Shift in 3BR Tree Section Prices

By Dave Fratello | July 21st, 2014

We have started to see the cost of a 3BR home in the Tree Section rise along with the rest of the market.

As land values creep into the $1.3-$1.7M range (or higher!), depending on lot size and location, you can really put a pretty penny into buying an actual, habitable house on one of those plots.

Here we take a look at the distribution of sales prices for 3BR homes in the Tree Section, and how the mix of prices paid has shifted far to the upper end. Our first chart compares just 2 years, 2010 (full year) and 2014 (year to date).

So here you see that in 2010, a 3BR house in the Trees was pretty likely to trade under $1.2M. Fully two-thirds of the sales that year were in those 2 lowest tiers.

Fast forward to the current moment, and in almost 7 months of 2014, all of the 3BR's in the Trees have sold in the top two tiers: $1.3M-$1.399M and $1.4M+.

Now that we've got you watching the compare-and-contrast data in bar chart form, let's look at 5 years' worth of data.

One of the things you notice here is that even last year, 2013 (light blue), there were plenty of sales on the lower tiers – 12 sales under $1.3M and 19 over.

You can scope out the gradual shift from heavier numbers in the lower tiers (under $1m up to $1.299M) with each passing year.

To help you a little more understanding of these data, we selected Tree Section sales only and dropped out all sales on Rosecrans. Lots are much smaller on Rosecrans and values have typically been much below the rest of the Tree Section.

Besides dropping out Rosecrans sales, we made no other adjustments for home size, lot size, home condition or location. If it had 3BR, it's on this list.

Here's a quick look at the high and low prices for each year:

With time, the lows get higher, and the highs get higher.

This year's high (to date) is in a prime pocket of the Tree Section, the southern hill near American Martyrs. That part's no big surprise, but the $2.550M for 632 12th does still qualify as a pretty big surprise.

The smallest among the five $2M+ houses with just 3BR to sell this year in the Trees was the great remodel at 2709 Laurel (3br/3ba, 1900 sq. ft.), right at $2.000M.

Last year, the two highs were 500 14th (nice remodel near town, but on Ardmore) at $1.979M and 1312 Walnut at $1.760M.

Among the 2014 sales of smaller 3BR homes, these five stand out:

  • 768 26th (3br/2ba, 1400 sq. ft.) at $1.900M
  • 1500 Walnut (pictured) (3br/2ba, 1200 sq. ft.) at $1.650M;
  • 2616 Pine (3br/2ba, 1340 sq. ft.) at $1.622M
  • 1404 Pine (officially 3br/2ba, 1165 sq. ft.) at $1.475M; and

It's an impressive roundup.

But there are still 5 months left to fill out the whole picture.

Active today with just 3BR in the Trees:

  • 3300 Palm (3br/3ba, 1800 sq. ft.) asking $1.749M;
  • 1308 Elm (3br/3ba, 1400 sq. ft.) at $1.649M;
  • 1144 Highview (3br/4ba, 2800 sq. ft.), with ocean views, asking $2.849M.

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