient. They've stopped dropping. Overbids are common again.
There are simply fewer people buying fewer houses. It has been a steep dropoff after a frenzied 2020-22 run.
What's that, you say? You'd like some data, please?
We're here to help.
Let's take a look in detail.
First, keep in mind that the data here represent 12 months' worth of home sales in Manhattan Beach, concluding with May 31 of each year. We total up the full value of all homes sold and reported on the MLS to report out these figures. By nature, the data looks back, starting with the prior Summer, but also encompasses the first part of each Spring's market.
We had dollar volume in local home sales under $2 billion for 2014-16, but the figure was rising incrementally from the $1.6s to the $1.8s.
A rally year in 2017 saw the $2 billion mark exceeded for the first time for a May 31 data set.
Incremental rises continued in 2018-19, before a pandemic-induced slide in May 2020. (That year was like the year without a Spring [market].)
The May 2019 to May 2020 dropoff was nearly $500 million, a whopping 20% drop in one year, and the May figure was under $2B again at $1.880B.
Both of the next two years, 2021-22, saw an incredible bounce. The $3.24B sales volume as of May 2021 was a shocking 72% rise year-over-year, and a 37% jump over the prior record, from 2019.
There was a slim rise again in May 2022 to $3.28B, but then...
May 2023's 12-month sales volume of $1.940B has now fallen back under $2 billion, down 41% year-over-year.
Now, May seem a little bit arbitrary for a measuring point. It's just the most recent data we have.
But we can also look at the full set of data going back 10 years.
The fuller data set here doesn't change the basic picture. It just gives you an even better look at the sharp rise (mid-2020 through Summer 2021) and the almost equally dramatic slide in sales volume (March 2022 through the present).
As of May 2023, sales volume is 46% below the peak, and only a little above the recent low point in June 2020.
Put it this way: If there's $80 million or more in sales "missing" in next month's data, we could see June 2023 go under the June 2020 low.
No 12-month sales volume figure for Manhattan Beach has been lower than June 2020's since Sept. 2016, when it was at $1.84B. Golly, if we're going to be looking back more than 6 years, you have to at least consider adjusting that 2016 figure for inflation.
What we're really saying here is that there is no recent comparison to describe the anemic amount of money being spent on local homes.
And these low, low figures are coming in while prices remain high, high, high. So it takes fewer sales to reach thresholds like $1.8B, $2.0B, even $2.5-$3.0B.
We all know that the problem is inventory, not lack of buyer interest. There are enough buyers out there to sustain a healthy market right now.
Lower dollar volume is just one way of saying there aren't enough sellers.
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
