Manhattan Beach Median Price Drops 3% from Peak

It was a good run.

Manhattan Beach median home prices rocketed in recent years. Now, the median price is declining.

Each month of 2023, the median price has been lower than the month before.

At $3.060M, the median as of March 31, 2023, was 3% below its peak at $3.166M in September 2022.

Obviously, it's no cause for panic, and not at all unexpected. We did say very early this year:

Median prices do tend to lag some other indicators. As we have noted more than once, data showing that prices have come down in Manhattan Beach is still mostly anecdotal.

.. it's more about individual homes selling for less than expected, or less in the second half of the year than they clearly would have sold for in the first half.

We calculate the median price using a rolling 12-month set of data, so it should be expected to move more gradually in either direction.

As of March 2023, the median price was only a tick above the median from 13 months earlier, Feb. 2022, when it was at $3.048M. It probably would not be shocking to see all of the 2022 gains disappear as this year's data continue to come in.

Our first chart above looks only at 24 months' worth of data, and displays an incredible rise from $2.700M two years ago, so that even with a dip, right now we're still 13% above March 2021. (Nerdy note: The chart above uses $2.500M as a base, to emphasize the rises and drops.)

Someone out there is saying: "Yep, and we're going to be giving up all of that 13%, too!"

Anything's possible, but from this seat, it looks unlikely that there would be a continued decline that sheds more than 10% from today's median home value in Manhattan Beach.

Back to anecdotes for a moment. What we saw last year as the market reacted, chaotically, to interest rates, was individual homes selling for about 6-10% less in the later part of the year than they would have while rates were low early in the year.

It was a remarkably quick, real-time correction, owing to a spike in rates – the mortgage rates offered to buyers more than doubled in many cases. That's not the proverbial "sand in the gears," it was heavy gravel. Still, we didn't see 15-20% drops in the values of sold homes.

Today's Spring 2023 market doesn't feel like a declining market out on the front lines, but again, this is a bit anecdotal. 

Low inventory is keeping a solid "floor" under prices, and some market segments (especially near $2M) are very busy, even competitive, all over the South Bay. Manhattan Beach has been busy at all price points recently.

And as "bad" as rates look (it's all relative!) on a casual search, we know of programs available to local buyers that make middle-5% rates an option, and with special programs, sub-5% loans with no points needed. That's not horrible.

A time in the market like this is going to generate conflicting data.

In context, Manhattan Beach still benefits from an incredible jump in values over 2 years. (See our chart below, which features year-end median prices for each year.)

We'll see how much of that gain local real estate can hold onto as the next 1-2 years unfold.