By late 2008, it was readily apparent that the whole spec-construction game in MB was nearly over for this RE cycle.
Boldly into those choppy seas dove the builders of 2401 John. They acquired the lot for $1.189m in October 2008, and about 9 months later have given birth to a sparkling new speckie.
It might be one of…
By late 2008, it was readily apparent that the whole spec-construction game in MB was nearly over for this RE cycle.
Boldly into those choppy seas dove the builders of
2401 John. They acquired the lot for
$1.189m in October 2008, and about 9 months later have given birth to a sparkling new speckie.
It might be one of the last new homes to hit the market in the Tree Section for a while.
As MBC noted in detail in the story setting up our most recent pricing poll (see "
Pricing Poll: 2401 John"), open-market sales of comparable new construction have been coming in at or below
$1.9m for the past 6 months. Those sales have firmed up the trend away from $2m+ prices that had been the norm for several years prior.
But 2401 John starts at
$2.499m. That's to be justified in part because it's built with more quality than some of your standard cookie-cutters, and partly because of a location the listing calls a "ten" (with which MBC disagreed).
So what might 2401 John fetch when the builders reel in a buyer?Half of MBC readers voting in our poll thought the home could get
$2.0m or more. That's a vote of confidence in the final product here, given the recent history of spec sales.
Few thought that $2.499m start price would be met, but a respectable
14% total thought the home would go for $2.250m or more.
Most of the $2.0m+ votes came in the range of $2.0m-$2.249m –
36% in all.
If half of those voting thought 2401 John would go above $2.0m, you know what that means:
Half didn't.The plurality in this poll,
29%, was made up of the most pessimistic voters – those who felt the final sale would be like the others in recent months, below $1.9m.
Hedging it a little bit: the
16% who thought the sale would be between $1.9m-$2.0m.
The color-coding in our pie chart above offers a somewhat simpler way to view the results, roughly in thirds:
- One-third suggested $2.1m-$2.499m
- One-third suggested $1.9m-$2.099m
- Almost a third said below $1.9m
The listing is still fresh, and there could be plenty of time to watch this story play out. New homes that have sold recently in the Trees have logged about 100-150 days on market typically, with 300+ DOM not at all uncommon. John is trying to buck a pricing trend – maybe the DOM trend as well?
Please see our blog disclaimer.
Listings presented above are supplied via the MLS and are brokered by a variety of agents and firms, not Dave Fratello or Edge Real Estate Agency, unless so stated with the listing. Images and links to properties above lead to a full MLS display of information, including home details, lot size, all photos, and listing broker and agent information and contact information.
Based on information from California Regional Multiple Listing Service, Inc. as of March 18th, 2024 at 7:55pm PDT. This information is for your personal, non-commercial use and may not be used for any purpose other than to identify prospective properties you may be interested in purchasing. Display of MLS data is usually deemed reliable but is NOT guaranteed accurate by the MLS. Buyers are responsible for verifying the accuracy of all information and should investigate the data themselves or retain appropriate professionals. Information from sources other than the Listing Agent may have been included in the MLS data. Unless otherwise specified in writing, Broker/Agent has not and will not verify any information obtained from other sources. The Broker/Agent providing the information contained herein may or may not have been the Listing and/or Selling Agent.