We've been looking for a dataset big enough to adequately describe trends in 2012.
The conclusion of the first full half of the year June 30 gave us a lot to go on.
Surprisingly, we don't see the data telling the story we expected to hear.
We have run 4 separate cuts of the data, and 2 told us that MB median home prices are down year-over-year
. That was for SFRs in all of MB.
For SFRs west of Sepulveda
, it's a brighter picture. We're up 3%
year-over-year if we use a full 12-month set of sales, and up 8%
if we use a smaller 6-month set of sales.
We're going to post just the first chart from our data runs now. Presenting the full set of data in a comprehensible way is a might of a challenge. We'll get you that shortly.
For now, here's a look at just the first 6 months' worth of sales from 2006-2012, a 7-year span that includes the last of the boom years, our version of local bust, and the recovery that appears to be under way. (Click chart to enlarge.)
What you're seeing here is that sales totals are up a tiny bit over last year, whether we look at all of MB or West of Sepulveda only. (That's impressive given how tight inventory has been.) In fact, sales volume is more in line with 2006-07 than most of the down years.
Median prices, comparing just Jan. 1-June 30 for each year, are down year-over-year for all of MB, up notably (by $130k/+8%) for west of Sepulveda.
Current medians for the 6-month period ending June 30:
• All MB: $1.531m
• West of Sepulveda: $1.740m
As promised, we'll dig deeper into all of this, and the somewhat confusing up/down trends, in a post very soon.