Hockey Stick Growth for Home Sales - Manhattan Beach Market Update for 10/31/21

By Dave Fratello | November 3rd, 2021

Wherever you look in statistics, one of the most unique features you might find is a long series of stable data, followed by a jump.

It's the "hockey stick," a sudden rise in the data being plotted.

Right now, we've got a hockey stick right here in Manhattan Beach.

It's in the amount of money plunked down for real estate in our city in just the past 12 months.

At the end of October, that figure stood at $3.552 billion.

With a B.

It's nearly double the dollar volume for Manhattan Beach home sales at the recent, depressed point of June 2020, when the prior 12 months' worth of sales stood at only $1.862B. Notably, that low point last year was "missing" the Spring market of 2020, where March-May sales were steeply depressed by pandemic shutdowns.

But as you see in our new graph, the rise here is not only by comparison to a depressed point.

Local real estate sales are categorically higher than ever before.

A recent peak on the chart is worth looking back to: February 2018 saw $2.473B in sales over 12 months. That included most of go-go 2017, but also included the traditionally slow months, for closings, of December through February.

Today, we have $1.079B more in home sales, a 44% increase over that Feb. 2018 peak.

When we last featured this dollar-volume stat, it was 11 months ago, when the total had reached a then-record-high $2.486B. (See: "New High Hit for Dollar Volume in Manhattan Beach Real Estate.") We're not stuck down there anymore.

How is this happening?

Volume, volume, volume.

The number of sales within 12 months continues at a breakneck pace. See this new graph. There's a "hockey stick" in these data, too.

In data going even further back, to 2008, we can't find a time where more than 450-ish homes sold within any 12-month period here in Manhattan Beach.

But we're over 500 sales (annualized) for 5 straight months running now, with a slight taper to 526 sales from Nov. 1, 2020, to Oct. 31, 2021.

The fact that prices are also rising, perhaps 10% or more for various properties within this year, adds to the mix.

Side note: Nobody seems to be saying the word "bubble" these days, so don't you start, OK? (Well, there was this CNN Business article last week, but... c'mon, it's CNN.)

What we have is unique market conditions, with ultra-low rates and inventory, rapid price increases, a bit of a frenzy overall, but we're not talking about selling tulips here.

Here's the rest of our local real estate market update report for the period ending 10/31/21:

> 46 active listings as of 10/31/21 (-9 from 10/15/21) 

> 34 SFRs (-5)

> 12 THs (-4)

See the Inventory list as of 10/31/21 here, or see the MB Dashboard for up-to-the-minute data.

Active listings by region of Manhattan Beach in this report:

> Tree Section: 11 actives (+2)

> Sand Section: 26 actives (-5)

> Hill Section: actives (+1)

> East MB: (-7)

We're also providing a report on closed sales by region of MB

Sales data, including PPSF for all properties, are organized by sub-region of Manhattan Beach.

Here's a link to the spreadsheet: "MB Pending/Sold as of 10/31/21".


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